TFT Issue 43!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Been a barren couple of days – hope my luck isn’t turning, although it usually does at somepoint, sadly!
Featured game
Independiente vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores clash in Argentina between giants Independiente and Godoy Cruz de Mendoza. Hosts Independiente should be expected to turn it on in games of this calibre given their prestigious past but I’ve reason to believe otherwise tonight.
Independiete, like all sides in South America, would prioritise the Copa Libertadores over almost anything. That’s pretty much a given thing, really. However, there’s another factor here that has crept into the equation that not many people have considered and that’s the fact that Independiente are actually dangerously close to the relegation zone. If you don’t know the Argentinian Primera Division format then you will most likely be confused as to what I mean by simply glancing at the table so just take my word for it – Independiente are in trouble. As a result, Independiente ended up fielding a team of reserve players during their recent trip to Ecuador to face Liga de Quito and they were subsequently torn apart, losing 3-0 in the end. However, the plan backfired on manager Mohamed as Independiente were then destroyed 3-0 again although this time it was the league game against Arsenal de Sarandi just a few days ago so now he has the fans on his back, a very nervous and demoralised team, and also a rather demanding board. On one hand, Independiente do want to play well in a competition that their fans believe should be something that they’re in year after year but they have to prioritise avoiding the drop and I expect that to happen again tonight. The big names that have been left out of the squad altogether are Silvera, Rodriguez, and Velazquez, all of which affect the team with their absence anyway. However, if Mohamed rests players again then Independiente are really going to struggle here, which is precisely what I expect to happen.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza have made no secret whatsoever of their decision to prioritise the Copa Libertadores and what else would you expect from them on their maiden voyage in this competition? The Copa Libertadores is the lifeblood of any die-hard fan of a South American club and given that Godoy Cruz de Mendoza are very much a tenacious and determined side at the most average of times, I suspect we’ll see an even more enthusiastic display tonight. They’ve named a strong line-up for this game following their 2-3 defeat against Colon de Santa Fe last match in which they rested some key players ala Salinas and Rojas, although Rojas did make an appearance in the second-half in an attempt to bail out his losing side, although it was to no avail ultimately. Godoy Cruz de Mendoza embellish what this tournament is all about by working hard in each game and playing good football so I think they’ll be very motivated for this game, especially with Independiente in such a precarious placing domestically, so I fancy a strong away display here.
Quality-wise, I’d favour Independiente to win this name if they named a full-strength squad. However, Mohamed appears to be leaning toward resting players ahead, especially by not naming talismanic striker Silvera in the squad for this game (amongst others) so the omens seem to suggest he’ll rest more here. Even so, Independiente will be nowhere near as strong without those three so I give the advantage to their feisty visitors tonight. I’d approach with caution as I would with all South American away wins but for me, backing Godoy Cruz de Mendoza to win this game with draw no bet cover at a decent price of evens really appeals to me here.
Team news – Independiente miss Silvera, Rodriguez, and Velazquez.
Verdict: Godoy Cruz de Mendoza to win with draw no bet at evens.
Additional game
PSV Eindhoven vs Rangers – home win with -1.5 handicap at 8/5.
I can’t help but feel that the odds here are suspiciously generous. Both sides are very experienced in European competition, admittedly, and I certainly don’t like to underestimate Rangers, who are one of the hardest sides to break down when they play well. I have no doubts in my mind whatsoever that Rangers will line up with a 5-4-1 here and thus PSV will find it hard to score.
However, let’s not overlook Rangers’ lengthy injury list here. Out for this game is a very experienced and important defender – Papac – as well as the two leading goalscorers currently in their team – Naismith and Jelavic respectively. They’re also missing midfield tough guy Lee McCulloch and they’ll miss his steel in this type of game a lot. I think Rangers’ first-team would stand a chance of taking a 0-0 from this game given then their admirable never-say-die attitude and dogma for tactics but without some really important players, I have to severely doubt their chances here.
PSV welcome back Toivonen for this game as his six-match ban for elbowing Jan Vertonghen in the “El Clasico” of the Eredivisie only applies to domestic games but whether Fred Rutten decides to utilise him or not is another matter entirely. Nonetheless, Lens has looked good since finally shaking off a lengthy injury and Marcus Berg is finally starting to show glimpses that he’s ready to become a big player at the club so we should see enough firepower in front of goal for PSV to score here. Most importantly of all is the news that Hungarian playmaker/winger Dzsudzsak is fit for this game. There was no doubt over that, to be honest – I’m just very relieved to see him playing as this side thrives when he plays via one medium or another due to his excellent ability both to score and create goals. Importantly, there’s plenty of experienced individuals in this PSV Eindhoven side and they know what to expect against Rangers so I think we’ll see a predictably attacking display from PSV as it’s the only approach that makes any sense against an almost certainly defensive Rangers side so we should see a lot of one-way traffic here.
The key to this bet succeeding is the timing of the first goal, in my view. I already discounted Rangers’ chances of scoring in a 5-4-1 greatly as it is but without Jelavic and Naismith available, I simply cannot see them scoring at all, save perhaps from a set piece. PSV will be doing the vast majority of the attacking and if they score early enough then I expect gaps to appear and PSV to comfortably break the handicap in that instance. What I don’t want is a late goal to set PSV going because they may sit on a 1-0 knowing that losing in Scotland is unlikely but either way, backing PSV and their potent attack to beat most sides with a -1.5 goal handicap at 9/5 has some value, in my view, hence my selection.
Team news – Ranger miss Broadfoot, Ness, Jelavic, McCulloch, Papac, and Naismith
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 8/5.