TFT Issue 433!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Germany vs Greece – Germany to lead at half-time at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the second European Championship quarter-final between Germany and Greece.
A lot of people are jumping on Germany here and I can understand that. After all, they’re a better side and they’re one of the favourites to win the tournament so it does make sense that they’re favourites.
However, are they really worth 1/3 here? Is any side worth such short odds in a quarter-final? It’s a big question to try and answer. Greece have established a reputation of being hard to beat, especially when their backs are against the wall. They love to be attacked because defending is what they do best. Counter-attacking football allows them to show their best qualities in attack because they’re not good enough to play the passing game and create chances from open play, especially without the suspended Karagounis. So, yeah – are Germany really worth such short odds here?
I do expect Germany to win this game, for what it’s worth. They’re far too efficient not to, really. If it goes to penalties for some reason then I’d stick my house on Germany because they’re awesome at penalties and Greece are one of the few nations that look worse than England at penalties right now! Germany should be able to find a way through before it gets to that stage, though. The reason behind Germany’s success in this tournament isn’t that they possess the best players in each position or that they’ve been very lucky etc. It’s because they’re the most tactically-astute side in the tournament and that coupled with their efficiency makes them a nightmare to encounter. They waited nullified Dutch against easily against the Netherlands and took their chances expertly, carving through the Dutch defence very easily indeed. They had to play a patient game against Portugal but it worked and they won that game too. They were up against a solid Denmark side and the Danes had to beat them so they adopted a more counter-attacking style whilst preventing the Danes from creating anything. Say what you will about the Germans but they’re smart tactically and they’re composed enough to take their chances when they get them.
Given that Greece are only a threat from set pieces, Germany really need to get that first goal as there’s no way back for Greece after that. You saw how much Portugal struggled with the Czechs last night – that’s what I expect the Greeks to try and do against Germany. Germany know that Greece are very slow starters in this tournament, though. They’ve been behind at half-time in two games so far and should have been behind in the other but Russia were rather complacent in every way and it cost them. Germany are smarter than that; I expect them to take the game to Greece in the first-half and make it count. Dubious goalkeeper Chalkias is a doubt here – it’d aid the bet if he played, really! – and left-back Holebas is absent but given that both of them have been responsible for most goals that Greece have conceded at this tournament, it’s possibly not a good thing for this bet that they miss out. Nonetheless, with no Karagounis, Greece have no way to keep hold of the ball unless Ninis produces one of his absolute best displays..
For this game, it should only be a matter of time before Germany win the game. I think they’ll try to do it early on so they can conserve their energy by sitting back, passing the ball around, and counter-attacking the Greeks when they attack later on. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 for Germany in what is essentially a difficult game for them. Under 2.5 goals appeals to me but I prefer taking Germany to be leading at half-time at 4/5 because that holds the key to them having an easy game here.
Verdict: Germany to lead at half-time at 4/5.
Team news
European Championship:
Germany – No absentees.
Greece – Holebas, Karagounis, and A.Papadopoulos are absent. Chalkias is a doubt.
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United – Hussein is absent. Manzur is a doubt.
Home United – Jiayi is absent.