TFT Issue 434!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
European Championships
England vs Italy is easily the closest of all of the quarter-finals. These two sides are really, really well-matched, in my view. They have the same strengths, weaknesses, characteristics, public pressure, cautious approach – everything. Hell, they even have their few world-class players in the same positions! I find it really hard to find any value in this game. I was tempted to take over 2 goals purely on the basis that odds of around 1/2 on this game being under 2.5 goals is a complete joke when you consider that there hasn’t been a 0-0 in the tournament thus far. I have to admit that I do think that this game will be 0-0 but still – those odds are ridiculous for unders. I can’t see beyond cards and a low-scoring game here, though. I would only advise you all to not bet on this game except perhaps in-play where we can see more of what’s actually happening.
Featured game
Vikingur Gotu vs HB Torshavn – lay Vikingur Gotu at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Meistaradeildin game between Vikingur Gotu and HB Torshavn.
The hosts are finally back in their own stadium as the artificial turf has been replaced but I still envision a tough game for them. The sole reason that Vikingur Gotu have done well this season is because they have the ability to keep sides out, which most Faroese sides simply don’t have. This is largely because Gregersen is at the heart of their defence and he’s way above Meistaradeildin level, in all honesty. Do you want to know an alarming statistic about Vikingur Gotu? I’m going to tell you one whether you want to know it or not! Vikingur Gotu have won just two of the eight Meistaradeildin games that they’ve conceded in this season. If that doesn’t give you a clear indication of how Vikingur Gotu play their football then I don’t know what will. The pace of Lasse Qvist on counter-attacks is a potent threat but with Vatnhamar out of form, his only support comes from Bartalsstvou and Bie, which isn’t much. Vatnhamar is good enough to win any game for Vikingur Gotu but he’s just not with it this season; I don’t know what’s wrong with him. If you breach Vikingur Gotu’s defence then you tend not to lose, though, which is the key point here.
Why is that key? Well, HB Torshavn are goalscorers, esentially. They’re pretty awful at defending and I guess we should have expected that when they signed samba full-back Alex pre-season, who is notorious for his attacking runs rather than his defensive capabilities. Well, he’s more notorious for his long-range strikes and tendencies to get sent off more than either of the above, if you want to be pedantic, but that’s another story. The point is that HB Torshavn rarely end a game without scoring, especially away from home. Mouritsen has given them an additional dimension in attack since returning to the Faroe Islands and with Samuelsen, Benjaminsen, and Hanssen all supporting him, not to mention veteran striker av Flotum, HB almost always score. HB have only failed to score twice in the Meistaradeildin this season, which have both been in the last couple of weeks, ironically. However, it’s well worth noting that both games were fierce derbies and HB are far from a composed side, hence their defensive ineptitude. They didn’t have the composure to take their chances in the games against EB/Streymur or B36 Torshavn. Indeed, a lack of composure at the back cost them in each game and they ended at least one of those games having had a man sent off, just to give you a bit of an insight into the way HB operate. Only EB/Streymur, NSI Runavik, and IF Fuglafjordur have scored more away goals than HB Torshavn have in the Meistaradeildin this season, however, which is important to note. Both Hallur Hanssen and Rogvi Holm return from suspension for this game to bolster the HB side, who didn’t miss them in their 6-0 drubbing of Suduroy. Hanssen has been one of their best players this season and the fact that they didn’t miss him tells you how bad Suduroy are, on an unrelated note. HB are a good goalscoring outfit, however, and I expect them to score goals here.
If HB do score goals here then it’s going to take a completely woeful defensive display from HB and an inspired attacking display from Vikingur for this tip to lose. Vikingur have had a lot of luck lately (e.g. the accidental goal against EB/Streymur that was actually a cross) but all luck runs out at some stage. Vikingur have only beaten HB twice at home in their last seven attempts and with goalscoring a talent of HB’s and a problem for Vikingur, I can’t help but feel that there’s value in laying the hosts today.
Verdict: Lay Vikingur Gotu at 4/5.
Additional games
Santos vs Coritiba – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
It’s almost certain that Santos will field a second string here following their Copa Libertadores antics earlier this week. However, people must be forgetting how good Santos’ second team actually is for the odds on over 2.5 goals to be so long. Santos’ players are taught to attack from start to finish; that’s the only way they know how to play, both at academy level and at first-team level. Santos know their defence is too weak to allow them to grind out wins ala Internacional or Fluminense, for example. That’s why Santos excel at attacking so much; it’s all they try to do. They’ll attack and score goals here, as they always do, especially because Coritiba are like a mini version of them. Coritiba also can’t defend, which helps. They’re a fearless side, though, Coritiba – they will attack and try to score goals. It’s an admirable approach but it’s also suicidal against good sides, just as we saw on their recent trip to face Flamengo. It’ll be interesting to see how they do when they field Keirrison again as he’s their best striker for my money. Still, this side plays as one and attacks as one so the side that they’ve got for today’s game should still be able to cause problems for Santos.
For me, over 2.5 goals is priced far too generously at 11/10 as I expect plenty of goals in this one, hence my tip.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
NSI Runavik vs B68 Toftir – home win at 4/5.
Ah, the bookies seem to have forgotten that NSI Runavik are a top five Meistaradeildin side. How silly of them! I always maintain that league tables can be misleading and that’s definitely the case here. NSI had a bad start to their campaign but they’re a very good side, especially at home. They’ve finally got some momentum together following a 1-1 draw at bitter rivals Vikingur Gotu and a 3-1 victory over TB Tvoroyri last time out so I’ll give them their due respect here. After all, Fredriksberg, Mortensen, and Magnus Olsen have done a terrific job of supporting Klamint Olsen up front and the youthful attackers are finally beginning to shine as one. We saw how good Klamint Olsen was last season but questions were always going to ask about how good he actually was following the departure of legendary goalscorer Christian Jacobsen. It’s taken NSI a while to cope without him, in all honesty, but they’re playing well now. Momentum is on their side and so is the quality so I fancy them to do well here.
I liked the look of B68 Toftir pre-season but now they just look a mess. There’s no confidence and no organisation in this team and it’s becoming a real problem. They crumbled in a 3-0 defeat a KI Klaksvik and crumbed again in a 2-0 loss against IF Fuglafjordur despite an arguably more impressive display than in their previous game. They’ve now not won a Meistaradeildin game since April and have failed to score in two consecutive games. They do possess a fine weapon here, though, as they signed Christian Jacobsen, who is easily the most proven goalscorer in the Faroe Islands. Ironically, he’ll be facing his beloved NSI Runavik today – I think it’ll be in the script that he scores; don’t you?
Still, NSI’s momentum should be enough to see them win this game. Their opponents are reliant on one player to make things happen whilst NSI are impressing as a unit. A 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline is likely here but either way, taking the home win at 4/5 looks appealing to me here.
Verdict: NSI Runavik to win at 4/5.
Team news
European Championships:
Italy – Chiellini is absent. Balotelli replaces Di Natale.
England – Young is a doubt.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo – Pusic, Leigh, Ogude, Oussou, and Kone are absent. Nordvik is a doubt.
Stabaek – Aase is a doubt.
Rosenborg BK – Iversen, Larsen, and Fredheim Holm are absent.
Stromsgodset – Aas and Diomande are absent.
Aalesund FK – Orry Larsen, Grytebust, Matland, and Leke James are absent.
Sogndal – Roed, Rudolfsen, and Naess are absent.