TFT Issue 437!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Spain vs Portugal – both sides to score at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the Iberian derby between Spain and Portugal in the European Championship Semi-Final.
Spain are favourites for this game and you can understand that. They’re the world champions and possess one of the best (if not the best) midfields at International level. However, I must confess that I find them to be a bit short for this difficult game against Portugal. I find some value in laying Spain at 10/11, to be honest, although that’s not my main bet here.
Look, Spain are absolutely terrific at passing the ball around in midfield. There isn’t a better side when it comes to keeping the ball and frustrating their opponents. However, I’ve been left cold by almost all of Spain’s displays at this tournament because they’re not creating enough chances to actually beat sides, in my view. Yes, they’ve done very well by having the ruthless efficiency required to win games. Spain are a clinical side, after all – they just don’t create many actual chances. Del Bosque’s curious tactical approach of fielding six central midfielders and no striker may have worked against lesser sides but let’s see how it does against the Portuguese. I’m certainly not saying that it won’t work because it’d be ridiculously stupid to write off the world champions. However, it’s not worked particularly well so far, in my view – Spain have had to rely on defensive mistakes too often to convince me that they’re capable of lifting yet another prestigious trophy. Spain usually get their token goal one way or another and that should really be the case here. Will they progress, though? I’m not so sure.
Portugal played well against Spain the last time the two sides met but were a bit unfortunate to lose. Having been completely surprised by what they’ve shown so far in this tournament, I fervently hope that they give the Spanish yet another tough game because Portugal have been excellent both tactically and in the final third. Happily, the Spanish almost always struggle against fellow hispanic Spanish and Portuguese friends because they tend to pass it round well against them. Spain will not be looking forward to this game whilst Portugal have nothing to lose as nothing was expected of them pre-tournament. Ronaldo has been in fine form in the past few games and he’ll be up against a lot of familiar faces today so I think Portugal have what it takes to cause an upset here. They need to remain smart tactically like they have been in the tournament thus far and they need their counter-attacks to work properly, which involves the Portuguese being clinical. If that happens, I think that there’s a very good chance that they’ll beat Spain here.
Portugal need to be excellent here; don’t get me wrong. If Spain score first then this bet (and all others barring taking Spain to win) look dubious because Spain are an impossible side to play against when they have the lead. You have to get the ball off them and that’s hard enough! Portugal hate attacking sides and breaking them down, anyway – they’re far better at counter-attacking. Spain’s defence is weak, though, and their strikers are usually not on the field so you can see why I favour the Portuguese here. As long as they play the right game then the dark horses Portugal could spring a surprise or two here. For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in taking both sides to score at 5/4, which looks far too long for my money.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/4.