TFT Issue 440!
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Featured game
Mjallby Solvesborg vs IFK Norrkoping – home win at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Mjallby Solvesborg and IFK Norrkoping.
Hosts Mjallby ended May on a bit of an unlucky run, going three games without a win. However, I’ve been a big advocate of theirs this season because they’re a very underrated side that have been playing good football. Central midfielder Kivuvu has been one of the players of the season thus far, in my view, and with ex-IFK Goteborg winger Nicklasson on the left and pacey Radetinac on the right, Mjallby have a dangerous midfield. If that isn’t enough then consider that they’ve not only good experienced Ekenberg in attack but also pacey Fejzullahu and promising Ericsson. Marcus Pode can be utilised on the flank or as a striker and he’s looked good too, to be honest. With all that in mind, it’s staggering to think that they’ll welcome back last season’s hero El-Kabir in the near future from Cagliari – be prepared for an extremely dangerous Mjallby attack when he comes back. Mjallby’s weak spot is the lack of pace in their ageing defence, unfortunately. However, few sides get Mjallby to attack them often enough in Solvesborg to exploit that, hence Mjallby’s strong defensive record. Mjallby have a lot of talented individuals and play well as a unit but rarely commit everyone forward because it results disastrously for them when they play that way. Let them play their way, however, and they’ll usually do a substantial amount of damage, which is precisely what I expect from them today.
Visitors IFK Norrkoping are a big-game team; they don’t tend to show up unless their opponent has a lot of supporters, basically. When that is the case, they’re not a side to go against as they’ll work like Trojans from the start until the end of the game. They’ll be clinical, threaten on counter-attacks, and their weak defence will look amazing. However, when it comes to facing sides of a similar quality level or of a lesser level, they tend to falter. At home, IFK Norrkoping are generally a handful anyway but away from home they’ve been especially bad in front of goal this season. Considering that they almost always fall behind to begin with, that’s not a good combination, hence their horrible away record. Indeed, their two away wins this season came at IFK Goteborg and Gefle, the latter of which are just a bloody awful side. Their win at IFK Goteborg came courtesy of one of the most laughable penalty decisions that you’ll ever see with the ball clearly striking the IFK Goteborg defender in the chest (his arm was nowhere near it!) and the referee gave a penalty, which IFK Norrkoping scored. Put a side against IFK Norrkoping that scores goals and make sure the referee isn’t a moron and you’ll ultimately see them lose the vast majority of their away games, usually pretty heavily too. The big news ahead of this game is that the star of the team – Ajdarevic – won’t be playing. Some sources say he’s injured and others say he’s on trial with Standard de Liege but either way, it’s bad, bad news for IFK Norrkoping. He’s their leader, their set piece specialist, their playmaker. Without him, there’s a very slender chance of them scoring and that’s me being rather generous with my opinion.
With all the above in mind, I find it very hard to envision anything but a home win materialising here. True, neither side has played a competitive game since May so there may be a couple of rusty displays here, which is all that prevented me from giving Mjallby a -1 Asian Handicap here, in all honesty. However, the hosts should have more than enough firepower to penetrate a pretty awful defence and with IFK Norrkoping able to offer little in response, we really should see a home win in this game.
Verdict: Mjallby Solvesborg to win at 5/6.
Additional games
Levadia Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
If Levadia Tallinn didn’t have a game with Lithuania’s Siauliai looming large in the UEFA Europa League then I’d give them a shot here, especially with Nomme Kalju off to Azerbaijan after this game to face Khazar Lenkoran. However, both sides have European committments so it’s difficult to endorse any kind of 1×2 betting as Levadia have more experience of being in this position than Nomme Kalju but Nomme Kalju have a better side nowadays.
I am all over under 2.5 goals at 3/4, though. The odds should be shorter than this, really – I daresay most people haven’t heard that big Neemelo is missing for Nomme Kalju. There are a lot of good attacking players for Nomme Kalju but with ten goals in fifteen games already this season, you know that he’ll be missed here. Quinteri has been impressive this season and youngster Melts looked good against Kuressaare last time out. The experience of Viikmae and the proven ability of Konsa, Wakui, and Jevdokimov at this level all make Nomme Kalju a dangerous attacking side. However, how many of them will actually feature? European football is the priority so it’s hard to see Prins fielding a full-strength side here, especially not with his experience in charge of the Tallinn clubs. Nomme Kalju are good enough to dominate this game but I don’t see them scoring enough goals to prevent this tip from winning, to be honest.
Levadia Tallinn aren’t the side that they used to be anyway, to be honest. Financial problems mean that mostly youngsters remain at the club. They’re still a top three side but just in case you were wondering why they’ve not scored more than a goal in a game against a big Meistriliiga side this season (and yes, I’m excluding Trans Narva from this list until they wake up) – that’s why. However, credit must go to Levadia Tallinn for the intelligence that they’ve demonstrated in this difficult situation. Instead of their flambuoyant attacking football that used to terrorise Estonian defences a few years ago, they’ve adopted a build-from-the-back approach so that they control possession and concede few goals. That’s been instrumental in their success so far this season because they’re not a good goalscoring side nowadays. The fact that Hunt is leading their attacking line speaks volumes, to be honest – he was the top goalscorer in the division below last season! Only Leitan remains from the old guard with controversial Nahk having retired and boy do they miss his free-kicks! It’s hard to see that spark in the Levadia side that used to be there, which is precisely why Kristal has made them into a tactical defensive unit. Levadia were pretty poor at unrecognisable Trans Narva in their last game and although any side could be forgiven for not playing well on that excuse for a pitch, it still wasn’t good enough and they didn’t deserve the three points that they got from it. Fortunately, Captain Morozov delivered two late goals to give Levadia an unlikely three points, capitalising on Trans Narva mistakes to do so and thus summing up Trans Narva’s season in that one game. Levadia will need to do better than that if they intend on winning this game, however.
Like I said at the start – I’d give Levadia a shot here if they weren’t playing in Europe next week as this game is a must-win for them. However, with both sides eyeing next week’s games and both sides keen not to lose this encounter, I have to look upon under 2.5 goals as a steal here at 3/4, particularly with the reversal of this fixture ending 0-0 at the start of the season.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Tammeka vs Trans Narva – under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
On the average Meistriliiga day, Tammeka would get beaten by Trans Narva and perhaps they will today – who knows? I certainly wouldn’t put any money on that outcome at laughably short odds of 4/7, however. Trans Narva’s form has picked up lately but they’re not playing well enough to earn those odds, even against an inferior Tammeka. Trans Narva are still the same old away side, too – they defend first and don’t do enough in the final third. Trans Narva host Inter Baku of Azerbaijan next week in the UEFA Europa League and that’ll be their priority for obvious reasons so I expect them to rest some players here. That said, you can expect Trans Narva to make a swift exit against their Azeri opponents because they usually fix themselves out of Europe with a substantial cash boost to boot – they get “investigated” for it every single year without fail. Nonetheless, they will prioritise that game and although Tammeka are shit, they’re at least respectable in their home games, usually keeping the scoreline low. Only Nomme Kalju have scored more than two goals here this season whilst Flora Tallinn won 0-2 and Levadia Tallinn won 0-1. Fellow Estonian/Russian club Sillamae Kalev were stuck with a 0-0 draw here and a similar result for Trans Narva would not surprise me. I expect few goals in this one and I think that odds of 7/5 are a must to take under 2.5 goals here, whether it comes in or not, especially given the lack of firepower in the Tammeka ranks.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
AC Oulu vs HiFK Helsinki – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
The only way I can surmise this one is by saying “Substantial quality gap”. Not only have shitty HiFK Helsinki had to deal with the nightmarish trip north to Oulu for this game but they’ve also got to deal with the fact that they’re not a good side. They can attack and score goals when it suits them but their defence is bloody awful. They concede goals against everyone and that will happen here against Stafsula and Zeze, I assure you! HiFK don’t have the defence to travel to Oulu and defend ala KooTeePee Kotka or Jippo Joensuu so I expect them to attack AC Oulu, which is suicidal. If HiFK do sit deep then AC Oulu will simply pick them apart. It seems realistic to expect AC Oulu to win this game with the above in mind! HiFK were woeful in their home game with SJK lately and without their passionate fans in the north of Finland you have to expect them to really struggle against the vastly superior AC Oulu. The hosts were fortunate to leave Joensuu with three points in their last game but hey, that’s what big sides do sometimes; they win without playing well. Only RoPS have scored more goals at home than AC Oulu have this season and predictably enough, the only sides to leave Oulu without being beaten this season were local rivals RoPS Rovaniemi, OPS Oulu, and a very fortunate Jippo Joensuu, who defended for their lives, which is what they’re good at. Everyone else has been humped by AC Oulu since they signed Zeze, including Viikingit Helsinki, defensive masters KooTeePee Kotka, and wealthy SJK with AC Oulu bagging at least three goals per game. With that in mind, you have to feel that AC Oulu beating the -1.5 handicap at evens is a realistic expectation today, especially given the visitors’ complete lack of tactics.
Verdict: AC Oulu to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs PK-35 Helsinki – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
You think RoPS Rovaniemi will win this one? Me too! There’s no way in hell that they’re worth taking at 6/10 though!
The lengthy trip to Rovaniemi is not an enviable one and especially not on the back of a 0-4 loss in the derby. However, that’s what PK-35 have to overcome here and we’ll see how well they’ve actually galvanised now that the chips are down. They’re still a good team but they’ll need to be very strong mentally to do well here. They managed to restrain RoPS Rovaniemi on their beloved artificial turf in Helsinki with a 0-0 draw earlier this season. However, I’m not sure they’ll be able to do that in the far north, especially not with RoPS looking more efficient than ever.
The key to this bet is efficiency, though. I expect RoPS to be the more dominant side and they’ll probably do what is required of them to win the game. However, they’re not a side that will push for more and more goals once they have the lead. They’re more than happy to sit back, keep the ball, and counter-attack where possible. Their defence has looked excellent this season so it’s working like a charm for them whilst PK-35 Helsinki…well, they still have a lot of work to do. Still, RoPS would take a draw from this if it was offered to them because they know they’ll beat more of their remaining opponents this season than any of their contemporaries will. The onus is on PK-35 to try and banish the memory of Viikingit Helsinki’s 0-4 victory by getting a positive result in Rovaniemi. Make no mistake here – PK-35 are good enough to do it, although whether they do or not is another matter entirely. Star striker Santala is still out for PK-35 so it looks unlikely to say the least. Both sides tend to keep it low-scoring against fellow Ykkonen heavyweights, however, and therefore I’d much rather get involved on an under 2.5 goals call at 4/5 rather than the criminally short odds available on RoPS winning what is essentially a difficult game for any Ykkonen side.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
IA Akranes vs FH Hafnarfjordur – over 3 goals at evens.
Christ, the odds on FH winning this one look short, don’t they? I like FH and the are the daddies of Icelandic football, much as though KR Rekjavik would like to believe otherwise. However, it’s that precise reasoning that makes me feel that FH are in for a rough ride here.
Ok, IA Akranes have just been promoted and their dazzling start to life in the Urvalsdeild has now been brought to a halt. It’s reasonable to expect a downward spiral at this point as they’re not an especially good side. However, you need to bear in mind just how much this game means to IA Akranes. IA Akranes used to be the big side in Iceland until unfortunate circumstances overtook them. FH Hafnarfjordur stole their mantle during that time and IA Akranes fans are not happy about that, I can assure you! They were massively motivated against KR Reykjavik and won that game 3-2 so God knows what they’ll manage to do here. FH are the better side but they’re far from infallible. They remind me of Rosenborg BK in Norway’s Eliteserien, to be honest – they tend to rely more on sides being afraid of them rather than actually being the better side. Subsequently, FH do crumble under attacking pressure, hence Stjarnan Gardabaer having so much joy against them in a recent encounter. FH have the firepower and experience to win difficult games like these so I certainly won’t be getting involved on the 1×2 market. However, taking over 3 goals at evens looks very intriguing as both sides are goalscoring sides and IA Akranes are particularly bad at defending.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at evens.
Atvidaberg vs Elfsborg Boras – away win at 4/5.
I almost talked myself into taking under 2.5 goals here because Elfsborg Boras are a much different side on the road when compared to the side that they are at home. They’re a lot more defensive-minded and possessive rather than attack-minded and flambuoyant. However, Elfsborg are missing a lot of defenders today and they may need to score two or three goals to secure three points, which is why I’ve not gone for under 2.5 goals.
However, I do think that we’re in for a tight game. That’s not because Atvidaberg are good enough to restrain Elfsborg Boras because they’re absolutely not! It’s because Elfsborg have a UEFA Europa League game looming large in the coming days at home against Maltese giants Floriana and that game matters more than this one, especially with Elfsborg making the Allsvenskan look like chicken feed with their impressive and impassive performances thus far.
Elfsborg love playing on artificial turf and that’s what Atvidabergs use at home so there’s no disadvantage for the visitors here. That’s more important than you might think! Elfsborg may rest a few players here, especially Svensson, who has been playing with the Swedish national team at the European Championships in Poland/Ukraine. However, they’ve got more than enough firepower and creativity to win this game against battling Atvidabergs. The hosts won’t lie down and take it; that’s not in their nature. However, their defence is shoddy and that will most likely cost them here. They’ve done surprisingly well in front of goal since promotion and I refuse to rule out the possibility of Atvidabergs scoring here with Elfsborg missing defenders and possibly resting players.
However, whilst odds are at 4/5 or longer, there’s definitely value to be found on taking Elfsborg to beat an inferior Atvidabergs side, in my view.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at 4/5.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Cruzeiro – Anselmo Ramon, Mateus, and Alex Silva are absent. Tinga returns.
Sao Paulo – Ceni, Wellington, Canete, and Fabricio are absent. Cicero is a big doubt. First game in charge for Emerson Leao.
Nautico – Araujo and Auremir are absent.
Fluminense – Fred, Rafael Sobis, and Diguinho are absent. Leandro Euzebio, Rafael Moura, and Valencia return. Thiago Neves also returns but won’t play from the start.
Vasco da Gama – Rodolfo is absent. Alecsandro and Eder Luis are doubts. Romulo has been sold. Juninho returns.
Ponte Preta – Rene, Tony, Caio, and Somalia return.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn – No absentees.
Sillamae Kalev – No news.
Tammeka – No absentees.
Trans Narva – No absentees.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Nomme Kalju – Neemelo is absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Nurmela returns.
HiFK Helsinki – Kibona is absent. Britschgi is a doubt. Tanner returns.
Hameenlinna – Suhonen and Makela are absent. Lehtimaki is a doubt. Paulo Perreira is on trial and may debutise today.
KooTeePee Kotka – Jammeh and Lomidze are absent.
Jippo Joensuu – L.Ikonen and Korpela are absent. Itala and Suoraniemi return. Ekroos has returned to the team following his retirement last season.
OPS Oulu – Hyde and Nganbe-Nganbe return.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Vilmunen and Emenike are doubts.
PK-35 Helsinki – F.Seferi, Ikegwuonu, and Santala are absent.
SJK – Jaaskelainen, Viljanen, Tiitus Lehtinen, Penninkangas, and Palosaari are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
GIF Sundsvall – No news.
Kalmar FF – No news.
Syrianska Sodertalje – No news.
Atvidabergs – No news.
Elfsborg Boras – S.Larsson, Augustsson, M.Andersson, Mobaeck, and Hiljemark are absent.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.
IFK Norrkoping – Ajdarevic and Telo are absent.