TFT Issue 442!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Veikkausliiga Thoughts
Had a few requests from people for my thoughts on the Finnish games today via email so I thought I’d share them as I rarely don’t tip any Veikkausliiga games.
First thing to bear in mind – third game in seven days for most (if not all) sides. Only HJK has any kind of ability to deal with that and they’re struggling themselves. KuPS, MyPa etc. have European games later this week. They’re not likely to rotate players so they’re doing to produce some awful displays in the near future.
As far as today’s games go, I don’t like any of them, as I’ve said. JJK are missing their best player – Gruborovics – for their trip to bogey side VPS and VPS miss Strandvall, who is instrumental to their attack. Could be a 1-0, could be 2-1, could be 1-3 if JJK want it to be. Impossible to call. HJK should flatten most sides at home but they’re not convincing right now; big test for their unfamiliar squad. MyPa are playing better football than them right now but HJK have a bigger and much better squad. Could be 2-0, could be 2-2 – just depends who shows up. KuPS are better than Jaro but show it once every couple of months. Jaro are the form side but are screwed up front if Jonke’s doubt turns into a “missing”. Could be 1-0, 2-0, 2-2, 0-2 – anything is possible. Haka are hard to call right now – generally unders side with tight displays. Most goals they’ve been scoring of late are due to defensive errors. TPS have improved a bit lately but are still suspect in games against lesser sides as motivation drops and effectiveness drops as a result. Likely to be 0-0 or 1-1 but could be a win for either side depending on who puts the most in. Lahti are shit and have just lost key player Taulo, who has returned to Italy. They’re missing lots of players today and they’re an awful side. However, Inter Turku are playing really badly and ineffectually at the moment. They’ve lost their confidence and miss some big players. Quality-wise, Inter should cruise this with a heavy scoreline. Performance-wise, we’re likely to see a stupid draw that is forged on mistakes.
Hope that was useful for you, guys. Wouldn’t touch any of the above unless in-play although I have to admit that laying KuPS at evens appeals to me if Jonke starts.
Featurerd game
Malmo FF vs AIK Solna – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
Today’s featured game is the big Allsvenskan game between Malmo and AIK Solna.
According to the Allsvenskan table, there’s only one point separating Malmo and AIK. This is another classic example of why you shouldn’t rely solely on league tables to decide on what to bet on. AIK are third in the table because they defend leads better than any other side in Sweden. Malmo are second because they’re arguably the most dangerous home side in Sweden whilst also possessing some of the most dangerous attacking weapons in the country. With that in mind, there’s quite a big difference between these two sides that isn’t reflected in the league table but will hopefully show by the end of this game. Mind you, the other Swedish games a few days ago were all backward so do approach this one with caution!
It’s been often remarked that Malmo at home is like Barcelona at home because they have all of the ball and they make a lot of chances. I can’t disagree with those sentiments, either – Malmo are an extremely good home side. Hopefully the Summer break hasn’t made them too rusty because they’re going to need to be at their most creative to dismantle this boring but extremely well-organised AIK side. Still, with the likes of Durmaz (who hasn’t left yet, thankfully!), Ranegie, Larsson, Hamad, and Wilton in their ranks, Malmo have more than enough going for them to get one over on old foes AIK. Malmo are more than good enough to attack AIK in a variety of ways and they’re so good at it that their opponents rarely manage to score against their makeshift defence. Malmo have only conceded one goal at home this season and have beaten the -1 Asian Handicap in three out of their five home wins. As long as they play their usual home game, they’ll win this game without too much difficulty.
AIK – well, I respect them for who and what they are. Alm’s side are very hard to beat at all times and that’s what has propelled them into such a prominent Allsvenskan placing. The introduction of Celso Borges has improved their creativity in midfield and alongside Danielsson they make a formidable duo. However, they’re a bit short of a good striker and they’re a bit short of the unpredictability factor too. Quaison carries the hopes of the AIK faithful for his exciting displays this season but AIK aren’t much to look at attack-wise. Defensively, they’re experienced and strong positionally so again, Malmo will have to work hard to break through them. However, Malmo are one of the few sides that are good enough to do it and I think that they will do it in style today.
It’s a bit of a bold bet, this one, so do approach it with caution. If it was mid-season then I’d be all over it like a rash but having seen Elfsborg ripped apart by Atvidaberg at weekend, I’m inclined to advise you to keep stakes low for this one. Nonetheless, with Malmo’s usual displays at home and their superiority over AIK, I cannot help but feel that taking them to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is a bit of a steal at 7/5.
Verdict: Malmo FF to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
Additional games
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Fram Reykjavik – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
Stjarnan are not a side that tends to bother keeping clean sheets so refrain from taking the juicier odds on the European Handicap here. Nonetheless, I like the prospect of Stjarnan winning this game with relative ease because they’re goalscorers. They’ve been playing very well of late, beating Grotta in the Icelandic Cup before beating in-form Valur Reykjavik 3-2. Stjarnan then surprisingly followed that up with an impressive 2-2 draw at heavyweights FH Hafnarfjordur with a display that should have seen them win the game. They attacked superior FH with belief and pace, which FH simply had no response to. FH would have lost that game had it not been for a set piece goal toward the end of the encounter. Stjarnan are going from strength to strength and they’re a nightmare to prevent from scoring. This side is very much a unit as there are no decorated stars, perhaps with the exception of on-loan Danish playmaker Laudrup, and that in itself makes it even harder to face Stjarnan. Again, this side cannot defend but they can certainly attack and score goals so I’ll give them a chance here.
I especially like this bet because Fram Rekyjavik don’t score goals at the moment. Looking at their forwards, there’s no real surprise that things aren’t working out for them, particularly in their 4-5-1. They’ve got some good midfielders in Hewson and Halldorsson but Fram really need better strikers or their impotent attack will continue. Consider that they’ve played in eight games this season and they’ve failed to score in five of them. It’s just not good enough, is it? It’s not as though Fram don’t have a good side because they do; they just really lack in the goalscoring department and if they’re not careful then that may cost them their place in the Urvasldeild for next season.
Fram’s defensive record makes this bet look dubious but I’m not concerned as I know that there isn’t a side in Iceland that plays attacking football like Stjarnan do. For me, there’s value in taking Stjarnan -1 Asian Handicap at long odds of 7/5, even with the possibility that Stjarnan will give their usual goals away at the back.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga
FC Lahti – Veltheim, Hukka, Kari, Kemppinen, Sinisalo are absent. Taulo has left. Lansitalo returns.
Inter Turku – Gnabouyou, Kauko, Bahne, Diallo, Lehto, and Parviainen are absent. Nikkari returns.
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema and Pesonen are absent.
TPS Turku – Rannikko is absent.
HJK Helsinki – Hakanpaa and Zeneli are absent. Sadik is a doubt.
MyPa Anjalankoski – No news.
KuPS Kuopio – Taipale, Holopainen, Paananen, and Hynynen are absent.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Aho and Banner are absent. Jonke is a doubt.
VPS Vaasa – Strandvall, Engstrom, Jibrin, and Bjork are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Kuhmonen, Gruborovics, and Jarvinen are absent.