TFT Issue 545!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AC Horsens vs FC Copenhagen – away win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Danish Superligaen game between AC Horsens and FC Copenhagen.
Despite Horsens putting in a good stint last season, there is definitely something missing this season. Seven draws in thirteen games is too much for a side that is associated with attacking and scoring goals, you know? There’s a reason that their record has changed dramatically and it’s because they’re not as good in front of goal as they used to due to sales last season. They’re still a pain in the backside to play against because they’re tenacious and they’re pretty damn good on the ball. However, the fact that they’re yet to win a home game in the Superligaen this season shows that goalscoring is their real issue and it’s no surprise as Toft looks lost without his former strike partner and there’s not enough players in their squad to seize hold of the game and drag Horsens along with them, in my view. Horsens may be hard to beat but that’s not because they’re good in the final third; let’s put it like that!
FC Copenhagen are good when it suits them, basically. They’d adopted that age-old Scandinavian mentality of a big side that is expected to win games and thus may appear complacent in their games and even lazy to a certain degree but they’ll generally grind out the results. Copenhagen have had a decent rest following their 0-0 draw in Germany last week in the UEFA Europa League so confidence should be pretty high here, especially as the game before that saw Copenhagen win the Zealand derby against Brondby. Copenhagen are the best side in Denmark, in a nutshell, and finesse of emerging striker Cornelius has really lifted Jacobs’ side this season, a side that was expected to struggle. He’s done so well that even a fairly out-of-form Santin hasn’t been missed and Abdellaoue can barely get in the team! As far as attacking goes, Copenhagen simply can’t be rivalled in Denmark and I thoroughly expect that to show today. They’re occasioally a bit haphazard in defence but they’re good enough to control this game and to frustrate their hosts. They have to be alert and to take their chances to win it but they’ve got a strong record at Horsens and it really should continue today, especially given the growing quality gap.
For me, 4/5 on Copenhagen winning this game is worth a bet today.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 4/5.
Additional game
Elfsborg Boras vs Gefle – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
This is the riskier bet of the two that interest me today but I still like it a lot.
This game means a lot to both clubs so I already expect it to be very close. Let’s not get caught up on quality difference here, fellas – there’s not enough quality difference in Sweden for anyone to merit the odds that Elfsborg are at right not!
You have to understand that Elfsborg Boras tend to draw a lot of their advantage in their home games because of their artificial turf. Not only that, but this is particularly bad artificial turf so the majority of Allsvenskan sides struggle in Boras. Don’t get me wrong; Elfsborg have some cracking players and their consistency is very commendable. The likes of Elm and Nilsson up front are a constant threat and having eight midfielders that would walk into any other team in the league is a massive advantage. I’d even go so far as to say that Elfsborg have the most solid defence in the country. My sole concern for them is that they do not score enough goals and that can cost them. Still, you’ve got to fancy them to win the game, haven’t you? AIK drew at home against Syrianska and Hacken lost a heartbreaking home game against Kalmar so a win today certainly gives Elfsborg a good chance of winning this league, especially with Malmo still yet to take on AIK in Stockholm.
However, Gefle will have other ideas as they seek to cement their place in the Allsvenskan. They’ve responded well to the threat of relegation and despite having absolutely zero in the way of attacking and scoring goals, they’ve still won a number of games lately, which has seen them rise away from the drop zone. They’ll be the best buddies of IFK Norrkoping, who thumped GIF Sundsvall 0-4 yesterday ’cause the chances of GIF Sundsvall taking at least four points from their last two games (Atvidaberg away and Hacken at home!) are remote. On a personal level, I think that’s a shame as GIF Sundsvall have played some lovely football this season. Still, this is a results game and that harsh truth may yet burn GIF Sundsvall, who are likely to be sucked into the Allsvenskan/Superettan Play-off. Returning to Gefle, though, this side has plenty of momentum and they’re very well-organised. Unlike most Swedish sides, Gefle have no interest in scoring goals as they have no ability to do so. Instead, they’re far happier to sit in their own half, force sides to attack them, and foul them when they get near to the box. Much like their hosts, Gefle use artificial turf in their home games so Elfsborg’s strong home advantage shouldn’t be anywhere near as evident today. For my money, Gefle will go to Boras to take the draw today and you know what? It’s not so ludicrous to think that they’ll get it.
Seriously! Elfsborg don’t like playing sides that don’t attack them. They’re perhaps the most well-equipped side out of the Allsvenskan heavyweights when it comes to varying their attacks and they’ve got enough in midfield to eventually nick a goal or two but I think it’ll take time. In all honesty, I think Elfsborg have really struggled in the last few weeks as the heat has been turned up; I think they’ve bottled it far more than their results suggest. This game could and should be very tight, in my view. Elfsborg have only beaten Gefle three times in their last seven attempts at home and although I really do think that they’ll manage it today, I don’t think it’ll be as convincing as they’d like it to be unless they get an early goal, in which case Gefle will collapse (due to not having a “Plan B”) and Elfsborg’s nerves will ease. Other than that, taking under 2.5 goals looks a steal at 11/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Independiente – Gabbarini and Assman are absent. Santana and Leguizamon are doubts.
Tigre – Pio is absent.
Colon de Santa Fe – Fabianesi and Pellegrino are absent.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – No news.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice – Repka, Riegel, and Linhart are absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Hanousek is absent. Prochazka is a doubt.
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – No absentees.
FC Copenhagen – Wiland is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – No absentees.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Falczuk returns.
Beitar Jerusalem – Dassa is absent.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Vermouth is absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen – Askar, Kalvernes, and Korcsmar are absent. Barmen is a doubt.
Lillestrom – Ringstad and Stoor are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Ruch Chorzow – Piech and Sultes are absent.
Gornik Zabrze – No absentees.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – No news.
Academica de Coimbra – Real, Magique, Ferreira, Cabral, Haliche, and N’Gal are absent. Peiser returns.
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Ibeh and Ungurusan are absent.
Viitorul Constanta – Dica is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Valladolid – Manucho is absent.
Real Sociedad – Zurutuza, Bravo, Elustondo, and Cadamuro are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras – Claesson returns.
Gefle – No news.
Turkish Super Lig:
Fenerbahce – Topuz, Yobo, and Meireles are absent. Korkmaz and Topal are doubts.
Antalyaspor – Inceman is absent.