TFT Issue 445!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Stabaek – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between JJK Jyvaskyla and Stabaek.
I never thought I’d see the day when a Finnish side was favourite to beat a Norwegian side. That in itself is a mistake, I feel. I love Finnish football but it’s a couple of classes behind Norwegian football and that’s simply how it goes.
I’m a big advocate of JJK but they’ve been pretty poor this season, especially at home. They’ve got one of the worst defences in Europe right now – no exaggeration – and conceding two goals against fellow Veikkausliiga sides is bad enough but against sides in Europe? It’s just fatal. JJK have their talisman back in Gruborovics, which is a big plus for them. However, with other midfielders lacking in form and JJK being unable to keep a clean sheet against anyone, I can’t see why they’re such favourites here.
Stabaek lost almost all of their good players pre-season due to financial problems. However, the kids and Divisjon 1 players that they brought in to help out have finally gelled and Stabaek are no longer whipping boys as a result. They’ll still probably get relegated from the Eliteserien due to their catastrophic start to the season but they’re playing much better football now and are harder to take on. Stabaek still bring a better side into this game than their hosts and have zero pressure due to their bad situation. They can play with freedom and I think they’ve got the pace to really hurt JJK here.
Over 2.5 goals interests me but I genuinely think that Stabaek will win this one without much fuss. Stabaek are a better side than JJK, even with their new-look squad, so the away win with draw no bet appeals to me an awful lot at 6/5.
Verdict: Stabaek to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Additional games
Trans Narva vs Inter Baku – away win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
I don’t often take handicaps of this nature away from home and given that Inter Baku haven’t played a competitive game for a while, do approach this one with caution.
However, I really fancy them to tear Trans Narva a new one today. Either by foul means or by fair means, Trans Narva lose all of their European games. They’re the most corrupt side in Estonia by some distance anyway and were accused of throwing their games against MyPa in the not-too-distant past. A similar thing today would not surprise me one bit as they’re all about the money. Aside from that, they’ve got their weakest squad for a long, long time and it’s going to take more than a solid display against Tammeka to convince me that they’re capable of doing anything here. Azeri football has been developing solidly for a few years now following Brazilian influence in the country and I think that Inter Baku are more than capable of demonstrating that here as long as they take their chances. I wish it was Qarabagh playing Estonia, to be honest – they’d rip Trans Narva a new one – but I still like 6/5 on Inter Baku beating the handicap against an inferior Trans Narva side.
Verdict: Inter Baku to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Differdange 03 vs NSI Runavik – home win at 3/4.
Luxembourgian football has progressed more than most in the past few years and we saw a good example of that last night when F91 Dudelange tore Tre Penne a new one. Yeah, San Marinese sides are still the worst in Europe but F91 Dudelange were rampant. Differdange are very experienced in Europe and I recall them playing well against Levadia Tallinn last year too. They’re a good side and they’re more than capable of beating NSI Runavik today as Faroese sides never travel well. Not only do they have to adapt to natural turf but they also travel to Luxembourg with one of their weakest sides in years. They’ve lost every European away game that they’ve ever played in and with Klamint Olsen really missing his strike partnership with Jacobsen up front, it’s very hard for me to envision NSI Runavik doing something here, especially with such a young set of players in their team. For me, the home win is still generously priced at 3/4.
Verdict: Differdange 03 to win at 3/4.
EB/Streymur vs Gandzasar – lay Gandzasar at 10/11.
Gandzasar have had to travel the vast majority of the length of Europe to play this game. They’ve appeared in European football for just two games, losing both times. They’re going to play in cold conditions on artificial turf. Despite that, they’re somehow 4/5 to win this game. I’m a bit mystified by that, to be honest!
EB/Streymur are the most experienced side in the Faroe Islands when playing European football. They’re also the most adept side at doing so, often causing problems for opponents at home. Last year it was a talented Qarabagh side that failed to win in Torshavn against EB/Streymur. These guys do not give in and they’re well-organised to boot. The only home game they’ve lost since July 2010 was their recent 0-1 smash-and-grab win by Vikingur Gotu recently! This side knows what they’re doing and it’s going to take an outstanding performance from their Armenian opponents on this horrible plastic pitch to win with hardly any experience and in conditions that they’re not remotely used to. For me, there’s lots of value in laying Gandzasar today as long as EB/Streymur don’t “do a Vikingur Gotu”!
Verdict: Lay Gandzasar at 10/11.
Crusaders vs Rosenborg BK – under 3 goals at evens.
I like this one a lot more than I should, to be honest. Rosenborg are a big name in both Norwegian and even European football but that’s predominantly all that they are nowadays. There are some experienced heads in their ranks but very little spark. Rosenborg tend to do well in Norway when sides show them too much respect. Well, I doubt very much that Crusaders will do that here. I’ve said before that Northern Irish and Irish sides are amongst the most tenacious and fearless in European football. They’ll battle from start to finish and sides like Rosenborg really hate that. Rosenborg may well win this game against their inferior hosts as they’ve got the experience to do so but I think they’ll find this a much harder game than the odds suggest. They took on Linfield back in 2010 when they had a marginally better side than they do now and still drew the game 0-0. Now, Linfield are better than Crusaders but it’s the same approach from both sides and Rosenborg really hate it. I really fancy under 3 goals in this game at 6/5 and possibly a shock draw if Rosenborg are as lazy as normal and if Chibuike can’t be arsed to carry them.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at evens.
Cliftonville vs Kalmar FF – home win with +1.5 handicap at 10/11.
This one follows a very similar vein to the tip above it. Kalmar are horribly overrated this season and only demonstrate goalscoring potential once in every ten games. They’re nervous and error-prone at the back and never travel well in Sweden, let alone outside of it. Kalmar may beat their inferior hosts but the work ethic and organisation of the hosts should make this a very tight game indeed, which is why I favour giving the hosts a +1.5 handicap today.
Verdict: Cliftonville to win with +1.5 handicap at 10/11.
KR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
The only word I can use to sum up the recent KR displays is “effective”. That’s not meant in a dismissive way, either – they’ve been bloody good at breaking sides down and that’s sometimes been their issue in the past. They’ve faced a lot of different styles already in the Urvalsdeild this season and have overcome all of them at home barring the samba Stjarnan Gardabaer. To be fair, though, no side is capable of scoring as many goals as they do on the road. KR are a very potent side this season and it’s no surprise that they’ve covered the -1.5 handicap for three consecutive home games now, despite taking on bitter rivals FH Hafnarfjordur during that run. It took a while to break through UMF Grindavik in their last home game but they did in and then ripped them apart on counter-attacks. KR look a much smarter side this season and as respectable as Fylkir’s statistics are on the road this season, I think that they’re out of their depth here. They need to score goals to prevent KR from dominating them here and I don’t see where those goals will come from. KR can and will find ways through the Fylkir backline, just like FH did lately, and they should record a comfortable win as a result unless Fylkir randomly turn it on. For me, there’s value in taking in-form KR to beat the -1.5 handicap against their inferior local rivals as they’ve got much more firepower than Fylkir.
Verdict: KR Reykjavik to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Selfoss vs Stjarnan Gardabaer – away win at 6/5.
I prefer taking Stjarnan to win at home, to be honest, but they’re good enough and playing well enough to beat Selfoss here. Selfoss are plucky and hard-working but really struggle to create and score chances. They’re especially motivated for the bigger sides, which Stjarnan aren’t, so I think they’re in for a tough game here. Every time Selfoss have encountered a better side or a better tactical side than themselves this season, they’ve lost. They’ve lost at home against FH, Breidablik, and Fylkir so how they hope to stop arguably one of the most potent sides in Iceland I just don’t know. Selfoss will capitalise if Stjarnan are lazy here but Stjarnan are looking anything but lazy right now. They went to Hafnarfjordur and outplayed giants FH before stuffing four goals past Fram in their last game. They’re on fire right now and they’re so dangerous to take on when they’re like this. They’ll concede goals against anyone but I don’t see Selfoss having the firepower to match Stjarnan here so taking the away win at 6/5 looks a good bet today.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at 6/5.
GAIS Goteborg vs Orebro – home win at 4/5.
GAIS finally have a full compliment of players to choose from and although they’re a bit rusty, they should have enough to win this one today. I don’t usually take GAIS to win games that they should win easily because they have a nasty habit of being very complacent. However, they’ve got Wanderson in their ranks, who is still the best player in Sweden, and that makes a big difference. He can win any game on his own and maybe he will today – who knows? GAIS are the better side here and host Orebro on natural turf, which Orebro hate. Orebro aren’t as bad as the league table suggests but they’re not scoring goals and that’s a huge problem because their defence is almost as bad as Djurgarden’s, which is a pretty damning insult. Orebro can be a good side and maybe new Manager Ljung will be the one to bring that out in them. However, they’re going to have to be at their best to get a result against a superior GAIS Goteborg side here and I fancy the hosts to have enough about them to win this game without too much ceremony. I don’t expect a polished display; something like a scrappy 1-0 or 2-0 looks probable. However, as long as odds remain at 4/5 or longer, I’m ok with taking the home win here.
Verdict: GAIS Goteborg to win at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Jagodina – Sold Simic, Marjanovic, and Krstic pre-season.
Osijek – Sold Maglica pre-season. Pusic, Parosevic, Leskovic, and Sorsa are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Gruborovics returns.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen and Taipale are absent.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Selin, Williams, Opoku, and Sesay are absent.
MTK Budapest – Janos Lazok may debutise.
Elfsborg Boras – Starting line-up confirmed as Stuhr-Ellegaard, Larsson, Jonsson, Jorgensen, Klarstrom, Claesson, Svensson, Rohden, Hult, Nilsson, and Jawo.
Kalmar FF – No news.
Lech Poznan – Sold Rudnevs, Wojtkowiak, Stilic, Injac, Bruma, Golla, Bieszczad pre-sesaon. Wilk likely to leave.
Zhetsyu – Kostic, Belic, and Dobrasinovic may feature.
Nomme Kalju – Neemelo is absent.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Twente Enschede – Landzaat is absent. Ola John was sold.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg – No absentees.
Orebro – New boss Ljung’s first game in charge.