TFT Issue 447!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Veikkausliiga/Allsvenskan Thoughts
Firstly – is this section a good idea or not? I figure it’d be handy to explain why I’m not betting on some of my beloved Scandinavian games to help you in-play. Thoughts are welcome below!
So – no Veikkausliiga games interest me today, for starters. JJK are likely to rest players for their game against Lahti as they’ve got a trip to Norway looming in a few days. JJK are better than Lahti and goalscoring is their forté but their form has been hit-and-miss to say the least and they’re not playing well en mass. If they rest players here then there’s a decent chance that they’ll lose because they cannot defend. Lahti are awful but they’re scoring goals for fun right now, although I must confess to being bewildered as to how such a poor side is capable of scoring so many goals. Lahti could win this game but then again, JJK do need Veikkausliiga points and they are a lot better than Lahti. Can’t say that I like anything about this game other than in-play betting on goals, depending on which line-ups are named. For the game between MyPa and KuPS, I’d sooner avoid it entirely. MyPa have over-achieved all season long and KuPS have under-achieved all season long. Look at the table; you’d never guess that KuPS were much better than MyPa, would you? MyPa were in Wales a few days ago facing Cefn Druids whilst KuPS hosted Llanelli from the same country. I don’t see either side going gung-ho here as KuPS have to go to Wales in a few days and MyPa’s thin squad may be tired from their mid-week game. MyPa are playing better football and more consistently than KuPS this season so they may be worth a flutter but I can’t endorse betting on anything on this game. 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2 – nothing would surprise me.
As far as the Allsvenskan games go, some bets interested me that the odds are just too poor to be interested in. For example – taking under 2.5 goals in Gefle vs GAIS Goteborg. Gefle are a bloody awful side when it comes to scoring goals. Give them a lead and they’re a horrible side to try and break down to rescue the game but they’re just terrible at creating and score goals. GAIS can be brilliant but can also be awful. They were pretty good in their last game but being reduced to ten men against Orebro ultimately cost them. GAIS’ display tends to hinge on how good Wanderson is. This could be any of the 1×2 markets but under 2.5 goals looks likely although I’d never take such a bet with odds of what – 8/11? – on the outcome. I don’t like IFK Norrkoping vs Kalmar one little bit because Kalmar aren’t a big enough side for IFK to be motivated against them and yet Kalmar are hit-and-miss as they’re not good goalscorers and not good travellers. Kalmar may rest players for their return leg game against Cliftonville in a few days time but IFK aren’t the best at motivating themselves for games like these and they won’t have the luxury of Kalmar playing a high line against them, which is precisely how Mjallby conceded twice against them in their last game. No bet! For the remaining Allsvenskan game, I’m a bit on the fence for AIK vs Hacken. AIK are a bad goalscoring side but they’re terrific at holding a lead if they get it. They’ve got two or three players at most with the unpredictability to make things happen and allow AIK to score goals but little else. Hacken can be the best goalscoring side in the country when it suits them but they look a bit jaded right now. GIF Sundsvall were smart tactically and managed to win in Goteborg against Hacken, which is a game Hacken frankly shouldn’t be losing. Their confidence is up-and-down and they have a few match-winners. They can’t defend for shit but you get the impression that if they score then they won’t lose as AIK don’t score goals. I contemplated taking both sides to score but questioned why I’d do it as a 0-0 or 1-0 against a dejected Hacken side is quite possible. Yeah – this is a no bet too.
Featured game
Elfsborg Boras vs Mjallby Solvesborg – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between league leaders Elfsborg Boras and Mjallby Solvesborg.
Interestingly enough, Elfsborg Boras’ last Allsvenskan game saw them bizarrely lose 5-1 at inferior Atvidaberg. Elfsborg are several classes above Atvidaberg so the result was a surprise to everyone. However, a horrendous goalkeeping show from Stuhr-Ellegaard cost them dearly, especially from corners. Elfsborg weren’t themselves in that game anyway, to be honest, and yet still managed to trouble Atvidaberg at the other end of the park without trying much. Still, Elfsborg bounced back with a mid-week demolition of Maltese heavyweights Floriana, running out 8-0 winners which basically means that they can rest players for the return leg in Malta next week. Their pride may have taken a slight knock but their quality is still present and they should be able to carry their momentum from the victory mid-week into this game. Striker Jawo misses this game but David Elm is reportedly back. Hiljemark is a doubt but Ishizaki returns so as ever, the relentless Elfsborg machine of quality and depth rolls onward. Elfsborg have more than enough in their ranks to win this game comfortably on their artificial turf and to be honest, they really should do so today.
I’m a big advocate of Mjallby but they have numerous issues confronting them today. Firstly, central midfielder Kivuvu is suspended, which is a big blow. The Angolan dictates the play for Mjallby and they’ll no doubt be forced into playing long ball for this game without him. Radetinac, Nicklasson, Nilsson – they’re good enough to cause problems for most Allsvenskan sides but Elfsborg have the best midfield in the country; Mjallby won’t win that battle today. However, they do have the strikers to play a long ball, to be honest – Fejzullahu and Ericsson are both either quick and/or good with their off-the-ball movement and they can cause problems here as a result. It’s no coincidence that some of Mjallby’s best displays this season have been away from home. They were excellent in their 2-2 draw at GAIS, their 1-1 draw at Helsingborg, and their 1-2 win at Kalmar. They gave Hacken and AIK tough times, too, only really letting themselves down against Syrianska. As a counter-attacking side, Mjallby are quite the underrated force; it’s attacking from open play that bothers them. Helpfully, Elfsborg don’t mind not having the ball in their games, either – they’re happy to simply take the chances that come their way because they know that nobody does it better than they do in the Allsvenskan so there’s plenty of scope for Mjallby to at least score here. However, their biggest Achilles Heel is their slow defence. They got caught out twice against IFK Norrkoping due to long balls and pacey frontmen and Mjallby conceded two goals as a result. Elfsborg have a very quick and skilful attack and thus I think the Mjallby backline is in for a very long day indeed.
Elfsborg could run riot here and break the over 2.5 goals mark by themselves. I think it’s more likely that Mjallby will contribute to the scoreline if they play properly but either way, taking over 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Fluminense vs Flamengo – home win at evens.
This may be a fierce derby but I’m really feeling the home win here. Fluminense are not only better organised than Flamengo nowadays but possess better players and as a result they possess better prospects. Abel Braga’s boys are only missing Rafael Moura, Rafael Sobis, and Diguinho, none of which have even featured for them this season. Happily, Fluminense welcome back talismanic striker Fred and arguably their best midfielder in Thiago Neves, who joins Deco in unleashing the mayhem from Fluminense’s midfield. There are lots of quality players in this side and they attack very well. A 0-2 win at Nautico last time out might not look like much but Nautico is a very tough away game this season; you won’t find many sides winning there. Fluminense have been superb tactically and extremely clinical this season so as long as they hold their nerve in the derby then they really should beat their inferior neighbours.
Flamengo have signed Paraguayan midfielder Victor Caceres from Libertad Asuncion but he won’t be able to play in this game. Forward Deivid has to sit this one out and you all already know that Ronaldinho left Flamengo and signed for Atletico Mineiro so Flamengo’s attack begins to look a little weak, doesn’t it? On his day, Vagner Love is an outstanding striker and he’ll definitely be a threat here. However, you look at Flamengo’s midfield and wonder where his support will come from. Botinelli is decent but there’s nothing special in this Flamengo side; that spark that Ronaldinho provided is no longer there. Flamengo counter-attack well but they’re weak at the back and tend to buckle under pressure, which they’ll experience a lot of here. I therefore find it hard to see Flamengo getting a result off their bitter rivals today.
For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in the home win at evens.
Verdict: Fluminense to win at evens.
Santos vs Gremio – home win at 5/6.
Santos do have a few names out for this game with Ganso being the most notable of them. Strikers Kardec, Borges etc. have left the club. Maranhao is apparently the next on big-spending Atletico Mineiro’s wishlist. Indeed, Santos are reportedly lining up an exchange deal with today’s opponents Gremio which would see them swap Elano for Miralles!
Still, Santos are very much a dangerous attacking side on their own turf and I expect them to show that here, irrespective of who players. The outstanding Neymar will play his final game prior to the Olympics today and Santos do have other good attacking options in their side. Santos play an attacking brand of football at every level so they create and score goals for fun, irrespective of who is playing for them. Defensively, they’re not all there but that shouldn’t matter in a game like this as Gremio offer very little in attack at the best of times.
Gremio have just sold goalkeeper Victor, which is their first problem to overcome here. They struggled against Atletico Mineiro lately without a confident defence, which naturally stemmed from knowing their number one, and I expect more of the same today. Not just because of Victor, mind you – Gremio have big defensive issues, especially at left-back. Fabio Aurelio, Edilson, Rondinelly, Anderson Pico, Julio Cesar, Naldo, Para, and Saimon are all missing for Gremio today, which basically decimates their defence to a degree that they just can’t handle. Given that Gremio’s only tactical approach is to build from the back due to their bland attack, I find the prospect of them leaving Santos with anything but a defeat to be a shade far-fetched. Football is football; anything can happen. Moreno and Kleber are decent strikers, after all. However, Gremio lack the style nor the creativity to cause problems on a regular basis here, even against a weak Santos defence. Gremio also tend to lose every time they fall behind due to the above reasons so I fancy them to struggle here.
Santos have problems here but nowhere near as many as Gremio. For me, there’s value on the home win at 5/6 as Neymar should be able to dominate as he wishes in this game.
Verdict: Santos to win at 5/6.
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
There’s only one side in Norway right now playing “total football” and that’s Stromsgodset. They’re an absolute pleasure to watch because they attack from start to finish and score goals at will. They can mix it up between the pace of Kamara and the aerial presence of Kovacs whilst also having plenty of support from behind them both. Although a relatively young side en mass, Stromsgodset are packed full of exciting players, as per usual. They’re usually only strong at home but this season they’ve been fearless and potent on the road. This side can and will score goals when they wish to and they’re going to attack from the start here because that’s simply what they do. They’re perhaps a shade naive and they’re weak at the back but this side is the most potent side in Norway right now and I’m very confident that they’ll do the business here, especially with the attacking options available to them. It’s important to note how strong a unit these players are too. They lose key players every season and still continue to play brilliant football so this Stromsgodset is actually stronger than their lofty league placing indicates, in my view. They shouldn’t have many problems against Stabaek, either. Stabaek are improving rapidly but they’re still a predominantly weak side and they also had a mid-week trip to Finland to deal with. They’re not good enough to stop Stromsgodset from tearing them a new one here, even if they do score themselves. Their “new” stadium has natural turf, which benefits them much more than Stromsgodset, but it’s one of the few things that actually does benefit them because on a player vs player basis, Stabaek will get pulverised here. Stromsgodset need to hold their nerve and take their chances here but they tend to do that anyway. I can see Stromsgodset ripping Stabaek here, to be honest. I’m expecting a 1-4 or 1-5 if the visitors really turn it on. I’ll stick with the cautious side of things and back them to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5, though – it adds insurance that you need more often than not when betting on a side with a shit defence and it also stands a good chance of winning because of the goals that Stromsgodset are more than capable of scoring whilst also representing good value.
Verdict: Stromsgodset to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Rosenborg BK vs Molde FK – lay Rosenborg BK at 4/5.
Rosenborg are always going to be a threat at Lerkendal in Trondheim because…well, because they’re Rosenborg! I can’t put it any more simply than that, really. They’ve got some very good players and they’re generally reliable enough to score goals. However, what Rosenborg tend to bank on is sides being afraid of them. Rosenborg actually really struggle when dealing with pressure and pace, two things that Molde will definitely apply today. Stromsgodset did that here recently and claimed a 3-3 draw as a result so I don’t see why Molde can’t do the same thing here.
Rosenborg have some experienced players but they do lack pace in some key areas, not to mention creativity. You’re looking at a side that has failed to score in three out of its last five Eliteserien games, which just isn’t good enough. It doesn’t take much to score against Stromsgodset’s defence and although they bagged four in Stavanger, you have to bear in mind that most were at the end of the game when Viking heads had dropped. Rosenborg simply aren’t as good as they used to be, both in displays and in their finishing.
I’d like to say that Rosenborg will be tired here because of their trip to Northern Ireland mid-week but to be honest, they controlled the game without over-exerting themselves and won the game comfortably as a result so I doubt that their preparations will hampered ahead of this big game. However, Molde have had a nice long rest ahead of this game and they have a mental strength to them that Rosenborg seem to lack. When these two sides met in the NM Cupen a couple of weeks ago, Molde didn’t show any signs whatsoever of buckling despite falling behind twice in the game. They continued to believe in themselves and force themselves upon Rosenborg and you saw the outcome – Molde beat them 4-3. I wouldn’t say that Molde are streets ahead of Rosenborg but I do believe that they have a better mental approach and a better Manager, which is pretty crucial in the bigger games. Molde’s defensive strength is somewhere between zero and minus one but their ability to outscore their opponents is matched only by Stromsgodset in the Eliteserien this season. There hasn’t been a defence that can contain Berget, Gatt, Angan, Chima, Hoseth, Hestad, and Eikrem this season, just to name a few. Molde have more varied attacking options than Rosenborg and subsequently score a lot of goals. Solskjaer’s side is very good at outscoring their opponents and although they don’t travel too well, I do think that they’ll give Rosenborg a very good game today.
Rosenborg tend to have the voodoo sign over Molde in Eliteserien games so approach this one with a bit of caution. It is a big game, after all. However, Molde look in much better shape than Rosenborg do right now, in my view, and I find value in laying Rosenborg at 4/5 as a result.
Verdict: Lay Rosenborg BK at 4/5.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Figueirense – Buzz around camp due to signing of Abreu although he can’t play today. Ygor has left. Pablo, Botti, Almir, Tiago Volpi, Leo, Joao Paulo, Jackson, Toro, Franco Niell, and Heber are absent.
Vasco da Gama – Rodolfo, Renato Silva, Eder Luis, and Fellipe Bastos are absent. Felipe and Carlos Alberto are doubts. Likely to be Diego Sousa’s last game for the club.
Fluminense – Rafael Sobis, Rafael Moura, and Diguinho are absent. Fred and Thiago Neves return.
Flamengo – Deivid, Leo Moura, Romulo, Maldonado, and Thiago Madeiros are absent. Caceres can’t debutise in the derby.
Santos – Maranhao likely to leave after this game. Borges, Renteria, and Kardec have all left. Ganso, Bernardo, David Braz, Fucile, Galhardo, and Pedro Castro are absent. Neymar and Rafael play their final game prior to leaving for the Olympics.
Gremio – Edilson, Rondinelly, Anderson Pico, Fabio Aurelio, Julio Cesar, Naldo, Pera, and Saimon are absent.
Sao Paulo – New signing Rafael Toloi can’t play in this game. Piris, Paulo Miranda, and Fernandinho are likely to leave although should be available for this game. Luis Fabiano, Rodolfo, Rodrigo Ceni, Wellington, Fabricio, and Canete are absent.
Coritiba – Emerson, Jonas should feature. Cleiton, Eltinho, Jackson, Keirrison, and Marcel are absent. Coritiba will field a “B” team here.
Atletico Mineiro – Victor may debutise. Marcos Rocha should return. Guilherme, Neto Berola, and Triguinho are absent.
Portuguesa – Gustavo and Rogerio are absent.
Ponte Preta – Cicinho, Joao Carlos, Roger, Wescley, and Nadson are absent. Caio, Ricardinho, and Geronimo return.
Palmeiras – Luan, Barcos, and Assuncao are absent. Palmeiras will field a “B” team today.
Sport Recife – Edcarlos, Renato, Willian Rocha, and Naldinho are absent. Magno Alves and Cicinho may debutise.
Corinthians – Leandro Castan has left and Willian is likely to leave. Corinthians will field a “B” team and Manager Tite won’t be present.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
MyPa Anjalankoski – Aho is absent.
KuPS Kuopio – No news.
JJK Jyvaskyla – No news.
FC Lahti – Veltheim, Kemppinen, and Kari are absent. Sinisalo and Hukka return.