TFT Issue 448!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Veikkausliiga/Allsvenskan Thoughts
We’re heading to Finland first of all for TPS Turku vs FC Honka Espoo. TPS started the season well and Honka started it badly. If this game was being played in April, I’d be all over the home win. However, TPS have been very hit-and-miss lately, often disappointing with their only real good game coming in their 0-0 draw at HJK Helsinki. Honka, on the other hand, have played very well. They’re confident and they’re scoring goals. They were desperately unlucky not to beat IFK Mariehamn lately although they do have to blame themselves for the horrific own goal that they conceded in the 98th(!) minute. Honka can’t keep clean sheets; we all know that. However, I rate their chances of winning this game more than TPS Turku’s, based on recent displays. To be honest, it just looks a complete nightmare to bet on either way. TPS would love to win this 1-0 in their usual efficient manner but Honka have a better chance of making it happen and if they do it then it’ll most likely involve and over 2.5 goals game. No bet.
Looking at Sweden, Malmo are just too short here. I do like the prospect of them beating Orebro because they were simply awesome as they tore AIK apart. Admittedly, they do tend to show their “Barcelona” style far more often at home than they do on the road but they still possess a devastating attack and the news that Elfsborg slipped up yesterday must really encourage them here. However, they’re hit-and-miss on the road, often conceding stupid goals. They’re playing on artificial turf, which they don’t usually play well on. Orebro have a win under their belts and they can be a pain to play against if they take their chances. Orebro have a new Manager to inspire them, which worked last match, albeit somewhat fortuitously. Malmo are the better side here but there’s no way on earth that they’re worth 8/11 on the away win here. I’d consider them at 5/6 but at such short odds, there’s just nothing worth betting on here. In-play, you could try taking Malmo to score over 1.5 goals if it hits 5/6 but it’s worth watching them to see how they’re playing because they often don’t play as well on the road as they do at home.
Featured game
IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the big derby in the Allsvenskan between IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg.
IFK Goteborg enter this game on the back of a disappointing 3-2 defeat in Stockholm against Djurgarden. Djurgarden capitalised on IFK Goteborg’s mistakes at the back very well, hence the three goals that they scored, but IFK Goteborg were probably a bit too lazy when it came to attacking in the first place. In the second-half, IFK Goteborg applied a lot of pressure and created a lot of chances but it proved to be too little, too late.
Still, the quality of IFK Goteborg is there for all to see, really. They’ve got a whole host of attacking options and you won’t find many games that they don’t score in as a result. Their defence alone indicates that there is still work to do, however. They’re a good attacking side and they do cause problems, especially in games where motivation is high, such as the Goteborg-Helsingborg derby.
You know, this is such a classic example of why league tables are bollocks without proper observation. IFK Goteborg are currently one place above the drop zone and yet on paper, they’re a top three side. This side has scored in all of their home games this season and they’ve scored two goals per game for four of their home games so you can see how good they are, even if you don’t watch them. They just struggle massively when it comes to defending and it’s going to cost them everything this season. Christ, this is a big game for IFK Goteborg because Gefle are just three points behind them and we’re half-way through the Swedish season! I seriously doubt IFK Goteborg would get relegated but why not? They’re not doing enough to win games, basically. They played well but drew 2-2 with Malmo FF earlier this season but it’s not points on the board, is it? IFK do relish their big games, though, and I expect them to at least turn up today.
Visitors Helsingborg have been pretty dour this season. They’ve resembled a superior AIK Solna, to be honest, playing for the narrow wins in unconvincing fashion. However, a bit of a backroom personnel change over the break and Helsingborg suddenly look a lot fresher. They came back and immediately smashed Gefle 4-1, which made sense as they did look good in their friendlies too. Helsingborg aren’t the side that they used to be but there’s a lot of experience in their side and they are capable of producing something in games like these.
Will they, though? I don’t know for sure. I need to wait and see how Helsingborg play in the next week or two as to decide whether their current form is temporary or not. Helsingborg were poor earlier this season because their displays were poor. If their displays improve them I’ll give them some faith because they’ve got the players to cause problems. Finnbogason is a gifted striker; he just needs the appropriate service in order to score more goals. Defensively, Helsingborg still have question marks, largely due to injuries and a lack of concentration. Much like their bitter rivals, they still have a lot to prove. However, they will be confident here and they’d love to upset IFK Goteborg so I won’t rule them out from doing so.
I think we’re in for a good game of football here, to be honest. Both sides have something to prove and both are good enough in front of goal to damage their opponents so my call is over 2.5 goals at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
TPS Turku – Lehtovaara is a doubt.
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi is a doubt.