TFT Issue 452!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Allsvenskan/Ykkonen Thoughts
I’ve not touched two of the Allsvenskan games and all of the Ykkonen games today and I’ll explain why for all six games.
I was tempted to take IFK Goteborg to beat the -1.5 handicap against Gefle, to be honest. Gefle are nothing more than a horrible defensive side with no firepower at all. This side only threatens from set pieces, if at all, and often lose on the road because of it. They don’t like playing on natural turf and have been hammered by big sides on the road this season, barring their 0-0 draw with Malmo on the opening day of the season. However, I have zero faith in IFK Goteborg’s defence. They should absolutely keep a clean sheet here but I can count the number of times that that has actually happened this season. The late equaliser from Helsingborg in their last game and the defeat at DIF may be demoralising this frankly talented but fragile squad. I’d take the -1 Asian Handicap in-play at 4/5 but I’m not sure whether that’d be me being biased or not. IFK are a lot better than Gefle but they’re not consistent with showing it so it’s up to you as to whether you want to bet on this game or not. It’s definitely one to actually watch if you are.
Helsingborg have impressed me since coming back from the break. A change in backroom personnel has clearly done them the power of good and they’ve started to regain the atypical Helsingborg arrogant swagger. They’re getting results without playing particularly well and that’s something else that I expect from them today. Despite a recent break, Syrianska look tired and short on ideas. With only Touma regularly causing problems for opponents, you have to feel that Helsingborg will edge this one. However, will they produce one of their usual efficient home displays and win 1-0? Or will Syrianska capitulate and get hammered here as they realistically should? Syrianska miss two defenders here through suspension – Jawo and Skenderovic – which makes it easier for Helsingborg. I’d almost prefer for it to be harder for Helsingborg, though – they tend to put in a better display when it’s harder. Helsingborg should break the -1.5 handicap and the odds are generous but the odds are generous for a reason; Helsingborg are not the most enthusiastic nor flambuoyant of sides. You can view them as a superior/glorified AIK Solna, if that makes it easier to understand where they’re at. Would you take AIK to beat the handicap here? Yes, that’s right – you’d have to watch it to see how they’re playing. Helsingborg at least have a natural finisher in Finnbogason that AIK lack although he’s absent today so Helsingborg are more like AIK than ever!
As far as the Ykkonen goes, there are simply far too many question marks for me to get involved on any of the games today. OPS are a much better side than Hameenlinna but only one of those two sides have played well lately and that’s Hameenlinna, who have put some very spirited displays in whilst OPS have looked dejected and short of ideas. I wouldn’t touch that one with a barge pole right now! RoPS haven’t been at their best yet but you do have them winning at shitty HiFK today. HiFK have the best supporters in the division, though – it can make unexpected results happen sometimes. RoPS should be composed enough to cruise to a win here but the odds are a complete joke for it happening. I’d take the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6 but not shorter. AC Oulu should beat Viikingit but Viikingit are playing well and AC Oulu are sort of floundering a little despite grinding out some wins. The odds on the home win are too short and as much as I fancy over 2.5 goals, the odds on that are way too short as well, especially considering the long journey that greeted Viikingit for this game. That’s one to in-play, I feel – over 1.5 goals in-play if it’s 0-0 at half-time, for example. For the last game, I’m not even contemplating taking anything. SJK are a better side than KooTeePee but the visitors defend very well and have produced some unexpected results of late. SJK finally got caught out in their last match by Hameenlinna, drawing 1-1 at home as the fact that they’re all actually human finally hit them. How hard will that hit them? How much will their absentees hurt them? SJK should win this game 8 times out of 10 but a dogged 0-0 wouldn’t surprise me. No bet!
Featured game
CFR Cluj vs Dinamo Bucharest – CFR Cluj to win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Romanian Supercupa game between CFR Cluj and Dinamo Bucharest.
Cluj have remained largely entact over the Summer with their only real losses coming in midfield. Outcast Peralta left and went to ply his trade in Chile. He was a talented playmaker but fell out with the club some time ago so it’s understandable that he hadn’t been producing his best displays. The bigger losses in midfield were Brazilian midfielder Renan and Italian midfielder De Zerbi. Andone will have to cope with those losses but I’m confident that he will; he’s a good manager. Cluj looked good in friendlies and they’ve made some very good signings pre-season, expanding their game with the wide men Deac and Diogo Valente joining them. Kivuvu is supposed to return from loan at Mjallby and may force his way into the Cluj midfield as he’s looked very good in the Allsvenskan this season. Cluj have lots of capable strikers, not least the influential “right place, right time” Kapetanos. Cluj look a much more complete unit this time around and really should retain their Liga 1 title with competition sparse to say the least.
Dinamo Bucharest may have only lost one player of any notable ability pre-season but it’s one too many for a side that is rapidly running out of good players. This time it was defender Moti who moved on, who was a constant fixture in the Dinamo defence last season. Scarlatache also moved on but he wasn’t particularly good anyway. It’s worth noting, though, as both of them were regulars at the back. When you consider that Dinamo are already a joke at the back, it really isn’t worth contemplating just how bad they’ll be this time around. Dinamo have lost a lot of friendlies lately and it’s no surprise, really – there’s nobody making anything happen other than Alexe. He can’t carry them forever; he’ll probably join many of his compatriots in Russia if carries Dinamo for another season. Who else is there, really? Danciulescu is a very experienced striker with a good eye for goal but he’s in the twilight of his career and he has very little support. Marius Niculae has left and signed for Sivasspor in Turkey and despite not being a great forward, he was a solid target man that was definitely handy as a “Plan B” for Dinamo when “Plan A” inevitably failed. Munteanu is a capable player but his legs are getting a bit weary nowadays so again, where does the Dinamo threat come from? It doesn’t come from anywhere, to be blunt, so it’s hard to see them doing anything this season.
With all of the above taken into account, we really should see Cluj win this one. Andone knows his old Dinamo Bucharest team inside out and coaches Cluj very well. Cluj’s only real flaw is not scoring as many as they should but they still should have more than enough to capitalise on what is effectively a distinctly average Dinamo Bucharest side this time around so my call is for Cluj to win at evens.
Verdict: CFR Cluj to win at evens.
Additional games
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Rubin Kazan’ – Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.
There have been very few changes for Zenit pre-season. Arshavin has gone back to Arsenal after his loan deal ended and Zenit have signed Georgian youngster Kenia to bolster their midfield. That’s basically it, to be honest. Spalletti is clearly happy with his current crop and why not? They play excellent football and have the ability to beat any side in Russia.
Rubin are able to stop most sides in Russia playing football against them with easily the best defence in the country but they tend to lack the firepower to recover in games like this one if they fall behind. Don’t get me wrong – Gokdeniz and Natcho are very able players, as is Ryzantsev – but they lack the strikers to trouble their opponents. They’ve lost the tenacity of Noboa in midfield as he joined Dinamo Moscow and that’s a blow that Rubin are going to have to somehow deal with. They’re dangerous in midfield if allowed to play but their ability to score goals is minimal to say the least so I expect them to struggle against a creative and efficient Zenit side today.
I don’t expect a classic game but Zenit should edge this one by a goal or two. For me, there’s value on taking Zenit to win at evens.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.
VPS Vaasa vs TPS Turku – TPS Turku to keep a clean sheet at 2/1.
I may not be a huge fan of TPS Turku at this moment in time but it’s hard to look upon this one as anything but bargain odds.
As I said in my preview of IFK Mariehamn vs VPS Vaasa – VPS lack firepower. They have one genuinely good striker in Morrissey who has lit up the Veikkausliiga this season with infectiously good displays. He’s a real team player, Morrissey – he scores goals, makes runs, closes down defenders; the complete package. VPS have needed someone like him for years and it shows; just look how well they’re doing. VPS have always had the capability to defend leads but to take the lead is another matter entirely. VPS missed Morrissey for the trip to Aland to take on IFK and what happened? Yep – despite VPS playing quite well, they still didn’t score. Information has been disclosed to me that Morrissey will not be playing for VPS again for a minimum of four weeks due to illness so how will VPS score today? TPS defender Tanska came from VPS so he knows his old side really well and will help the TPS defence massively. VPS are never easy to beat in Vaasa but I can’t see them scoring against TPS, basically.
TPS are solid enough at the back to keep VPS out if they want to. They are a good value bet to win with draw no bet at 5/6, in my view, but I’d rather take VPS not to score at 2/1 on the principle that TPS are unreliable with their goalscoring trends on the road.
One final point for you guys to consider before deciding on what to take. VPS have hosted three good Veikkausliiga sides this season, losing 0-2 against Inter Turku whilst beating FC Honka Espoo 2-0 and HJK Helsinki 1-0. Guess who scored all of their goals against good sides in Vaasa this season? Yes, that’s right – Morrissey. Take him out of the equation and VPS haven’t scored against any of the big sides at home this season. Whether it comes in or not, taking TPS to keep a clean sheet at 2/1 today is a pure bargain, in my eyes – it’s going to take some horrendous defending or an inspired VPS display for anything else to occur here.
Verdict: TPS Turku to keep a clean sheet at 2/1.
Mjallby Solvesborg vs GIF Sundsvall – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Mjallby are a side that I like in the Allsvenskan but so are GIF Sundsvall so there’s no room for bias here. Indeed, if you fused these two sides then I reckon you’d have a bloody good Allsvenskan outfit with Mjallby’s strikers and GIF’s midfield!
However, this isn’t fantasy land so let’s look at the way things actually are. Mjallby have very good strikers that will take chances if given them. However, I don’t know for sure if Kivuvu has gone back to Romania yet or not. If he has, that damages their playmaking and control of the game, which makes this tip harder to succeed. Without him, they won’t push on as much and won’t leave gaps at the back where GIF Sundsvall could exploit their lack of pace. Mjallby are more than good enough to score here, especially if GIF Sundsvall’s awful attempts at defending against Atvidaberg are anything to go by. However, GIF Sundsvall do play better football than Mjallby. GIF Sundsvall’s football is massively underrated because they usually have problems putting the ball in the net. Against a slow Mjallby defence it shouldn’t be a problem for them, though.
If Kivuvu has gone back to Romania then there’s definitely value in taking GIF Sundsvall with draw no bet. However, I like the idea of this game going over 2.5 goals at generous odds of evens with the hosts struggling to defend and the visitors often failing to keep a compact shape at the back on the road but almost always threatening on counter-attacks.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Atvidaberg vs AIK Solna – both sides to score at 4/5.
This should be a fascinating game because of the complete contradicting styles on show. Atvidaberg are gutsy but stupid with their all-out-attack tactics. It scored them a surprise draw with GIF Sundsvall last time out because they capitalised on some bad defending. Atvidaberg can score goals, if nothing else, with their forward line’s movement frequently upsetting Allsvenskan sides. However, their defence is shoddy at best and they’ll almost always concede, which is handy because AIK tend to struggle to attack and score goals. That said, AIK looked really good against Hacken in their last game and should have scored more than they did. Their attack is finally causing problems and although Hacken’s defence is far from stable, I was still very impressed with the way that AIK dismantled it. AIK are good at the back so Atvidaberg will have a tough job ahead of them today to score. Then again, Atvidaberg have scored in all but one of their Allsvenskan home games this season so why not the overrated AIK too?
Again, this should be a fascinating game and I’ve no idea who will triumph, if indeed either side does. However, taking both sides to score at 4/5 interests me a lot for this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news
Please post your own team news for today and tomorrow, guys, as I’m going to be offline for most of the weekend – cheers!
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
VPS Vaasa – Morrissey, Strandvall, Bjork, and Luokkala are absent. Jibrin returns.
TPS Turku – No absentees.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Merilainen is absent. Juha Majava is a doubt. Makela and Juuso Majava return.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
HiFK Helsinki – Kibona, Mikko Halme, and Tanner are absent. Tamminen returns.
RoPS Rovaniemi – No absentees.
Hameenlinna – Makela and Vanderlei are absent. Mononon is a doubt.
OPS Oulu – Vandell is absent. Ramirez returns.
SJK – Jaaskelainen, Viljanen, Tiitus Lehtinen, Penninkangas, Toni Lehtinen, and Da Silva are absent. Palosaari is a doubt. Lomski, Dorman, and Rauhala return.
KooTeePee Kotka – Wheeler is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Atvidaberg – No news.
AIK Solna – Atakora, Lundberg, and Majstorovic are absent.
Helsingborg – Finnbogason and Bergholtz are absent. Krafth and Sundin are doubts.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Jawo and Skendereovic are absent. Elia is a doubt. Michel returns.
IFK Goteborg – Dyrestam, Lund, S.Larsson, H.Jonsson, and Waehler are absent.
Gefle – No news.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Nicklasson is a doubt.
GIF Sundsvall – No news.