TFT Issue 456!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Buducnost Podgorica vs Slask Wroclaw – lay Slask Wroclaw at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Montenegro between Buducnost Podgorica and Polish outfit Slask Wroclaw.
The hosts have more experience than their opponents in European football as they regularly qualify for it. They’ve also got some very experienced players in general, not least big Radonjic up front, formerly of Partizan Belgrade. He and Adrovic terrified Montenegrin defences last season with Boskovic joining in at will. Buducnost are the best side in Montenegro because they tend to score the most goals. Defensively, they’re not the tightest of sides and that will probably hurt them at this level. However, they’re a good goalscoring side and they’ll fancy their chances today, particularly with the knowledge that Polish players hate playing in such heat.
Slask Wroclaw are almost unrecognisable from last season. They’ve got a good boss in Lenczyk, who may be outspoken but sets his sides up very well tactically. However, their quality level has dropped drastically because they simply don’t have the funds to keep hold of players. Out of their usual starting eleven last season, Slask have lost five players. Their defence has had to cope with the losses of Fojut, Pietrasiak, and Celeban whilst their midfield has been deprived of Dudek, Cwielong, Madej, and Sztylka, just to name a few. They’re fortunate to have kept hold of Elsner and forwards Voskamp and Diaz but perhaps not so much for this game as Voskamp is suspended and both he and Diaz have come under fire from Lenczyk himself lately, stating that the players “apparently forgot what they’re getting paid for”, to which Voskamp responded that Lenczyk’s training methods are “weird”. To say that there is a conflict there is an understatement although to be fair, I don’t think it’d be a Lenczyk camp if there wasn’t someone needling someone else. They’re bitter and edgy but he gets the best out of them by making it this way. That said, this is a very new-look Slask and given that their massive strength last season was their organisation, I find it hard to see them winning this game in Montenegro tonight.
Don’t get me wrong – Polish football is way ahead of Montenegrin football at the present time. I just don’t see why Slask are such heavy favourites in what should be a very difficult game for them with the above taken into consideration. For me, there’s value in laying Slask at 10/11 tonight.
Verdict: Lay Slask Wroclaw at 10/11.
Additional games
Santos vs Botafogo – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
A winner or not, odds of 11/10 on two of the most attacking sides in Brazil producing a game that goes over 2.5 goals looks bloody good to me!
Santos still miss Neymar and Ganso, who are in the United Kingdom at the Olympics. Regular defender Juan is also out today although rumour has it that Edu Dracena and Leo may return today. I watched Santos’ recent game in southern Brazil as they took on a good Internacional side and I have to say that Santos didn’t do much wrong at all. Their absentees affected them as they wasted a couple of good opportunities either through poor finishing or a lack of decision-making in the final third. Nonetheless, they threatened well and although Internacional were poor, Santos impressed me. Felipe Anderson looks a really talented player at the moment too. It’s not so much his pace that’s his main weapon, although he is bloody quick, but it’s his acceleration that does the damage. Pace can be countered with pace but acceleration is a whole different ballpark and the amount of times he surged through a reliable and solid Internacional defence in Porto-Alegrense was impressed. Unlike Botafogo, Internacional can defend, so you have to wonder just what this kid can do against Santos’ Rio de Janeiro opponents today. Arouca looked good against Internacional too and as long as new signing Miralles beds in quickly then Santos should be able to play their usual game here and score goals whilst almost certainly conceding them.
From a 1×2 perspective, the value is on Botafogo here. They miss Elkeson and Seedorf here but everyone else is fit, barring long-term absentee Mattos. Rafael Marques may debutise but it’s not a great concern to me as Botafogo are a very good unit. They can’t defend but they attack very convincingly and managed to frighten bitter rivals Fluminense significantly in their last game, although they had to settle for a 1-1 draw. All of Botafogo’s away games in Serie A this season have cruised over 2.5 goals and with Fellype Gabriel, Andrezinho, Cidinho, Jadson, and Elkeson supporting Herrera, it’s not great surprise that they’re doing so well. Elkeson will obviously be missed here but there are lots of good attacking players in this Botafogo side and I believe that they’ll cause Santos problems today.
Neither side keeps clean sheets often and both believe that they can win every game. Neymar, Ganso, and Elkeson may be absent from this spectacle but the talent that remains on the field has convinced me that over 2.5 goals is well worth a flutter at 11/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Atletico Mineiro vs Internacional – home win at 5/6.
I’m not going crazy on the Atletico Mineiro wagon just yet, although I must confess to being impressed by their performances. They show no fear and they also demonstrate terrific belief in their ability to win games, which is handy as it’s sometimes hard to hold your nerve when your team concedes in every bloody game. Why not believe in themselves, though? They’ve got arguably the best player in Brazil in their team in the form of the timeless Ronaldinho, who is still an outstanding player. If anyone tells you otherwise then you really should cut your losses and just punch them in the face. There are some experienced heads in this side and plenty of firepower to boot, although I do feel that they’ll miss former CSKA Moscow hitman Jo, who is suspended. Still, Danilinho and Ronaldinho are good enough to run this show and the latter will especially motivated to do it against the bitter rivals of his beloved Gremio.
I do like Internacional but they were the worst that they’ve been all season long in the game against Santos a few days ago. They linked up badly in the final third and found it hard to string passes together. A weak and makeshift Santos defence was made to look the best in the country by some ineffectual attacking from Internacional. Their squad is deep but obviously not deep enough, which is a pity. They do welcome back D’Alessandro but it’s small comfort in a time when Internacional need their best players available. Forlan still can’t play and with both Oscar and Leandro Damiao at the Olympics, not to mention Nei suspended in defence, it’s hard to see Internacional doing anything here. The clever Datolo is still absent, incidentally, and that further decreases Internacional’s options, so yeah – this should be tough for them.
For me, there’s a bit of value left in taking Atletico to win this one at 5/6.. They’ve still got a long way to go but they’ve picked the perfect time to take on Internacional.
Verdict: Atletico Mineiro to win at 5/6.
Flamengo vs Corinthians – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
I love these odds. I don’t care if it doesn’t come in; it’s just wrong! Well, ok, I do care if it doesn’t come in but still – Corinthians are a lot better than Flamengo so the odds do amuse me a bit.
Fair enough – Corinthians have lost a number of players lately and they have struggled for form. I think we can all appreciate and understand that. They’ve made a few new signings to bolster their squad, although none of them can play in this game. They’re going to need a big game from Romarinho in the absence of Liedson but this Corinthians side is more than capable of dominating the game and making things happen as they wish. They’re still one of the top sides in Brazil, irrespective of their form and league placing, and I think it’s only a matter of time before it shows. Why not today?
Flamengo aren’t a good side; it’s as simple as that. God alone knows how they actually won against Bahia in their last Serie A game with the Vitoria outfit outplaying them. Bahia outfought them, out-thought them, and should have outscored them. I can blame Bahia for not taking their chances well enough but on the officials can be blamed for allowing that penalty to be given as it was complete nonsense. That’s Flamengo for you, though – they’re lucky or they lose. Botinelli returns today to ease their lack of creativity and star striker Vagner Love is back so I will give credit where it’s due; if anything is to go in favour of Flamengo then it’ll come from one of those two, if not both. However, this side is so bereft of spirit, creativity, tenacity, and consistency that I cannot help but oppose them. They’re dubious at the back and they never convince me in the final third and thus I think that they’re the ideal opponents for a labouring Corinthians side right now, in some ways at least.
For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in taking Corinthians to win this one with draw no bet. Flamengo need luck to do well in games like these and Corinthians would have to be bad to lose it, in my eyes.
Verdict: Corinthians to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Ludogorets – Petr has left. Cvorovic, Moti, Guela, Kaisara may debutise. Paulinho is absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Fojut, Celeban, Pietrasiak, Dudek, Sztylka, Wolczek, Madej, Cwielong, and Gancarczyk all departed the club pre-season.
Brazilian Serie A:
Gremio – Werley, Edilson, Fabio Aurelio, and Julio Cesar are absent. Anderson Pico returns.
Sport Recife – Hugo, Cicinho, Naldinho, Renato Silva, and Willian Rocha are absent. Bruno Aguiar and Felipe Azevedo return. Felipe Menezes may debutise.
Santos – Rafael, Neymar, Ganso, Juan, Fucile, Bernardo, Rafael Galhardo, and Pedro Castro are absent. Leo and Edu Dracena may return.
Botafogo – Elkeson, Seedorf, and Mattos are absent. Rafael Marques may debutise.
Nautico – Lucio, Marlon, Rogerio, and Cascata are absent. Auremir has left. Joao Paulo may debutise. Local hero Kiezo may feature.
Ponte Preta – Cicinho and Edson Bastos return. Bruno Nunes and Wescley are absent.
Portuguesa – Leo Silva and Leandro Silva are absent.
Cruzeiro – Alex Silva is absent. Willian Magrao returns. Ceara may debutise.
Atletico Mineiro – Serginho, Jo, Neto Berola, and Triguinho are absent. Rever returns.
Internacional – Leandro Damiao, Oscar, Nei, Datolo, Kleber, Forlan are absent. D’Alessandro and Rodrigo Moledo return. Ratinho may debutise.
Flamengo – Ramon, Luiz Antonio, Deivid, Caceres, and Maldonado are absent. Vagner Love, Mark Gonzalez, and Leo Moura return.
Corinthians – Liedson, Alex, Guerrero, Juan Martinez are absent.
Sao Paulo – Lucas, Uvini, Denilson, Fabricio, Rogerio Ceni, Wellington, and Canete are absent.
Vasco da Gama – Felipe, Eduardo Costa, Rodolfo, Eder Luis, Renato Silva, and Felipe Bastos are absent. Wendel may debutise.