TFT Issue 460!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Thoughts
I would keep an eye on Tallinna Kalev vs Levadia Tallinn in Estonia today. Was tempted to get involved on under 3 goals but the markets aren’t out for it yet. The Estonian FA have hilariously made Levadia play on a Monday, which Meistriliiga games are almost never played on. Levadia don’t have a big squad and will be focusing on the trip to Cyprus to take on Anorthosis Famagusta in three days time. I do think that Levadia will win the game but they’re not the best in front of goal and may find it harder than normal here due to tiredness. I’d be looking for around evens in-play but I’ve not heard any team news about this game so do approach it with caution.
It might also be a nice idea to keep an eye on which side AGF show up with tonight. They’re heading to Georgia later this week for what is a huge game for them. However, I don’t know if they want to be in the competition or not and their line-up tonight should confirm their priorities. If AGF field their first-team here then they should win it without much fuss. If they don’t use their first-team here then you could well see a low-scoring draw so it may be one to in-play.
Featured game
GAIS Goteborg vs Malmo FF – away win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between GAIS Goteborg and Malmo.
I don’t usually back Malmo on the road but I’m going to do so today. They have sold their excellent winger Durmaz to Gaziantepspor, which is a blow. However, if there’s one area of Malmo’s team where they can afford to lose players from then it’s midifeld as they’re packed full of quality players. Pekalski is out today too but again, Malmo have lots of depth in midfield and I’m not too concerned about them here with that in mind. They were too good for GAIS in the reversal of this fixture a week ago and they’re more than capable of doing the same here as it’s the same turf, the same opponents, and the same quality gap.
I normally rate GAIS’ chances of upsetting the odds against the bigger sides but they’re a bloody mess right now. Striker Celik has left the club and signed for Pescara in Italy, for starters. In addition to that, boss Axen has resigned from the club and will be temporarily replaced by Nilsson, which is an interesting appointment as he was a legend as Malmo’s boss a couple of years ago. However, it gets worse for GAIS as Finnish goalkeeper Sillanpaa and regular defender Gustafsson are both major doubts for this game. If they miss out then they’ll join essential defender Ekunde on the sidelines, not to mention squad rotation midfielder Aubynn. To say that this is the bare bones of GAIS’ team would be a colossal understatement as their defence is in tatters, morale is at rock-bottom, and their team are very short of alternatives. Even the excellent Wanderson looks a bit fed-up right now and who can blame him? GAIS have played three games since the break and haven’t scored in any of them. The sole reason that they have such a decent home record in the Allsvenskan is because few sides score here. Malmo bring one of the strongest attacks in Sweden to Goteborg to take them on tonight and with half of GAIS’ defence likely to be missing, you have to get the feeling that GAIS won’t keep a clean sheet here.
Therefore, I have to view the away win as a bargain whilst it’s at evens or higher. My sole concern would be that Malmo’s focus and tenacity appears to disappear on the road sometimes, which is irritating. However, from a quality and form perspective, not to mention the aspects I’ve mentioned above, I have to endorse the away win today.
Verdict: Malmo FF to win at evens.
Additional game
Rosenborg BK vs Lillestrom – over 3 goals at 5/6.
I’ve mentioned before that Rosenborg tend to rely a lot on sides being afraid of them nowadays. By showing them too much respect, Rosenborg are generally able to do as they wish and as their speciality is scoring goals, they do tend to win most games.
However, Lillestrom have already demonstrated on innumerate occasions this season that they’re not afraid of anyone. It’s gone against them far more often than it’s gone for them but Lillestrom are a very attacking side and they score goals for fun. They’re really confident at the moment too, following a 3-4 win at Fredrikstad and a 4-2 win against Tromso. Lillestrom have recently sold Icelandic striker Sigurdarson to Wolverhampton Wanderers and that is something that they’re going to have to overcome if they’re to do well here and indeed for the rest of the season. However, a lot of their quality play has come from midfield, most notably Palmason, Toindouba, and especially Knudtzon so I’ll give them the nod here. Rosenborg have the experience and the pace to destroy Lillestrom’s distinctly average defence but they’re also susceptible at the back themselves and Lillestrom could well punish them here.
Lastly, due to Rosenborg’s capitulation last week against Ordabasy in the dying minutes of the game means that they’ve got to go to Kazakhstan in a few days time to try and save their European hopes. Rosenborg may rest players here, which won’t help their defensive problems, and if they do play a full-strength side then you have to expect them to try and put the game to bed early so that they can rest players as the game draws to a conclusion. Either way, I think Lillestrom are primed and ready to upset their illustrious hosts today so I like the option of over 3 goals at 5/6 quite a lot here!
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 5/6.
Team news
Russian Premier League:
FK Krasnodar – No absentees.
Rubin Kazan’ – No absentees.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg – Boss Axen has left and will be temporarily replaced by R.Nilsson. Celik has left. Ekunde and Aubynn are absent. Sillanpaa and Gustafsson are major doubts.
Malmo FF – Durmaz has left. Pekalski is absent.
IFK Norrkoping – Frempong and Tankovic are absent.
Djurgarden – Rajalakso is absent. Ceesay is likely to be absent as is heading to Lech Poznan.