TFT Issue 463!
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Serie A Thoughts
Again, the Brazilian games leave me very cold here. Atletico Mineiro are ridiculously short to beat a more established Santos side. Santos are missing a number of regulars, admittedly, but they’ve also stopped good sides from beating them lately so I won’t underestimate them here. Atletico Mineiro love to concede goals and Santos love to score them so I won’t rule out Santos avoiding defeat here. Atletico Mineiro are rightly favourites when taking into account the available players and the quality at their disposal nowadays but the odds on the home win are a joke, in my view. Palmeiras are short to beat Bahia with the absentees that they have although Bahia have their fair share of absentees too. A new manager at Bahia and a lack of goal threat from Palmeiras makes this a huge “no bet” to me, although Bahia don’t travel well, generally speaking. Lastly, I wouldn’t even look at Flamengo vs Portuguesa with the hosts having just sacked their manager. Flamengo are overrated as it is with no more than a handful of good players and Portuguesa are gritty enough to scrounge a draw here. Will Flamengo’s temporary boss inspire them to glory, though? Vagner Love can win any game for this side if he gets the service. Still, I can’t see any value in this game at all – too many “ifs” and “buts”.
Featured game
Spain U23 vs Japan U23 – Spain U23 to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Olympics opener between Spain and Japan.
As I explained in the preview, I rate Spain as the second strongest side in the tournament. They’ve brought a whole host of talented players and their team at every international level is frankly one of the best around and I see no reason for it to differ here. There’s plenty of pace and attacking intent from Spain’s roaming full-backs, not least in reported Chelsea target Azpilicueta. I’m not sure if they’ll drop Javi Martinez into central defence to lend a bit of experience to the back four but it’s very useful to have him in the squad as he’s a good playmaker too. Imagine putting him in midfield with Athletic Club de Bilbao team-mates Ander Herrera and Iker Muniain, though – that’ll have a very similar effect to that of the Barcelona players in the national team! They’ve also got Mata and Tello in there so to look upon Spain’s midfield as anything but one of the strongest in the tournament would be foolish, in my view. They’ve only got two natural strikers in Rodrigo and Adrian, both of which have played well this season, especially the latter. Therefore, you feel that there will be goals in this Spain team, whether they come from the midfield, ala the senior team, or whether they play a more orthodox formation and finish their chances as a normal side would. Either way, this Spanish side has plenty of options and they’re more than good enough to score a few goals here.
I tend to find that Spanish sides struggle against the Oriental sides due to their work ethic and organisation and I guess it’d be naive to expect anything else here. Japan have demonstrated how hard they work at every level and I would be surprised to see anything but that in this game. However, I do doubt their quality as there’s simply not much of it around. They looked good in the Toulon Tournament on the counter-attack with plenty of pace up front. However, the fact is that only Usami brings any real quality to the team although that’s no slant on him; he’s actually an extremely promising youngster. I’ll talk about Fabian’s displays for Mexico in that tournament all day long or James Rodriguez’s performances from the year before but Usami was as good as anyone at the last Toulon Tournament for what he contributed. His intelligence, his goalscoring, and his assists make him a very dangerous player – I think Bayern have made an astute signing by picking him up and have intelligently loaned him to Hoffenheim for next season so he can get experience. A lot is made of Gotoku Sakai, who was at VfB Stuttgart last season, and Hiroshi Kiyotake of Nurnberg is supposed to be the next big thing. Sakai was ok in spells and I’ve not seen that much of Kiyotake, to be honest. The problem that Japan has is that although their footballing talents are definitely improving all the time, I just don’t think that they’re ready for a tournament like this yet. I don’t think there’s enough physical strength in their squad to upset their Spanish opposition today and if it comes to which side keeps the ball and takes their chances then Spain will win the game; it’s as simple as that.
The only way Japan will upset the odds here is if the Spanish don’t show their composure and thus don’t play their possession game. If Spain keep the ball then they really should have plenty of joy. For me, taking Spain to beat the -1.5 handicap looks very appealing at 6/5.
Verdict: Spain U23 to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Additional games
Mexico U23 vs South Korea U23 – Mexico U23 to win at 7/5.
This one is a little more dicey than the Spain game as Mexico have a habit of not showing up when they should. However, they’re good enough to win this game and I’m happy to give them a chance to do so today at generous odds of 7/5. Mexico are taking this competition seriously, based on their warm-up games. They’ve not perfected their game yet, losing to Spain, but they did get an idea of how South Korea will play against them by taking on Japan at weekend. I think Mexico have approached this tournament intelligently, irrespective of the results that came from their friendlies. With Marco Fabian and Giovani dos Santos in their ranks, however, I simply cannot look beyond the goals that could and should be in their games. Again, Mexico’s defence is often concerning and I think that a tenacious Korean side should be able to cause them problems. However, I do have questions about how good South Korea are at putting the ball in the net and I feel that Mexico will have the upper hand on that front in this game. As long as Mexico don’t get hot-headed and remain composed, they should have enough firepower to win this game against a plucky and tenacious Korean side, especially if Fabian gets the service that he should.
Verdict: Mexico U23 to win at 7/5.
Shirak vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – lay Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv at 10/11.
Bnei Yehuda won the first leg of this tie 2-0 in Israel so there’s no prizes for guessing what type of approach they’ll be taking in Armenia today. They’re a very tenacious side, too – one of the most tenacious in Israel, for my money. However, they’re not great goalscorers and their lack of experience at this level does make me think that they’ll find this trip very tough. After all, this game is being played at around 1500 metres above sea level so altitude definitely favours their Armenian hosts. Bnei Yehuda are the better side, sure, but this is a tricky game that they don’t need to win. Would you risk going out to get an away goal here with that in mind? I wouldn’t – especially not against an inexperienced side like Shirak. I think that this will be a tight game today but with the away side not needing the win and the home side needing to, I think we have to treat the home side’s desire to win with more respect than that of their opponents. Bnei Yehuda should have enough to ride out the overall win in this game but I’d be surprised (and impressed) to see them win in Armenia. For me, there’s value in laying Bnei Yehuda at 10/11.
Verdict: Lay Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv at 10/11.
Ordabasy vs Rosenborg BK – home win with draw no bet at 9/4.
Three days ago, Rosenborg BK were hilariously battling with Lillestrom in the Eliteserien. Quite why the Norwegian FA figured it’d be a good idea to do that ahead of a huge trip to Kazakhstan (what – 3000 miles or something?) is beyond me but it explains why Rosenborg were so lacklustre. Truth be told, despite Rosenborg trying to control the game against Lillestrom, they really struggled to deal with the tenacity of Lillestrom and rarely managed to threaten. You could argue that they were saving their strength for this game but to be honest, I don’t rate Rosenborg that much nowadays. Most sides are intimidated by them and in the big Lerkendal, you can understand why. However, quality-wise, they are not so different from most Norwegian sides nowadays. Ordabasy managed to upset them in Norway despite Rosenborg having a two-goal lead with the Kazakh side clawing it back to 2-2 at the end of the game. Rosenborg crumble under pressure and are generally very slow and predictable. Only Chibuike provides any real pace and skill but he’s greedy and is also absent for this game through injury, which is a problem for Rosenborg. I mean, I respect the experience of Iversen etc. but they need pace and a bit of unpredictability and they just don’t have that here, in my view. How are Rosenborg going to deal with the pace of former Midtylland striker Collins, who joined Ordabasy this season and caused problems in the first leg? Both he and the experienced Gueye form a dangerous attacking duo that Rosenborg look incapable of dealing with. Ordabasy aren’t as good as Rosenborg; I can’t argue the point that they are because I’d be wrong. However, they’re more consistent than Rosenborg and they’ve got more unpredictability about them than the Norwegian giants do so I genuinely think that the Kazakh hosts are well-equipped to not just qualify for the next round but to also win this game today, especially with Rosenborg needing to attack them.
Ordabasy have had longer to prepare for this game and Rosenborg have travelled a long way to play them. For me, there’s plenty of value to be found in giving the hosts the opportunity to win the game with draw no bet cover at 9/4.
Verdict: Ordabasy to win with draw no bet at 9/4.
St.Johnstone vs Eskisehirspor – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
There’s not a great deal to write about this one, really. The two sides were well-matched overall in the first leg although it’s fair to say that Eskisehirspor were the better side in the first-half. Still, both sides are still floundering a little from their Summer departures and it clearly showed with both sides looking rusty in attack. St.Johnstone actually didn’t look like they existed in attack whereas Eskisehirspor scored twice but both came about via deflections. The Turkish side are obviously the better of the two teams but there’s not as much in it as the odds suggested that there was, which was emphasised by the displays of the two sides. For this game, Eskisehirspor know that the job is done if they hold their nerve and the Super Lig side are generally good at frustrating sides. They don’t have a terribly hard task, either, with St.Johnstone having sold almost all of their attacking talent pre-season. Word has it that Tade will be forced to play in this game despite not being fully fit, such is St.Johnstone’s desperation to get a result here. Eskisehirspor are more than capable of keeping them out if they don’t do anything stupid, though. Eskisehirspor may nick it with a low-scoring win but the news that goalscorer Batuhan Karadeniz is absent is a big blow for them and I doubt that they’ll manage it without him. No, I can only see a low-scoring affair here, whatever happens. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at 5/6 is well worth it here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Rosenborg BK – Chibuike is absent.
Aalesund FK – Orry Larsen is absent. Skiri is a doubt. James returns.
Tromso – No news.
CSKA Sofia – Tengarinha, P.Stoyanov, K.Stoyanov, Platini, and Sheridan are absent. Bandalovski is a doubt.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Serginho, Benjelloun, and Rodrigues have left as their chairman has announced that he can’t support the club financially any more so players either need to leave or take a wage cut.
Levski Sofia – Romen Eli, Yovov, Dimov, and Pinto are absent.
Lech Poznan – Drewniak is absent. Tralka is a big doubt.
Legia Warsaw – Choto and Wolski are absent. Vrdoljak returns.
Liepajas Metalurgs – Zirnis is absent.
Ruch Chorzow – Very hot temperature in Skopje. No absentees.
Viktoria Plzen – Cisovsky and Zeman are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Zahustel, Brunclik, Opiela, Stohanzl, Janicek, Sirl, Kulic, and Chramosta are absent.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Hadad is absent. Aiyenugba returns.
Maccabi Netanya – Khatib returns. Levi, Dajani, Ben-Harush, and Binyamin are absent. Maccabi Netanya had a 29-hour journey to get to Finland.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen is absent.
Inter Turku – Bahne is absent.
MyPa Anjalankoski – O’Neill is absent. Anttilainen and Sihvola are doubts.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Manninen is absent.
St.Johnstone – Mackay is absent. Tade is a doubt.
Elfsborg Boras – No absentees.
Kalmar FF – Carlsson has retired.
AIK Solna – Ibrahim is absent.
Eskisehirspor – Batuhan Karadeniz is absent.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Twente Enschede – Bengtsson, Landzaat, Boschker, and Kuipers are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – No absentees.
AGF Aarhus – No absentees.
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro – Triguinho, Neto Berola, and Leandro Donizete are absent.
Santos – Ganso, Neymar, Rafael, Durval, Galhardo, Patito Rodrigues, and David Braz are absent. Bernardo, Fucile, and Edu Dracena may return. Bill may debutise.
Flamengo – Caceres, Muralha, Maldonado are absent. Deivid is a doubt. Manager Santana was sacked. Interim coach Jaime de Almeida will take charge for this game.
Portuguesa – Leandro Silva is absent. Rogerio and Ananias return.
Palmeiras – Cicinho, Luan, Roman, Thiago Heleno, Wesley, and Mauricio Ramos are absent. Marcos Assuncao and Barcos may return.
Bahia – Coelho, Madson, Avine, Jeferson, Neto, Gerley, Gabriel, Mancini, Vander, and Elias are absent. Ciro returns. First game in charge for Caio Junior.