TFT Issue 468!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Apologies, first and foremost – horribly short of time at the moment, which is my own fault, really. Subsequently, if you require elaboration on the below then please let me know and I’ll add more around 12:00 GMT.
Thoughts
The Olympics have not been kind to me thus far. However, I still see very little value in today’s games, irrespective of the superstition side of things. For example, GB vs Uruguay – what a nightmare. Uruguay should beat GB but have been poor so far. GB have been ok in spells but have also been poor. Anything could happen here! Spain should be beating Morocco but they also should have beaten Honduras and Japan and you know what happened there. Brazil should beat New Zealand but this is a decent New Zealand time and Brazil’s defending has been bloody awful so I don’t see any value there. Egypt are marginally better than Belarus at creating chances and scoring goals but Belarus are much better defensively than they are so I’ve no idea what’ll happen there. South Korea have impressed so far but so have Gabon, in a strange way. South Korea should win but those odds are ridiculous – in-play odds may appeal more. Mexico should nick it against the Swiss but the Swiss are good this time around and Mexico only do well when Dos Santos comes on. His Manager says he needs more game time before he becomes a regular. I think he needs to play more for Mexico or they won’t be going anywhere fast. Japan should nick it against Honduras but Honduras have impressed me a lot thus far so again, I’ve no idea here – maybe both sides to score would be good in-play? Lastly, Senegal should nick it against UAE but is there any value there? I don’t see it. Senegal do well as underdogs but not favourites and UAE have surprised both Uruguay and GB in recent times, albeit in spells, so I see no value there.
Featured game
Molde FK vs Basel – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Molde and Basel in Norway.
Both are very attacking sides by nature and neither knows how to keep a clean sheet in general. Basel are much more experienced than Molde but Molde have players who can surprise Basel, namely Angan, Eikrem, Hoseth, and Berg Hestad. I have question marks over the holding position role at Molde but I also have question marks over Basel’s leadership at the back so it balances out. Basel have excellent and experienced forwards whilst Molde have that never-say-die attitude and attacking power. I think Basel should win the game but I think they’ll be made to work hard by their Norwegian hosts and may need a few goals to do so.
For me, the value has to be in over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Neftchi Baku – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
I have enjoyed the past two displays of Ironi Kiryat Shmona as they’ve demonstrated a lot of composure and intelligence to outplay MSK Zilina twice. However, I do question their efficiency as they’re not playing at home when playing in Israel, they’ve not got much experience, and they’re not a well supported side. Therefore, I do think that odds of 1/2 on them winning at home against a side that frequently appears in Europe is a bit of a joke. Admittedly, Neftchi aren’t great at the back but this side passes the ball well and attacks with conviction and I do think that they’ll score in this game. I don’t see the hosts running away with this game, if they even win it, so my call is to give the Azeri visitors a +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Verdict: Neftchi Baku to win with +1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Anderlecht vs Ekranas Panevezys – home win with -2.5 handicap at evens.
I think there’s a huge gap between these two nowadays. Ekranas have had to part with a number of their more talented/experienced players due to financial problems whereas Anderlecht are just as strong as last season. Admittedly, they’ve got a new manager in van der Brom – a good manager, I might add – but the quality is still there. Anderlecht have defensive worries and could concede here so I would understand if you took -2 AH in-play. However, -2.5 appeals to me at evens anyway because Anderlecht should have way too much firepower for struggling Ekranas.
Verdict: Anderlecht to beat the -2.5 handicap at evens.
FC Copenhagen vs Club Brugge – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
For me, Copenhagen are way too short here. They’ve been very good in Europe over the past couple of years and have bags of experience. However, a lot has changed there, including their manager and the departure of a number of key players. I think they’ve been significantly weaker than usual in the Superligaen this season and there could be an upset on he cards here. Club Brugge have spent big and brought in some good players. They looked good against Beveren, although Beveren aren’t very good anyway. I rate Club Brugge’s style and new signings more than I rate the remnants of what was a good Copenhagen side, though. I’m edgy that Copenhagen’s new boss is Ariel Jacobs, former Anderlecht boss, but I still find value on a good Club Brugge side with draw no bet at 7/5.
Verdict: Club Brugge to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Slask Wroclaw vs Helsingborg – lay Slask Wroclaw at 4/5.
This is a very, very tight game. However, Slask look way too short for me. They’ve made a couple of good acquisitions lately with Polonia Warsaw collapsing but they’re still a very average side en mass. They’ve got a lot of new faces with many of last season’s good players having moved on and they’ve lost a lot of quality. I thought they were poor in both games against Buducnost Podgorica and should struggle here too. Helsingborg aren’t what they were but they’re mid-season and are more than capable of keeping their Polish hosts out. As long as Helsingborg are composed and Slask don’t produce a miraculous display, I think there’s plenty of value to be found in laying Slask at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Slask Wroclaw at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Slovan Liberec – Rabusic and Nezmar are absent. Delarge is a doubt.
Dinamo Zagreb – Sammir, Kovacic, Ademi, Puljic, Tomacek, and Tonel are absent. Badelj is a doubt.
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Tibi returns. Tasevski is a doubt. Lencse may debutise.
Partizan Belgrade – Kamara, Eduardo, Puljejevic, and Scepovic are absent. Zambia is a doubt.
Fenerbahce – Kuyt, Egemen Korkmaz, Mehmet Topal, Salih Ucan, and Ali Kaldirim may debutise. Emre, Dia, and Bilica left the club.
Slask Wroclaw – No absentees. Jodlowiec may debutise.
Anderlecht – Juhasz and Kouyate are absent. Praet is a doubt. Suarez has left for CSKA Moscow.
Club Brugge – Vleminckx, Trickovski, Jorgensen, and Stenman are absent.
FC Copenhagen – Claudemir and Ottesen return.
Celtic – Commons and Stokes are doubts.