TFT Issue 47!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Uniao de Leiria vs Porto – away win with -1.5 handicap at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between Uniao de Leiria and giants Porto.
The hosts have over-achieved for a great portion of the season thus far but that’s finally starting to balance out following some important departures from the club in January, namely experienced midfielder Silas and star striker Carlao. Since Leiria sold those two players, they’ve managed to score an atrocious two goals in eight games and thus it’s no surprise whatsoever that they’ve lost five of those games, four of which were at home! Leiria haven’t actually scored for three consecutive games now and with strikers N’Gal and Zhang both absent for this game tonight, I can only envision a similar scenario, especially against arguably the best side in Portugal currently. Leiria can be hard to beat on occasion but having already lost all four home games so far in 2011 against SL Benfica, Vitoria Guimaraes, Beira-Mar, and Olhanense respectively (three of which were with -1.5 goal handicap), it’s hard to see them doing anything against Porto tonight.
Porto miss full-back Sapuranu for this game but nobody else of consequence so they’re at virtually full-strength. The Portuguese FA have been rather kind to their favourite team with Porto having had a decent break since their game with CSKA Moscow in Russia last thursday and thus “The Dragons” should be fit and ready tonight. They’ve got two of the deadliest attackers in Portugal at their disposal in Falcao and Hulk and their sheer numbers of attacking talent that can sit behind them or on the flanks is truly terrifying. Porto’s defence has even looked solid, which has surprised me as I envisioned the departure of Bruno Alves at the start of the season to be somewhat fatal to Porto defensively. However, they’ve looked assured at the back and although they’re playing in a league that they’re a lot better than en mass, I still think that they are playing very well indeed.
Porto have beaten the -1.5 handicap in six out of their eight Liga Sagres games in 2011 and I’d be surprised to see them do anything but that tonight. Leiria are over-achieving; they’re generally just a relegation-battling side and thus they’re well out of their depth here. Far worse sides than Porto have ripped Leiria apart lately and with Porto’s offensive power looking more menacing than ever, it’s becoming increasingly hard to overlook Porto’s chances of winning this game with great ease. For me, there’s a lot of value in backing Porto to win this game with a -1.5 handicap at 5/4 – they’re simply a lot better than their hosts, moreso than the Liga Sagres table suggests.
Team news – Uniao de Leiria miss Paulo Sergio, Zhang, and N’Gal whereas Porto miss Sapunaru, Sereno, and Souza.
Verdict: Porto to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 5/4.