TFT Issue 470!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Esbjerg vs FC Copenhagen – away win at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Superligaen game in Denmark between unfancied Esbjerg and heavyweights FC Copenhagen.
Esbjerg aren’t very good to begin with but the recent sale of star Rieks to NEC Nijmegen lately (no doubt as some kind of replacement for Schone, who joined Ajax) massively hinders Esbjerg’s ability to create chances and score goals. That’s a colossal problem for them, much moreso than it would be for most other Superligaen clubs as Esbjerg simply have no defensive ability and no composure. They will almost always concede goals but if they’re not scoring goals then they’re simply going to get torn apart. Demba-Nyren is a useful player to have in their attack and both Ankersen and Smarason are decent players but we’re scratching at the bottom of the barrel here, gents – there’s very little to compliment in this Esbjerg side and the fact that they’ve lost all the games that they’ve conceded in this season speaks volumes about the direction that they’re heading in.
Visitors Copenhagen have undergone a lot of changes pre-season, including a change of manager. As it goes, I don’t really rate this current Copenhagen side and I’m especially dubious when they take on a good side. They’ve got a lot of gelling to do and need to discover new ways to score goals now that the majority of their attack has left. However, they’re still one of the top three sides in Denmark with some ease and they definitely have the experience and manpower to ride out a win against a poor Esbjerg side today as long as they remain focused. I like Abdellaoue and I like Santin but they need to link up properly for Copenhagen to be effective. Bolanos will be essentially in making that happen so there are definitely still areas for Jacobs to work on. However, there really should be enough in this Copenhagen side for them to win this game, especially with their defence still being strong enough to keep out opponents.
Copenhagen will most likely have their eyes fixed on the trip to Brugge next week in the UEFA Champions League game. However, a mixture of their first and second team should realistically be enough to beat a poor Esbjerg side, in my view. It may not be as comfortable as usual for Copenhagen to win this game but if they don’t win it then they only have themselves to blame.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 5/6.
Additional games
Sporting Charleroi vs Club Brugge – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Handicapping Club Brugge on the road? I must be mad! Curiously enough, it’s interesting to see that the first two games (coincidentally) in this section today feature sides that will meet one another next week. That was unexpected!
Anyway, onto more relevant matters – why should Club Brugge run riot here? Well, they’ve impressed me a lot with their Summer signings and I think that they’ll give Anderlecht a very tough test for the title this time around. They look a very strong attacking unit, enough so to prevent themselves from losing the stupid games where their opponents park the bus and their “Plan B” is nowhere to be seen. I really like how strong they look and how deep their squad is. They were immense against a poor Beveren side and played well at Copenhagen so I see no reason for them to stop playing well here.
Charleroi are back in the Eerste Klasse but their stay is unlikely to be a long way, in all brutal honesty. The departure of Gueye deprives them of a target man and the departure of Losada deprives them of a creative attacker. There’s very little left in this side going forward and they’re not good enough at the back, simply put. They say that you’re supposed to start the season as you mean to continue. If Charleroi are conceding four goals at Mechelen in their opening game then they’re going to get relegated. Just imagine what Club Brugge could do to that defence if they show up!
As long as the visitors are determined, they should win this game comfortably. I’m still a shade hesitant because Club Brugge are not known for their ability to keep clean sheets. Nonetheless, I like the odds and thus I like the bet.
Verdict: Club Brugge to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Anderlecht vs Germinal Beerschot – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Anderlecht still need to get used to life under Van der Brom and there have been some signs of that thus far. The departure of Suarez to CSKA Moscow is an interesting one as he would bail them out in the bigger games so Anderlecht need to seek out a new hero in midfield. Nonetheless, Anderlecht has a very deep squad when it comes to attacking and I think that they’ll unleash themselves properly here. They were never really out of control of the game against Kortrijk and only absent-minded/complacent play against Lokeren in the game before let them back into the game when they had no right to be. Anderlecht are controlling these games and if they take their chances then they’ll clear handicaps, basically. Their battering of Ekranas earlier this week makes me think that they should be inspired here. I really like Van der Brom as a boss, as it goes – he gets the best out of his teams. He wasn’t given the right amount of time at Vitesse, in my view, but that’s another story. I think Anderlecht were smart to appoint him and I believe that they’ll reap the benefits in due course. I fancy them to win this one convincingly today based on their recent displays and given that Germinal are notoriously bad away from home, year after year. I think Germinal were smart to sign Coulibaly to replace Sidibe up front as their season capitulated after he went AWOL. Their defence still looks awful without Kagelmacher, though – they’re going to concede a lot of goals this season. For me, taking this blooming Anderlecht side to beat the -1.5 handicap is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Anderlecht to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
GAIS Goteborg vs Atvidaberg – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Things are going from bad to worse in the GAIS camp. They lost their derby with Hacken earlier this week and to add to their poor displays for the past few months and the virtual disappearance of star attacker Wanderson, they now have to contend with the economic difficulties of the world catching up with them. Money is tight and reports suggest that Wanderson will be offloaded whether GAIS avoid the drop or not with Helsingborg reportedly very interested, which would surprise…nobody. Helsingborg are bloody awful in attack for a big side! GAIS have already lost striker Celik; to lose Wanderson would destroy them. This side is not creating chances, not scoring chances, and aren’t playing with any conviction so I find it very hard to take them seriously here, despite the quality that I know they have.
Visitors Atvidaberg are a funny bunch, aren’t they? Despite not being particularly good, they’re exceptionally determined and can score goals at any time. They can’t defend for shit but they usually find the net and scoring here should mean that they at least avoid defeat, based on the recent displays of GAIS. Prodell and Eriksson have been immense for Atvidaberg this season and they’re showing no signs of slowing down, bizarrely. I’m sure that they’ll be additionally motivated to do well given how poorly their hosts are playing and for Atvidaberg, this really is a game that they could and should win, for my money, even if they do concede.
For me, there’s value in taking nutcases Atvidaberg to win with draw no bet cover at evens.
Verdict: Atvidaberg to win with draw no bet at evens.
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Gefle – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I like this one a lot more than I should, really. Sweden has been a bit shit to me lately so I’m hoping for a change of luck today.
Essentially, we have two poor sides locking horns here and neither of them can afford to lose. Syrianska have been woeful at…well, everything, to be blunt. They’ve lost all momentum, all belief, and all organisation and I will be opposing them when they take on a good side, rest assured. Gefle aren’t a good side though, to be blunt. Gefle won’t like playing on natural turf but they’ve got a decent chance of winning this game because Syrianska have been awful in defence of late. Gefle need that to actually score goals because their strikers are average and/or under-achieving. Defensively speaking, Gefle are good, in my view, although much moreso at home than on the road. However, they cannot create and score chances, hence their predicament. Barring the bigger/better and goalscoring sides, though, all of Gefle’s away games this season have gone under 2.5 goals due to their boring but effective defensive approach. Syrianska are not a good goalscoring side and are struggling with confidence. I can’t help but feel that this game will go under 2.5 goals, whatever happens. Neither side should have the firepower to upset this bet and despite the importance of this game, odds of 4/5 have seduced me into taking this one.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Please add your own team news accordingly as I am short on time at the moment – sorry!