TFT Issue 471!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Malmo FF vs BK Hacken Goteborg – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan game between Malmo FF and BK Hacken Goteborg.
The league table indicates that there isn’t much between these two sides. I’m here to state otherwise, however. For me, Malmo are streets ahead of Hacken and I fully expect them to show it today too.
First of all, Malmo are going to be very motivated for this game. Not only have they become inspired thanks to Elfsborg’s stuttering form of late but they also have a score to settle following their completely unexpected 5-0 drubbing in the reversal of this fixture earlier this season.
That was at the start of the season, though – now Malmo are firing on all cylinders and they look bloody good to me. It’s not a coincidence that Malmo have won seven out of their eight home games this season whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game and having conceded just once at home all season long. This side doesn’t have a good defence, either, so what does that tell you about how strong they are with their possession? Few away sides can put in a good display in Malmo because Malmo themselves are a very good side and give very little away. Malmo have a whole host of attacking alternatives that have been tried and tested and for my money, they’re the most potent side in Sweden. Malmo have won three games on the bounce now and I expect them to make this a fourth as they’re a superb side by Allsvenskan standards and they also don’t have European football on their minds.
Now, Hacken have had a good season, all things considered. They never really get the respect that they deserve for the football that they play and the fact that they’re a selling club but continue to do well year after year. However, there is a limit to Hacken’s success and this is it, basically. Malmo are too good for Hacken, in my eyes, and I fully expect that to show by the end of the game today. Hacken are a bit too disjointed to do well in games like these. Let’s not forget that as devastating as Hacken’s attacking can be, their defending is utterly calamitous at the best of times. Hacken have actually won three consecutive games ahead of this one although I have to admit that I’ve not been convinced by them in any of those games. Again, you can only respect a side that wins games, especially when they win without playing well. However, in the back of your mind, you have to be aware that some sides will punish them for not playing well and Malmo should be one of those sides. Amusingly enough, star striker Waris misses this game through suspension for an excessive celebration after he scored against bitter rivals GAIS Goteborg earlier this week and he’s a big loss for the visitors. It’ll be down to Makondele and those notorious counter-attacks because Hacken shouldn’t have the possession required to be able to do anything else.
I think we’re going to see a much more one-sided game here than both the odds and the league table suggests. I genuinely think Malmo are going to stuff Hacken here. They’ve got better players in every position and they’re a much more complete and experienced side. For me, there’s value in Malmo beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Ranegie to score against his old club, anyone?
Verdict: Malmo FF to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Additional games
Mlada Boleslav vs Ceske Budejovice – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Rumour has it that Mlada Boleslav are still missing a whole host of players for this game, just as they were for their game with Twente mid-week. I’ve not had this confirmed yet so approach with caution but if the players are out that I believe to be out then I like this tip a lot.
Mlada Boleslav don’t like being favourites, first and foremost. They’re more than happy to upset the odds as underdogs and to score when they shouldn’t but breaking sides down is not their style at all. They tend to concede stupid goals and then pour forward in search of an equaliser etc. which generally means that they’re an overs side. However, with young Chramosta supposedly missing today, their attacking gameplan is going to take a hefty blow. You saw how ineffectual they were at Teplice in their opening game of the Gambrinus Liga campaign and I don’t imagine that today will be any different. Fortunately for Mlada Boleslav, they’re only facing Ceske Budejovice, who have next to no firepower. They’re a very strong defensive unit, even moreso now that Tomas Repka is organising it, and they won’t often leave their own half on the road. They’ll try to score and hold the lead or at least keep the scoreline respectable. To be honest, Ceske Budejovice usually have some joy here too with three out of their last four visits going under 2.5 goals. Given that Mlada Boleslav prefer their games open and goal-filled, that’s quite some achievement.
If Mlada Boleslav are missing the players here that they’re supposed to be missing and Ceske Budejovice put in a good display then this game really should go under 2.5 goals. 4/5 is good odds for it too, in my eyes. If I was braver I’d probably take the 0-1 scoreline for Ceske Budejovice as a fun long shot but I just have no faith in them being able to score.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
AB Copenhagen vs Lyngby – away win at 5/6.
The quality gap here is huge nowadays! AB Copenhagen are still a big club but they’re on the verge of collapsing due to a lack of quality. We saw it for large parts of last season and I expect more of the same this season, especially after their defeat at Hobro on the opening day of the season. They’re just a bunch of kids nowadays and the more talented ones are sold rather quickly so not much hope remains for this club. Lyngby, on the other hand, have special powers of survival. They can’t defend but they’re excellent in attack and will score against every side in this league, I’m sure. It doesn’t matter what happens to Lyngby – whoever leaves or whatever division they’re in – as they always play the same way. It’s usually effective, too – it’s difficult to stop Lyngby playing their way. In Division 1, they’re easily one of the best sides, especially as they’ve managed to keep hold of Mortensen and old Peter Madsen. They’re going to have to cope without Christensen and Larsen in midfield, both of which were sold pre-season, but they always manage to do so with other players that leave and it doesn’t hurt them too much. I think Lyngby will be just fine this season and will most likely head straight back to the Superligaen. AB Copenhagen may not stay in the division this time around. These two sides are going in opposite directions and I think that Lyngby have more than enough about them to win this game at 5/6.
Verdict: Lyngby to win at 5/6.
Vikingur Gotu vs TB Tvoroyri – lay Vikingur Gotu at 8/5.
Vikingur Gotu may piss me off and win this game but there’s simply no way on earth that they can be so short for this game. The first reason for that is that their sole strength – defending – is not a strength at all for this game. Vikingur’s back four is organised by the experienced Atli Gregersen, who is still one of the best centre-backs in the country. However, he landed himself a four-match ban after being sent off in the game against HB Torshavn and that basically means that Vikingur can and will concede goals against everyone. They’ve shipped seven goals in the two games that he hasn’t played in, losing their most recent game 1-4 against IF Fuglafjordur just a few days ago.
In addition to the above, leader Vatnhamar is set to depart for Denmark to study. No exact date has been given as of yet but that’ll be a huge blow to any far-fetched title aspirations that they may have. Add to that the fact that Vikingur simply don’t have a recognisable goalscorer and you have to start questioning whether they’re worth such ridiculously short odds.
TB are not an especially good side but they’re the most tenacious side in the Faroe Islands when it comes to preventing other sides from winning. I mean, there’s no club in the Meistaradeildin to have lost less away games than they have this season. The secret to their success is that they almost always score on the road. If you score, you stand a good chance of avoiding defeat, especially if you work hard too. TB work very hard and they’re not a side to underestimate. The only sides that have beaten TB this season when they’ve been the away side have been the sides that score lots of goals (e.g. HB Torshavn). B36 Torshavn, IF Fuglafjordur, and EB/Streymur have all been tremendously frustrated by TB when hosting them this season and I expect more of the same today.
For me, there’s potentially huge vaue in laying Vikingur Gotu at 8/5, especially when you consider that this is their third game in nine days, which they definitely don’t have the squad for!
Verdict: Lay Vikingur Gotu at 8/5.
Haka Valkeakoski vs Inter Turku – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This is a very bold one but I still like it. There are too many attacking players out for this game for it to go over 2.5 goals with any logical reasoning. Inter Turku have lost the majority of their width and creativity with Ojala and Lehtonen’s absence and Haka are still floundering without Dema. Marco Matrone and McFaul are both huge doubts for this game, as is striker Metzger, sound it sounds like Robinson vs Inter Turku today, basically. Still, Ristila’s side are battlers and they’ll work as hard as ever here. Inter Turku will not like playing on this pitch; it won’t aid them in the slightest with their problems in creating chances without two very influential players. Bouwman’s absence in midfield is another huge problem for them and although they do have adequate replacements, Inter Turku are still being robbed of what I would call “match-winners”. Don’t get me wrong here – Sirbiladze will score if given the right service and Kauko is a threat but it’s not much for Haka to have to contend with. Inter are usually formidable foes because of the number of ways that they can attack you. That’s simply not the case today and it showed against IFK Mariehamn in their last game as they couldn’t find a way through the IFK defence despite having the lion’s share of possession in the second-half of the game. Inter could and probably should win this game but will they? I wouldn’t put any money on it. I do like under 2.5 goals, though – it’s going to take one or both of these sides to capitulate defensively in order for this bet to be ruined, in my opinion.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Siauliai vs Ekranas Panevezys – home win with draw no bet at 9/4.
And today’s long shot is for Siauliai to beat Ekranas at ludicrously long odds of 9/4 – and that’s with draw no bet cover!
I won’t beat around the bush, gents – Ekranas are a better side than Siauliai. They’re a more experienced side than Siauliai too. However, financial issues have forced Ekranas to part with some big players and it’s beginning to show. They’ve just come back from a 5-0 humping in Belgium, courtesy of Anderlecht, and they’ve got to host the Belgian heavyweights in a few days time too. Will their minds be elsewhere? Possibly. Will they be demoralised from such a thumping? I would think so. The thing is that Ekranas are usually superb on the road in Lithuania because they know how to keep sides out. Ekranas build from the back and this gives them the confidence that they need to win games as they know that a single goal scored is often going to be enough for them to actually win the game. However, it’s a different story with Siauliai, who have played some marvellous attacking football this season. They’re still insane at the back but going forward, they’ve only failed to score once this season when playing at home. Ironically enough, that was during a 0-1 defeat against…yes, you guessed it – Ekranas Panevezys! Things have changed since then, though – Ekranas look more tired and Siauliai are on fire. Suduva had to score three goals here in May just to get the draw and Zalgiris needed to score two in April to avoid defeat. Siauliai can and will score goals and I don’t think Ekranas have the firepower to match them, not with Velicka having moved on. For me, the value has to be on the samba hosts winning this one with draw no bet cover at 9/4 against a weaker and tired Ekranas side.
Verdict: Siauliai to win with draw no bet at 9/4.
PSV Eindhoven vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam – AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 6/5.
PSV may have beaten Ajax to the signing of Narsingh from Heerenveen but I suspect that it’s the only thing they’ll be beating Ajax to this season. Despite PSV possessing some excellent strikers, they’re short of an entire defence and are still unsure as to who will be their new number one following the signings of Tyton and Waterman respectively following PSV’s timely sale of Isaksson to Kasimpasa. Van Bommel’s return will add leadership and organisation to an occasionally non-existent midfield, which is a plus. The fact that Dick Advocaat is their new boss helps them out, too – he’s a very good manager with bags of experience. Are they ready to lock horns with Ajax again, though? My instinct says not. I still think that they’re missing another good attacking midfielder and a good defence and that should cost them ultimately. I’ve watched PSV in a few friendlies in the past few weeks and they’ve not impressed me once so I don’t expect much from them today.
Ajax, on the other hand, have looked good. They’re going to have to get used to life without Vertonghen but De Boer’s side have a strong level of cohesion and I’m sure that they’ll manage it. Ajax haven’t dipped into the transfer market much and I don’t blame them; they’ve got a very good balance to their squad right now. Who they have signed has been impressive, though, with Danish playmaker Schone joining from NEC Nijmegen on a free transfer and Swedish wonderkid Sana joining from IFK Goteborg. Both are very shrewd signings, in my opinion. Sana is a very gifted dribbler with tremendous pace and Schone can help take the burden off fellow Dane Eriksen in midfield. As long as Ajax can keep Sigthorsson fit this season then they should be set for the title again as they look too strong for everyone else.
For me, there’s value in Ajax beating PSV at 6/5. Ajax have just looked that bit more unified and confident in their abilities of late whilst PSV are still getting used to life under Advocaat.
N.B. Keep an eye out for Lukoki at Ajax – he was outstanding in the Toulon Tournament and looks set for a big season.
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 6/5.
Sandnes Ulf vs Lillestrom – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
The odds on this one surprised me a lot. Sandnes Ulf may not be the most clinical of sides but they attack a lot and they usually do it pretty damn well too. Their defending isn’t worth mentioning but their attacking is surprisingly good. There’s plenty of pace and movement in attack and their lethal long throws have caused no end of problems to Eliteserien sides already this season as Stromsgodset found out a couple of games ago. Sandnes Ulf don’t fear anyone and I admire the way they approach their football. They’re very much an over 2.5 goals team and against Lillestrom, who are very similar in their approach, strengths, and weaknesses, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see plenty of goals here. Lillestrom are still getting used to life without Sigurdsson but there’s plenty of belief and attacking power in their ranks so I can’t help but see this one going over 2.5 goals. I was expecting something around the 4/6 or 8/11 mark for overs here so 4/5 suits me just fine!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Amkar Perm’ – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Anzhi may have their sights set on the trip to The Netherlands next week as they look to protect their 2-0 lead against Vitesse Arnhem but they have more than enough depth to win this game convincingly today and I think they will too. Traore and Zhirkov will sit this one out, which isn’t ideal. However, Anzhi are fortunate enough to be hosting Amkar Perm, who never travel well. Amkar always “park the bus” in away games and it’s simply down to how well Anzhi deal with that today as to how well the game will end for them. I’m not his biggest fan but Eto’o’s pace and movement will cause them a lot of problems. Let’s not forget the playmaking of Boussoufa and the aerial threat of Samba from set pieces so Anzhi are not short of options. As long as they convert the chances that they’ll inevitably create then they really should beat defensive mogusl Amkar Perm today, irrespective of their most recent result against CSKA Moscow!
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moscow – away win at 6/5.
There isn’t much value left in this one but there’s just a smidge that I’m keen to take advantage of. Dinamo Moscow are struggling to juggle European football and domestic football, which has shown both in their results on the continent and in the RPL thus far. They’ve bolstered their squad since last season with Dzsudszak and Noboa both joining them. However, as much as I don’t like the guy, I can’t help but feel that letting Voronin leave on loan was a big mistake. Dinamo Moscow were successful last season because they were very workmanlike. With Kuranyi up front, they may have more finesse but there’ll be considerably less running all the time. There’s a lot of creative players in the Dinamo midfield but it’s not always so easy to get Kuranyi into their games, which is where Dinamo are having problems right now. They’re usually solid enough at the back but have struggled so far this season, conceding goals too easily. Dinamo aren’t in good shape for this derby and I think Spartak will punish them in Khimki, just as they did last season.
Spartak themselves are guilty of not taking the chances that they create. I watched them rip Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod apart in their last game and yet they still needed a penalty at the end of the game to secure three points, despite their dominance. They’re getting better at taking their chances, though, which is pleasing to see. Let’s face it – there are goals in attack whilst Ari, Welliton, and even newbie Emenike patrol it. McGeady has looked excellent thus far too, with his pace and dribbling causing no end of problems for Russian defences. I would question the quality of his deliveries over a period of time but the impact he has on this Spartak side is unquestionable. Spartak also have Bilyaletdinov, Rafael Carioca, De Zeeuw, and newcomer Kim Kallstrom to call upon when it comes to making chances so they’re really not short of options. Defensively, they could do with learning about a little-known tactic called “the offside trap” as their defenders appear to have not heard of it yet. In all seriousness, Spartak have problems defending against pace and that is the usual reason that they concede goals. Still, I like what Unai Emery is doing here and Spartak look more organised than the usual rabble that they show in their games so I’m going to give Spartak the nod in this derby today.
For me, there’s value in taking Spartak to win this game at 6/5 although I’d leave it if it drops further as the value will then be gone, in my view.
Verdict: Spartak Moscow to win at 6/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem – Serwy and Vandenbroucke are absent.
AA Gent – Boere, Klla, Mboyo, and Thijs are absent.
OH Leuven – De Vriese, Thompson, and Ruytinckx are absent.
Racing Genk – Koulibaly, Sandomierski, Joneleit, Simays, Hubert, Kumordzi, Bright, and Wertelaers are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Coritiba – Cleiton, Jackson, Eltinho, Sergio Manoel, Marcel, Anderson Aquino, Rafinha, Keirrison are absent. Emerson is a doubt. Junior Urso returns. Escudero may debutise.
Fluminense – Anderson, Valencia, and Bruno Vieira are absent. Edinho returns.
Gremio – Andre Lima, Vilson, Leandro, Bertoglio, Julio Cesar, and Fabio Aurelio are absent. Marcelo Moreno is a doubt. Kleber returns.
Bahia – Souza, Gabriel, Kleberson, Elias, Jefferson, and Coelho are absent. Ciro returns.
Sao Paulo – Luis Fabiano, Canete, Wellington, Fabricio, Osvaldo, Denilson, Lucas Moura, and Bruno Uvini are absent. Douglas and Casemiro return.
Sport Recife – Rivaldo, Bruno Aguiar, and Willian Rocha are absent.
Vasco da Gama – Rodolfo and Dede are absent. Tenorio, Nilton, and Juninho return.
Corinthians – Martinez, Emerson, and Chicao are absent.
Cruzeiro – Magrao, Alex Silva, Mateus, and Rafael Donato are absent. Leo, Ceara, and Sandro Silva return.
Ponte Preta – Edson Bastos, Wescley, Nikao, and Tony are absent. Ferron returns.
Nautico – Rhayner, Felipe, Marlon, Rogerio, Kim, and Martinez are absent. Alessandro returns. Patric may debutise.
Santos – Neymar, Ganso, Pedro Castro, R.Galhardo, Rafael, Edu Dracena, Bernardo, Adriano, and Arouca are absent.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split – Susic is absent.
Split – Krizanas is absent. Golubar has left.
Slaven Koprivnica – Vugrinec and Gregurina are absent.
Zadar – Terkes is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus – Berg and Moldskred return.
Brondby – J.Larsen is absent. Rommedahl returns.
Midtylland – Duncan and Andersson may debutise.
Randers – No absentees.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Wargh, Aalto, and Emet are absent. Agyeman returns.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Manninen is absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Mattila, Dema, Hjelm, and Pesonen are absent. McFaul, M.Matrone, and Metzger are doubts. Kastrati has left.
Inter Turku – Bahne, Ojala, Lehtonen, Bouwman, and Parviainen are absent.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen is absent. Sohna may debutise.
FC Honka Espoo – Aijala is a doubt. Dudu will leave the club after this game.
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Taranov and Kontsedalov are absent.
Kuban Krasnodar – Rogochy is absent. Petrescu has a touchline ban.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Traore, Zhirkov, and Zhusiley are absent.
Amkar Perm – No absentees.
Dinamo Moscow – No absentees.
Spartak Moscow – Kombarov, Bryzgalov, and Parshivlyuk are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United – Mentel and Lacny are absent.
Hibernian – Galbraith is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF – Friberg and Pekalski are absent.
BK Hacken Goteborg – Waris is absent.
AIK Solna – Milosevic and Majstorovic are absent.
Kalmar FF – Nouri, Gutu, and Solheim are absent.