TFT Issue 473!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Thoughts
I see two very dicey games in the Champions League tonight that don’t hold much value for me.
Why? Well, looking at the game in Rotterdam, I just don’t know which way to go. I thought Feyenoord’s pace up front (particularly from Cisse) caused Dynamo Kiev no end of problems, as expected. However, that was with Feyenoord being able to counter-attack as they were the away side. As the home side, they have to play a different game as Dynamo Kiev must surely play a lower defensive line. Feyenoord aren’t very good at doing that, though – they much prefer to use their pace. Don’t get me wrong; they’ll still find some joy here but not as much, in my view. Dynamo Kiev were a shade predictable against Feyenoord but they were also below-par in their display. The manner of them coming back into the game was beyond fortunate but the goal that won it for them was an excellent header (despite bad defending) and Dynamo then looked confident and dangerous, creating a number of further chances before the game ended. Therefore, I feel that Dynamo have more to offer here and Feyenoord’s defence is calamitous at the best of times so which way to jump? Overs interested me but that requires an early goal from Feyenoord and I’m not sure they’ll get it. Other than that, this should go under 2.5 goals but is that a wise move with a weak Feyenoord defence and a susceptible Dynamo defence? I can’t call it; don’t bet on it!
Additionally, Debreceni VSC are hosting BATE Borisov in Hungary and most people will expect them to win following their 1-1 draw in Belarus. However, don’t write off BATE Borisov as for me, they’re the better of these two sides and the result in the first leg was symptomatic of bad luck and missing players. For this game, BATE have all their regulars back from the Olympics – playmaker Renan, wide-man Baga, defender Polyakov etc. and I expect a much more predictable display from them here. The thing is that BATE are more experienced than Debreceni VSC are nowadays and they are better at keeping opponents out. The visitors may be worth a cheeky punt, in fact, but let’s wait to see the line-up first of all. Let’s face it; BATE have to win here or obtain a high-scoring draw or they’re out, which is unacceptable to them. Debreceni VSC can cause BATE some problems here but the visitors are a very dangerous side that are not to be underestimated. I quite like overs in this one but if BATE score first then they’ll sit on it and most likely hold it too. For overs to come in, Debreceni VSC would have to score first and in the first thirty minutes or so. Therefore, I see another game that has too many question marks and not enough answers.
Good luck if you’re betting on these two, guys – I wouldn’t dare without seeing the games live!
Featured game
Brazil U23 vs South Korea U23 – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Olympics Semi-Final between favourites Brazil U23 and the impressive South Korea U23.
Although the Olympics hasn’t been kind to us value-wise, I do fancy over 2.5 goals in this game today. You don’t need me to tell you about Brazil, guys – you know how good they are and how strong they squad that they’ve brought is. They’ve come here to win it and I’m going to be very surprised if they don’t manage it. They’ve got too much firepower for any side to handle and I doubt that South Korea are exceptions to that ruling, as well as they have played.
However, one area that Brazil have looked pretty awful is in defence. I expected Thiago Silva to hold things together a lot better than he has but in all honesty, Brazil have looked susceptible in all of their games thus far, right from the word “go”. They were put under pressure by Egypt in their opening game and nearly threw away a three-goal lead due to a lack of composure at the back and just plain bad defending. They did the same in their game against Belarus, conceding arguably the most free header that there has ever been in these tournaments. Since then, Brazil have played the same against Honduras and conceded two goals despite facing ten men for the majority of the game and nine men for a portion of the game. Honduras didn’t do anything spectacular – well, their first goal was certainly hit with amazing technique, I must admit! – but they pushed and pressed Brazil for the duration of the game and Brazil didn’t like it. Honduras’ second goal wasn’t amazing; it was hit with good accuracy but poor power and Brazil again conceded. I have no doubts over them progressing, one way or another, as nobody can match their firepower. However, Brazil are weak at the back and it’s a big problem for them.
Can South Korea exploit that? Pre-tournament, I’d have probably said no. I respect South Korea a lot but I wasn’t convinced that they had what it took to do well in this tournament. However, it has to be said that they’ve looked very strong throughout and every side that they’ve faced have struggled to play against them. Sides find it hard to break them down and they’re tactically astute enough to punish their opponents with swift counter-attacks. South Korea’s finishing isn’t as good as I’d like it to be for this bet but their ability to get into the right positions and their movement in the final third encourages me as I think that Brazil will have a much harder game than the bookies anticipate today.
That said, South Korea played 120 minutes of football against England before progressing on penalties where Brazil won in normal time against Honduras so Brazil are the fresher side here. South Korea’s stamina is outstanding, though – I can only commend them for their preparation for this tournament and I think that they’d rather die than give this one up easily today.
Therefore, I have to feel that this game will go over 2.5 goals today, whether it’s via South Korea causing problems for Brazil or whether it’s via Brazil turning it on and tearing apart what could potentially be a tired South Korean side. Either way, 9/10 on over 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot here, especially with all of Brazil’s games so far having gone over 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.