TFT Issue 475!
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Featured game
Slaven Koprivnica vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier between Slaven Koprivnica and Athletic Club de Bilbao in Croatia.
Slaven are not easy to face on their own turf but this Athletic side is unlike any of the others before it. At long last, the skills and desire of the Basque outfit have been fused with a talented manager that only enhances their belief, their determination, and their effectiveness.
In the first leg, we barely saw anything of Slaven, such was Athletic’s dominance. I expect more of the same here, to be honest. It ended 3-1 in favour of Athletic (despite numerous absentees) and it could have been more too. This Athletic side has a lot more of those regulars in with only Amorebieta, Ander Herrera, and “new” signing Aduriz missing from the squad. Herrera usually makes the side “tick” but with the greatest of respect to Slaven, Athletic shouldn’t miss Herrera too much here as they’re light years ahead of the Croatian outfit.
Athletic have too much pace, creativity, and skill for their hosts, in my view. However, they concede stupid goals, which is predominantly due to them defending horribly at all times. They conceded a goal in the first leg despite dominating the entire game so I’m sure you can see what I mean. Athletic have plenty of firepower, though, with Llorente likely to feature as well as wonderkid Muniain, lightning Susaeta, and back-from-the-dead Isma Lopez. Athletic are too hot to handle for any side, let alone Slaven.
The hosts have invested in their squad, though, and they’re not bad at all. I expect them to fight hard in this game and they’ll have some joy, too – I don’t remember the last time that Athletic intentionally kept a clean sheet. I think we’ll see plenty of goals in this one and frankly over 2.5 goals at 5/6 is a bargain for any Athletic game – you’ll usually find odds of around 1/2 on that outcome mid-season!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Omonia Nicosia vs Red Star Belgrade – home win at 4/5.
Odds on Omonia are nose-diving and I’m not surprised, really. Cypriot sides have troubled Serbian sides a lot over the past few years and in a very hot Cypriot venue, I don’t see that changing for Red Star here. I mean, Red Star have problems keeping sides out as it is but in this heat and with essential defender Vesivic absent and defensive partner Jovanovic a big doubt here, it’s hard to see Red Star being in this game. They’ve got pace on the counter-attack but Omonia are a very well-organised side and we saw plenty of that in the first leg. They didn’t look fazed by the Serbian giants and always play the game at their own pace. I think that they’ve got more than enough in the tank to score a goal or two here and hold it so my call is the home win at 4/5.
Verdict: Omonia Nicosia to win at 4/5.
Viktoria Plzen vs Ruch Chorzow – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
We saw a battling display from Ruch in the first leg but the Czech heavyweights won 0-2 anyway. In truth, what we saw from Ruch was probably their absolute best as they’re not really capable of producing more at this level. They’re well-organised enough to do well but they have to come to the Czech Republic to attack and that’s never a wise choice against Viktoria Plzen, who are awesome on the counter-attack. Ruch are bringing virtually a whole army with them for this game as hordes of Poles have crossed the border despite only 600 tickets having been made available to them. Therefore, Ruch should have plenty of support here. However, Viktoria Plzen have a big quality advantage and have demonstrated their excellent firepower on more than one occasion already this season. I think Viktoria Plzen have too much class and experience for their opponents and although it won’t be a stroll in the park, I think that they’re more than good enough to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6 as long as they take their chances.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Rapid Bucharest vs Heerenveen – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Romanian giants Rapid Bucharest found themselves as the favourites in The Netherlands for a number of punters who believed that Heerenveen’s players lost would hurt them far too much for them to handle Rapid. Nothing could be further from the truth, however, with Heerenveen strolling to a 4-0 win as their pace and movement caused no end of problems for Rapid. I think Rapid did fairly well in the final third with creating chances but never managed to take them and that’s a key difference that I expect to rear its ugly head here.
Heerenveen did lose important players pre-season, it’s true – that will hurt them, whatever their Eredivisie aspirations are. However, Heerenveen were not purely Dost and Narsingh. Assaidi was also excellent last season, as was the arising Croatian midfielder Duricic. I think that Heerenveen have more than enough counter-attacking ability to upset their hosts in Romania tonight. They don’t need to win this game, which certainly explains why Heerenveen are at such long odds to win this encounter. However, I think that they’ve got more than enough of what is required to actually beat Rapid as Rapid have to attack them and they’re missing a lot of players too.
Rapid miss Pancu, for starters, who is a very influential figure in their attack. They miss midfield regular Grigore, not to mention centre-back Constantin. Serbian midfielder Milisavljevic joins them on the sidelines. Motivation has to be hard for the hosts, who are now talking only about winning this game to salvage pride as qualification is all but beyond them. Sabau has not settled well in charge of Rapid with some of his tactical judgements coming into question. For me, there’s a lot of pressure on Rapid and I don’t think that they’re able to handle that. If they play to their best then they can win this game but with the above in mind, it’s hard to see them playing to their maximum.
On one hand, Rapid have pressure and are struggling whilst Heerenveen have no pressure and are blooming without it. As long as Heerenveen convert the chances that they’ll inevitably create, I don’t see them losing this one. For me, odds of 7/5 on the Dutch side winning this game with draw no bet cover could be a steal.
Verdict: Heerenveen to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo – home win at 5/6.
Simply put, Fluminense are everything that Sao Paulo should be but aren’t. Fluminense are unified under a good manager with a whole host of talented players. They can hold leads, frustrate sides, and score goals at will. Sao Paulo, on the other hand, cannot keep clean sheets, persistently change managers, and rarely take the many chances that they actually create. Odds of 5/6 on Fluminense look too easy, if that makes sense, such is the gap between the two sides! Fluminense really should be able to beat this unruly mob from their Sao Paulo if they play their usual way.
As far as absentees go, Fluminense do have a couple of defensive casualties in Anderson and Bruno Vieira, which isn’t ideal. Fluminense tend to draw strength from their ability to build from the back so hopefully that won’t unsettle them too much. Also missing are Wellington Nem and Deco from midfield although with Thiago Neves in midfield, neither of those absentees will concern me too much. Fred is in top form and will lead the line tonight, possibly alongside Rafael Sobis with striker Marcos Junior unavailable too. Fluminense have the depth to do well here, though, and they’ve got the quality in every area to make it count.
Visitors Sao Paulo miss Luis Fabiano, which means that their chances of actually converting the chances that they create are minimal. They’ve brought in Paulo Assuncao to try and stabilise their midfield and he may feature here. Indeed, that would allow Jadson to demonstrate his brilliant best so that could be an astute move for them. However, the continued absence of Lucas Moura won’t help them in penetrating what is usually a strong Fluminense defence. There are capable players in the Sao Paulo midfield but they need to be at their best to do the necessary damage and with Luis Fabiano and Lucas Moura both absent, I fail to see how Sao Paulo can produce their best here.
For me, there has to be value on Fluminense winning this game at 5/6, even with their defensive absentees.
Verdict: Fluminense to win at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Dinamo Moscow – Samedov and Voronin have left.
Lech Poznan – Wolski is a doubt.
Legia Warsaw – Gol and Radovic are big doubts.
Ruch Chorzow – Straka, Sultes, and Kikut are absent.
SV Ried – No absentees.
AIK Solna – Majstorovic and Milosevic are absent.
Kalmar FF – No absentees.
Elfsborg Boras – No absentees.
Maritimo Funchal – Olberdam is absent.
Red Star Belgrade – Kadu and Vesivic are absent. Jovanovic is a doubt.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – No news.
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Simaeys, and Koulibaly are absent.
AA Gent – Thijs, Soumahoro, Mboyo, Kola, and Boere are absent.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Mori is absent. Zamir may debutise. Fans attacked new chairman at weekend.
Hajduk Split – No absentees.
Slaven Koprivnica – Vugrinec and Gregurina are doubts.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen and Dudu are absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Pancu, Abrudan, Burca, Milisavljevic, Wallace, Grigore, and Constantin are absent.
Steaua Bucharest – Tanase is absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Cisovsky, Zeman, and Malakjan are absent.
Sparta Prague – Matejovsky and Krejci are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Rolko, Smejkal, Janicek, Stohanzl, Kulic, Chramosta, and Zahustel are absent.
Internazionale – Maicon is absent.
Dundee United – Mentel and Lacny are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro – Triguinho, Neto Berola, Danilinho, and Pierre are absent. Rever is a doubt.
Coritiba – Chico, Ayrton, Keirrison, Marcel, Sergio Manoel, Eltinho, Jackson, and Cleiton are absent. Willian is a doubt. Escudero should feature. Anderson Aquino and Rafinha have a small chance of returning.
Fluminense – Marcos Junior, Deco, Valencia, Diguinho, Bruno Vieira, Anderson, and Wellington Nem are absent. Rafael Sobis should return.
Sao Paulo – Luis Fabiano, Canete, Welington, Fabricio, Osvaldo, Lucas, and Bruno Uvini are absent. Paulo Assuncao may debutise.
Ponte Preta – Tiago Alves, Wescley, Nikao, Uendel, and Tony are absent. Edson Bastos returns.
Gremio – Fernando, Julio Cesar, Fabio Aurelio, and Bertoglio are absent. Leandro, Vilson, and Andre Lima return.
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki – Kastrati, Ranta, Pyhala, Koskinen, and Priha are absent. Rannikko has left.
KooTeePee Kotka – No news.
PK-35 Helsinki – Kabashi, Weckstrom, Oravainen, Seferi, Karki, and Raimi are absent. Gomez-Mattila is a doubt.
Hameenlinna – Hertsi and Mononen are doubts.