TFT Issue 478!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Today is just one of those days; there are so many games that interest me! You’ll find 18 tips below and I promise you that the below list is the “trimmed” list from the games I’d initially pencilled in to delve into! Let’s hope we have some luck, eh?
Featured game
Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A top of the table encounter in Belo Horizonte between Atletico Mineio and Vasco da Gama.
Both sides have played well in the current campaign although I feel that the table is a shade misleading in the sense that the sides that started the season are not the sides that we see before us now. Well, technically speaking, one of them is and one of them isn’t. Atletico Mineiro haven’t changed their personnel greatly but Vasco da Gama have and I feel that that will be quite an integral part of today’s game.
Atletico Mineiro still possess a lot of firepower in their ranks. I mean, any side with Jo and Ronaldinho in it will score goals, especially at this level. The continued absence of Danilinho isn’t ideal but it’s also not terrible either. They’re clearly not too concerned, either, having sent Andre away on loan to Santos in the past few days. Defender Leonardo Silva is a doubt today but aside from that, we’re looking at a strong Atletico Mineiro side that have already won six out of seven home games this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game. This side has impressed me in their varied ways of attacking other Serie A sides and I think that they’re in a strong position to do well here as a result.
Visitors Vasco da Gama, though – I’m a bit concerned for them. They’re still having a terrific season, don’t get me wrong. However, they’ve looked a bit lightweight in the attack department ever since Diego Souza left and have actually failed to score in two out of their last three games now. The sale of Romulo in midfield and Fagner in defence hasn’t helped, either. They’ve responded remarkably well to those sales but they’ve not scored when they’ve encountered a good side lately and the sale of both Diego Souza and Romulo are largely responsible for that, in my view. I’m curious to see how they’ll handle playing against a side that is very likely to score against them, really – I don’t know if they’ve got enough to repel Atletico Mineiro tonight.
I won’t deny that Alecsandro is a threat with the right service but I do question how much support Vasco can actually offer him. Atletico have a lot of firepower, though – I really think that they have enough to win this one. Vasco are the only Serie A side that is still unbeaten on the road but that’s largely down to their ability to keep sides out. Can they do that tonight? I don’t think so – I fancy Atletico to win at 4/5.
Verdict: Atletico Mineiro to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Fluminense vs Palmeiras – home win at 4/5.
Not much has changed for Fluminense since their last game other than the transfer of striker Rafael Moura to Internacional. The same players are out with the only important one being Deco. However, as I said with Fluminense’s last previewed game, I’m not too concerned about his absence because Thiago Neves is an exceptionally good player at this level and pulls the strings admirably for Fluminense. In Rio de Janeiro, Fluminense are very strong and have won four out of their last five home games. Star striker Fred is back and firing on all cylinders and with two consecutive wins under their belts, I fancy Fluminense to continue with their good run tonight.
Helpfully, they’re facing Palmeiras, whom I dislike. They don’t score goals and don’t interest me very much. I think they’ve got a few excellent midfielders with the likes of Valdivia in their squad but they lack a good striker and any kind of attacking plan. They’ve done quite well on the road in recent times but have still lost the majority of their away games this season. Will they manage to uphold their recent away form tonight, though? They’ll have to play bloody well and that’d have to happen without key defender Leandro Amaro, who is suspended, which makes the task even harder. Both talented playmakers – Valdivia and Daniel Carvalho – join him on the sidelines through injury and that makes the return of Joao Vitor only small consolation to Scolari and co.
Given that Fluminense are not only at home, not only the better side, but are also hosting a side that they’re better than and a side that misses three of its best players, I really fancy Fluminense to get three points at 4/5.
Verdict: Fluminense to win at 4/5.
Hajduk Split vs NK Zagreb – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
I watched Hajduk’s game in Italy earlier this week and I have to say that I was very impressed. Hajduk were a bit of a mess in the first leg, conceding stupid goals and playing like a bunch of schoolboys. However, Hajduk proved that they have a very mature side indeed by winning at the San Siro against Internazionale. I’d love to pass it off as a flukey smash-and-grab win but the fact is that Hajduk dealt with Internazionale all too easily. They scored two and they could have scored more, too. Internazionale were bad, I suppose it’s fair to say. Hajduk were amazingly good, though, and the second goal (scored by Vukovic) was nothing but pure class. Hajduk may have gone out of the UEFA Europa League on aggregate but they should bring tremendous confidence into this game as a result because they played brilliantly in Milan and recorded a result that will remembered for decades by their loyal fans. Hajduk have played well in the Prva Liga this year too, so I really fancy them to do well in this game.
I think it’s fair to say that NK Zagreb don’t like playing here. Not only have they lost their last ten visits here (in all competitions) but they’ve lost by two or more in eight of those games, conceding four goals per game for their last two Prva Liga visits here. All records are there to be broken, of course, but NK Zagreb have hardly impressed this season with three defeats from three games. Indeed, they’re yet to register a goal this season so things look very bleak for them currently. They’re a cautious side as it is but they lack in firepower too so when they’re not scoring, they either draw or end up losing. Either way, times are not good for NK Zagreb and this is far from the best time for them to make the tough trip to Split.
For me, Hajduk should win this one comfortably. Hajduk should clear the -1 Asian Handicap at evens without any great fuss, in my view.
Verdict: Hajduk Split to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Slaven Koprivnica vs Zadar – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Slaven Koprivnica also did their country proud mid-week by beating Athletic Club de Bilbao on home soil. They were disappointed to have gone out of the UEFA Europa League on aggregate but they can be very proud of their tenacious and effective display. Slaven are regarded as one of the hardest sides in Croatia to face away from home and that is perfectly true for a number of Prva Liga campaigns. Slaven have only played one home game in the current campaign but won it 3-1 against Istra 1961. Former Hajduk Split striker Busic and veteran hitman Vugrinec are both dangerous players and given the season that Rak and Delic are having, you have to fancy Slaven to record a strong result here. Zadar have lost their last nine games here and I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t be ten after today.
With Zadar, you tend to know what you’re getting. They’re dogged, well-organised, give little away, and put men behind the ball against big sides. That’s why it came as a surprise when they gave Hajduk Split an open game lately. It was a valiant move on their part, although it was also foolish as they were humbled 2-4. Zebic must be scratching his head as to what to do with his Zadar side because although they played well against Hajduk and created plenty of chances, they were still on the wrong end of a heavy scoreline. Zadar had played their usual way for their two previous games and drawn both 0-0. Zadar are a capable side, especially at home, but the trip to the Gradski whilst uncertain of which tactical approach to adopt due to strikers not taking their chances is not ideal and I think they’ll suffer as a result.
For me, there should be value in Slaven beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Verdict: Slaven Koprivnica to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Viktoria Plzen vs Zbrojovka Brno – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Viktoria played earlier this week and may carry a bit of fatigue but I doubt it, to be honest. They never had to get out of second gear to batter Ruch Chorzow to record a 7-0 aggregate victory in the UEFA Europa League and they should be in high spirits here as a result. For me, they’re by far the most dangerous attacking side in the Czech Republic right now and with only Cisovsky being a notable absentee for this game, I fully expect them to demonstrate their devastating potential. This side can and will score at will and against newly-promoted Brno, they really should be able to produce a two-goal victory at the bare minimum. All they require is the appropriate application and that should be enough. Brno have battled hard in their last two games but they’ve faced weak sides; let’s see how they do against their country’s finest. Perhaps I underestimate Brno but I expect them to be easily beaten here, hence my call of Plzen to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Brondby vs SonderjyskE – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
You’re probably all already aware of my thoughts on Brondby at this point. This side can and will concede goals against any Superligaen side and with key defender Goodson absent today, I find it impossible to envision this game ending without SonderjyskE scoring at least once. Thygesen is also missing from midfield for the hosts so they’re effectively going to have to rely solely on Krohn-Deli + their youngsters. To be fair, the pace that their youngsters bring into each game is a dangerous threat and Brondby can score goals. However, they’re going to concede a lot of goals this season because their defence is a complete mess and I don’t expect to see that change today. SonderjyskE are not a great away side but then again, you don’t need to be a great away side to score against the current Brondby side. For me, there’s value in taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
FC Lahti have looked particularly bereft of creativity and stamina of late and I can’t think of any side more capable of taking advantage of that than reigning champions HJK Helsinki. Three consecutive defeats lead FC Lahti into this game and they’ve conceded at least two goals per game along the way whilst scoring just once. Free-kick specialist Bernhardt has now left the club whilst Kari, Lansitalo, and Kemppinen both sit this one out through injury. Rafael is a doubt and that makes it very unlikely that FC Lahti won’t score here. HJK are not incredible but they’re one of the more reliable defensive sides in the Veikkausliiga so they should have things their own way today. HJK have no absentees other than Makela but with Sadik back, that really shouldn’t be a problem. HJK are arguably the strongest club in the country and Lahti are one of the weakest in the division. For me, there should be value on the away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio – home win at evens.
It’s time for me to get involved on VPS Vaasa again, guys! Jamaican hitman Morrissey has returned from his lengthy absence and he makes all the difference to their attack. They’re well-organised, hard to beat, and very hard-working, especially in Vaasa. They will battle from start to finish and few sides leave Vaasa with a credible result as a consequence of it. They’ve got a lot of pace on counter-attacks with Morrissey back in their ranks and I expect VPS to give a good account of themselves today. KuPS should be tired from their trip to Turkey, not to mention disappointed because of their 6-0 annihlation. They’ve re-signed Dudu from Honka, which gives them yet another talented attacking player when it’s defenders/leaders that they require! KuPS are capable of surprising from time to time but after such a long journey and many 3-game weeks? I’d be surprised to see it. A rejuvenated VPS should be able to win this one in simple enough fashion at evens.
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win at evens.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – over 3 goals at evens.
Goals, goals, goals. Ajax demonstrated against PSV lately that they’re utterly incompetent at the back without Vertonghen, which surprised me. They need a replacement – fast – that they simply won’t sign. Overmars has come in and won’t sign players as he wants to rely on the youth system more. Subsequently, Ajax will concede a lot of goals this season whilst also scoring a lot. AZ lost some important players pre-season but they lose important players every year and always replace them. AZ are very good like that and they are remarkably good at scoring goals without playing particularly well. AZ are vulnerable at the back, especially on the road. Bluntly, we should see goals in this one.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at evens.
Sogndal vs Rosenborg BK – away win at evens.
Rosenborg have finally realised that they’re not a great side nowadays so they’ve signed some players that will make them better than any other Norwegian side. They signed creative attacker Elyounoussi from Fredrikstad, for starters – he adds pace and skill to a slow attack. They signed big central defender Reginiussen, who is very dependable and will add organisation to their suspect back four. They’ve become a stronger side overnight and I like it. They should have enough to win this game today with that in mind. Sogndal are solid at home but only because they keep sides out. I look on Rosenborg in a new light today as I finally believe that they have enough talent in their ranks to score goals in difficult situations like this one, hence my call of the away win.
Verdict: Rosenborg BK to win at evens.
Aalesund FK vs Molde FK – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
It’s derby day in western Norway and there’s usually only one winner of this derby, wherever it’s played; Molde. Unfortunately for Aalesund, Molde are bigger and better than they’ve ever been. True enough, they were dumped out of the UEFA Champions League earlier this week by Swiss heavyweights Basel but it was so close to being otherwise! Had Magne Hoseth scored the penalty at the end of the game then we’d have seen another outcome. Molde did well in that game, for what it’s worth – they were unlucky and inexperience cost them. They’re back in Norway now, though, and they should be able to dominate as per usual. Aalesund are not an easy side to play against on their artificial turf but Molde have the firepower to ensure that they at least don’t lose this game. I would be surprised to see this one end as a home win unless Aalesund produce an immaculate and inspired display.
Verdict: Molde FK to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Tromso vs Stromsgodset – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
I won’t often oppose Tromso at home but they’ve travelled across the majority of Europe to get back for this game after a hard match in Ukraine against Metalurg Donetsk. It was a successful trip, which will boost their morale, but it’s a long way to travel. Tromso usually have the advantage of playing on artificial turf at home but that’s not an advantage today as Stromsgodset use artificial turf too. The visitors are fresh for this game and full of young, quick players. Tromso have notoriously conceded goals in the second-half of games in the past few weeks because of tiredness due to the travelling that they have to do and I think that they’re going to struggle against a very energetic and difficult Stromsgodset side. The visitors can’t defend but they can score goals here and Tromso hate coming from behind. For me, there’s value in taking the visitors with draw no bet at 6/5.
Stabaek vs Sandnes Ulf – away win with draw no bet at evens.
The hosts are weak; their opponents are underrated. Sandnes Ulf aren’t a great side but they play good attacking football with belief and pace. They lack a finisher but they’re facing a very weak Stabaek side so they should have ample chances here. Quality-wise, there’s not light years between these two sides. However, Sandnes Ulf definitely have the edge as long as they convert their chances. I can’t wait to see how Stabaek try to combat their long throws because I’ve not seen anywhere near enough organisation in their ranks for it to happen!
Verdict: Sandnes Ulf to win with draw no bet at evens.
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warsaw – Legia Warsaw to win at 4/5.
Both sides lost players pre-season but Slask lost more important players because Legia have depth and Slask have financial problems. I’ve watched Slask a few times in recent weeks and they’ve not impressed me on any occasion. They look short of ideas in the final third and short of creative players, not to mention finishers. Legia aren’t the most dependable of sides, sadly – they like to show up when they shouldn’t and not deliver when they should – but they’re a better side with better players. They did well mid-week and as long as they take their chances then they should win today at 4/5.
Verdict: Legia Warsaw to win at 4/5.
Amkar Perm’ vs Mordova Saransk – under 2 goals at 11/10.
Two sides that don’t score goals? This one really should go under 2 goals. Amkar are notoriously hard to play against at home, where they concede very few goals. They don’t offer much of a goal threat themselves, however, hence them usually battling relegation. They’re experienced campaigners, however, and no side has an easy ride in Perm. Amkar are good enough to keep newly-promoted Mordovia out and they’re experienced enough to know how vital three points are today against their relegation rivals. I think Amkar will take the win but the odds are a joke. I really fancy under 2 goals at 11/10, though – these two sides struggle to score goals at the best of times!
Verdict: Under 2 goals at 11/10.
CSKA Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
I can’t help opposing this CSKA side whenever I get chance to at the moment. They look disjointed and bereft of grit/leadership. Their defence is conceding goals far too easily and they’re not attacking with any flair. Doumbia’s proposed move abroad and Suarez’s apparent signing has confused everyone as nobody knows quite what is happening. Honda has looked good for CSKA but he’s one of the few that has of late. Too many new faces, too little experience, very predictable play, and no width are causing CSKA big problems. Anzhi are not the finished article by any stretch of the imagination but they’re a composed side with plenty of good players that can exploit an overrated CSKA side. Anzhi have the pace and creativity to break through a rather slow and cumbersome CSKA defence. This is one of the longer shots of the day as CSKA still aren’t easy to play against but Anzhi have to be worth a punt with draw no bet cover with recent displays taken into account, especailly with young Dzagoev out for the hosts and Zhirkov returning to face his former club, not to mention Boussoufa in midfield.
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Rubin Kazan’ vs Dinamo Moscow – home win at evens.
Dinamo have looked poor in all of their games lately as they seem to have lost their nerve. The old Dinamo used to be able to take the lead and hold it but this one barely looks capable of taking the lead, let alone holding it. They’re too predictable with just Kuranyi up front and with new signing Noboa missing the game against his former club, it’s hard to see where Dinamo have stepped it up a gear from last season, especially looking at who they’ve lost. Voronin wasn’t as good as Kuranyi but he worked harder and thus was very useful in the away games. Dinamo are still a decent side but Rubin look much better than them right now, playing good football in midfield and taking their chances. Rubin have just signed Rondon from Malaga so they have a good striker up front alongside battling Haedo-Valdez and with the ever-impressive Natcho, Eremenko, Ryzantsev, and Karadeniz supporting them, I can only see a good season coming for Rubin. For me, there has to be value in the home win.
Verdict: Rubin Kazan’ to win at evens.
Elfsborg Boras vs Malmo FF – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Last but not least, we look at the big game in Sweden between Elfsborg and Malmo. Elfsborg play on artificial turf, which suits them more than Malmo. However, Malmo bring a better attacking threat into this game than Elfsborg, in my view. There’s not much between them, really. Elfsborg defend better than Malmo but Malmo are playing with more consistency than Elfsborg are right now. Elfsborg lost mid-week against AC Horsens in the UEFA Europa League whereas Malmo have had a week to prepare for this game. I would hate to pick a winner between two very good sides although I must admit that I am leaning toward Malmo. However, I do like the prospect of this essential game in the Allsvenskan title race going over 2.5 goals at evens as both sides are good at goalscoring.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Simaeys, Barda, and Kumordzi are absent.
Lokeren – Copa, Ketels, and El Moutaz are absent.
AA Gent – Boere, M’boyo, Arzo, and N’Diaye are absent.
OH Leuven – Ruytinx, De Vriese, Thompson, and Vanaudenaerde are absent.
Cercle Brugge – Mertens, Hendrickx, and Rudy are absent.
Anderlecht – Cyriac, Lukaku, and Reynaldo are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro – Danilinho, Neto Berola, Triguinho are absent. Andre has left on loan to Santos. Leonardo Silva is a doubt.
Vasco da Gama – Felipe, Rodolfo, and Renato Silva are absent.
Coritiba – Rafinha, Everton Costa, Robinho, Cleiton, Jackson, Eltinho, Sergio Manoel, Marcel, Keirrison, and Anderson Aquino are absent. Emerson is a doubt.
Corinthians – Emerson is absent. Paulinho is a doubt. Danilo returns.
Internacional – Fabricio, Indio, Dagoberto, D’Alessandro, Datolo, Otavinho, Juan, and Leandro Damiao are absent. Elton and Kleber return.
Ponte Preta – Roger, Rene Junior, Tony, Wescley, and Nikao are absent. Uendel and Tiago Alves return.
Sao Paulo – Rafael Toloi, Luis Fabiano, Bruno Uvini, Canete, Welington, Fabricio, and Osvaldo are absent. Jadson is a doubt.
Gremio – Vilson, Fabio Aurelio, and Julio Cesar are absent. Fernando returns.
Fluminense – Marcos Junior, Deco, Wellington Nem, Bruno Vieira, and Anderson are absent. Valencia may return. Rafael Moura has left for Internacional.
Palmeiras – Leandro Amaro, Daniel Carvalho, Valdivia, Wesley, Roman, Mauricio Ramos, and Luan are absent. Thiago Heleno may return. Joao Vitor returns.
Portuguesa – Guilherme, Leandro Silva, and Lima are absent.
Botafogo – Mattos and Lucas Zen are absent. Amaral and Lodeiro may debutise. Marcio Azevedo and Lucas are doubts.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana – D.Iliev, T.Kostadinov, and Yanachkov are absent.
Etar – No absentees.
Pirin Gotse Delchev – No news.
Minior Pernik – Financial problems have caused delays with wages.
Lokomotiv Sofia – No news. Game played at neutral venue in Sofia.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Many players have left due to financial problems.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Zadar – Terkes is absent.
Slaven Koprivnica – No absentees.
Split – No absentees.
Dinamo Zagreb – Calello, Sammir, and Pokrivac are doubts. Kovacic and Krstanovic are doubts.
Hajduk Split – Maloca is a doubt.
NK Zagreb – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram – Tarczal is absent. Misun and Trapp are doubts.
Mlada Boleslav – Chramosta, Janicek, Kulic, Magera, Rolko, Smejkal, Stohanzl, Fabian, and Zahustel are absent. Scuk is a doubt.
Slovacko – Kordula is absent.
Sparta Prague – Krejci and Matejovsky are absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Cisovsky, Zeman, Malakjan, and Pavlik are absent. Fiilo is a doubt.
Zbrojovka Brno – Glaser is absent.
Hradec Kralove – Strnad and Klapka are doubts.
Vyoscina Jihlava – Gabriel and Gavric are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK – Kayke and N.Thomsen are absent.
AC Horsens – Retov and Aslam are absent.
Brondby – Thygesen and Goodson are absent. S.Larsen returns.
SonderjyskE – T.Hansen is absent.
FC Copenhagen – No absentees.
AGF Aarhus – Moldskred is absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti – Lansitalo, Kemppinen, Kari, Veltheim, and Hukka are absent. Rafael and Grossohmichen are doubts. Bernhardt has left.
HJK Helsinki – Makela is absent.
FC Honka Espoo – Aijala, Seferi, and Ahola are absent. Vuorinen may feature.
Haka Valkeakoski – Sanevuori, Dema, McFaul, and Pesonen are absent. Mattila returns. Hjelm, Seabrook, and Bright may debutise.
TPS Turku – Hurme and Lehtovaara are absent. Aaritalo is a doubt.
Inter Turku – Ojala, Bahne, Kauko, Parviainen are absent. Bouwman and Lehtonen return. Doedee may debutise.
VPS Vaasa – Bjork and Uimaniemi are absent. Lod may debutise. Jibrin and Morrissey return. O’Neil has left.
KuPS Kuopio – Dudu may feature.
Russian Premier League:
Amkar’ Perm – Novakovic and Kolomeitsev are absent.
Mordovia Saransk – Kontsedalov is absent.
CSKA Moscow – Necid, Rahimic, and Dzagoev are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Traore and Ahmed are absent.
Rubin Kazan’ – Valdes, Carlos Eduardo, and Bocchetti are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – Noboa and Garnet are absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Okoronkwo and Kirichenko are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Taranov is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg – Selakovic returns.
Mjallby Solvesborg – Kivuvu is absent. El-Kabir may feature. Nilsson and Radetinac are absent.
AIK Solna – No absentees.
Orebro – Hasani will debutise.
IFK Norrkoping – Frempong and Tankovic are absent.
BK Hacken Goteborg – Forsell and Ostberg are absent. Ali Khan is a doubt.
Helsingborg – Hantsveit, Lindstrom, and Wahlstedt are absent.
Kalmar FF – Solheim and Gutu are absent.
Elfsborg Boras – S.Larsson is absent.
Malmo FF – Pekalski is a doubt.