TFT Issue 48!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Argentinos Juniors vs Club Nacional de Montevideo – both sides to score at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores clash in Argentina between Argentinos Juniors and Club Nacional de Montevideo.
Argentinos Juniors won the reversal of this fixture 0-1 in Uruguay earlier this month so we can expect to see some form of revenge here from their Uruguayan opponents. It’s not like we needed any extra tension for a game between an Argentinian and a Uruguayan team but we certainly have it here so don’t be surprised to see bloodshed in this game.
Argentinos Juniors have conceded in three out of their last four games on the continent and I expect more of the same tonight. Nacional have only lost twice on Argentinian soil in their last five visits and are one of the most experienced teams on the continent in the Copa Libertadores so don’t underestimate them here.
Argentinos have failed to convince me since the departure of captain Ortigoza and it’s shown especially on the continent whereby they’ve been a bit lax in midfield. In their domestic league, Argentinos can usually hold their own quite well but on the continent they tend to need more goals to win games and that’s when they struggle. They’ve got some talented players but they do look out of their depth on the continent more often than not so I think they could struggle in this game.
Club Nacional de Montevideo had a slwo start to their domestic campaign and haven’t really started their Copa Libertadores campaign yet so this bet is taking a bit of a risk, that’s for sure. However, Carrasco still has arguably the best Uruguayan prospect still playing in Uruguay at his disposal in striker Santiago Garcia and thus in my view, they’ll always have a chance of at least scoring a goal, especially with him being supported by pacey Horacio Peralta. Nacional have scored in three out of their last four games, including a derby win at Liverpool Montevideo last match, so you can see the confidence seeping back into the Uruguayan giants and I think they’ll secretly fancy their chances tonight. Nacional have to go for it due to a dismal start to the campaign so rather than the usual tense stalemate in this type of game, I expect a fairly open affair with cards and goals a-plenty.
Of course, in the Copa Libertadores, not everything is as simple as that so do bet with caution here. However, Argentinos are not convincing at the back and nor are their opponents but with both sides being able to score goals when it suits them, I think that backing both sides to score in this game is a good bet tonight, especially when considering the intense rivalry on show.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Additional game
Leon de Huanuco vs Gremio – lay Gremio at 6/5.
Somehow, the bookies think that Gremio are worth 8/11 to win this game. I’d love to hear their reasoning behind that as I don’t agree at all!
Leon de Huanuco’s mass departure over the transfer window does concern me; of course it does. They look half the side that they were last season and are duly struggling against just about everyone. However, this is the biggest side that the hosts have ever faced; this is their cup final and they’ll be extremely motivated for this game as a result. Their major advantage is the massive height above sea level at which they play, more commonly referred to as “altitude”. You can be the best side in the world and still struggle to adapt to conditions at severe altitude, which is handy or Bolivian sides would have never won a game! For me, this is a very difficult game for Gremio to win and as much as they are the better footballing side, I don’t think it counts for as much here as the bookies say. It aids my bet that Gremio miss striker Andre Lima for this game because they’ve not been a naturally good goalscoring side for years and with star striker Jonas leaving for Valencia CF in January, I think they’re going to struggle to make it count tonight.
Approach with caution but there’s no way Gremio can earn odds of 8/11 to win this game so my call is to lay them at 6/5.
Team news – Gremio miss Andre Lima for this game.
Verdict: Lay Gremio at 6/5.
The bin
Melbourne Victory vs Jeju United – home win at 5/4.
Happy to go against Jeju United as they’re really inexperienced on the continent and it showed against Tianjin Teda. However, Victory have doubts over Kruse and they’re rubbish without him, not to mention the fact that they have a new manager, so it’s a “no bet” for me.