TFT Issue 482!
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Featured game
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Betis Balompie – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga opened between Athletic Bilbao and Real Betis.
Last season, everything was perfect for Athletic. Alright, they became tired at the end of the campaign but that was to be expected. Overall, I thought they were absolutely amazing and they rightly received accolades from across the globe for their wonderful passing game. They even signed striker Aduriz pre-season to bolster their attack so I had big expectations for them this season.
However, things started to go wrong at the end of June and have gotten worse since then. Bielsa was supposed to be leaving after falling out massively with the board. Fortunately, Athletic managed to keep him in charge, which was a timely boost. However, further complications have arise with star striker Fernando Llorente refusing to sign a new contract and asking to leave the club. Javi Martinez is reportedly on his way to Bayern Munich too and with both players having been left out of the squad for today’s game, neither player being transferred would surprise me although either leaving would bother me as an Athletic Club de Bilbao enthusiast. Bielsa will not tolerate players that fail to give 100% and their absence may well be attributed to that.
I mean, they’ve brought Isma Lopez back from the dead to aid with the hole left by Llorente’s impending departure but Athletic will miss him more than is realised. He scores all their goals from set pieces, links up play well, and causes no end of problems with his movement. Toquero brings the tenacity, Aduriz the finesse, and Isma Lopez the skill but Llorente had them all and his sale is a big problem that I don’t think Athletic can deal with. The last time they lost someone like him was Urzaiz when he retired and they very nearly got relegated not long after! Ironically, it was Aduriz who bailed them out that time, who is back in Athletic colours for the third time now.
Now, Athletic losing those two players isn’t the end of the world but it does damage them. In addition to the above, Athletic are missing Muniain, Amorebieta, Aurtenexte, and Ramalho whilst having doubts over Aduriz. That means that their back four will be more of a joke than normal with holding midfielder Gurpegi likely to be slotted into the middle of defence alongside San Jose with Iraola at right-back and winger De Marcos at left-back. Presumably, Ibai Gomez will start on the left wing and Isma Lopez will partner Toquero (or sit off him) if Aduriz is absent with Iturraspe in front of the back four, Ander Herrera supporting the front two, and Susaeta on the right wing. It’s still good enough to cause problems but it’s not as lethal as last season. This defence will concede goals against any Primera Liga side and I have my doubts over them winning this game. You have to feel that they’ll edge it in front of a passionate San Mames crowd with their amazing passing game but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Betis caused a shock here last season and maybe they will again. Basque sides play funny games against Andaluscian sides and with former Athletic youngster Benat leading the midfield for Betis in true Basque fashion, a surprise is far from off the agenda here. Rumour has it that Athletic are looking to re-sign Benat although I don’t know if there’s any truth in that rumour. Betis didn’t lose any players pre-season other than Roque Santa Cruz but managed to add pacey Costa Rican attacker Campbell, tiny Portuguese attacker Agra, and experienced centre-back Paulao to their ranks so they’re reasonably well-equipped to beat the drop again. Betis play good football and won’t come here with any fear at all, such is their style. Ruben Castro knows how to find the net as he did numerous times last season and there are some very talented attacking players so I fancy Betis to not only score in this game but cause an upset too.
Again, I won’t touch the 1×2 market here as Athletic are some awesome with their backs to the wall but are missing players whereas Betis always play very dangerous attacking football. However, I do like the odds of 5/6 on over 2.5 goals as Athletic always attract goals to them, one way or another, hence my selection.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Santos vs Corinthians – home win at 6/5.
Santos are missing defenders Gerson Magrao and Juan but I’m not too concerned as Santos just can’t defend anyway. What is important, however, is that Neymar and Ganso are both back from the Olympics and that Felipe Anderson has returned from suspension. Those three cause no end of problems for their opponents as Santos demonstrated with a recent 1-3 win at Figueirense, although that was admittedly without Felipe Anderson. This side is too good at attacking and scoring goals and I really fancy them to take three points today as a result.
I respect Corinthians but they’re not having a good campaign. They’re excellent defensively but just don’t score enough goals, hence the signing of Martinez. Unfortunately for Corinthians, the cornerstones of their defence in Alessandro and Chicao are both missing today and if Corinthians can’t defend then they’re very unlikely to get a result as they don’t score enough goals. Guerrero can feature and he’s a dangerous player but it’s just too little too late from Corinthians, in my view. On their own turf, I’ll give them their due respect but with the core of their defence missing against arguably the most dangerous attack in Brazil, I can only see one winner today and that’s Santos.
Verdict: Santos to win at 6/5.
Manchester City vs Southampton – over 3 goals at 4/5.
The bookmakers are expecting a massacre here and it’s no surprise, really. Reigning champions Manchester City have a squad that is capable of annihlating Southampton if they feel so inclined. Personally, I think that they looked a bit sluggish pre-season but managed to impress against Chelsea in the Community Shield so they should bring some confidence into this game as a result. You know where their talented players are; I very much doubt that I need to tell you about them. Southampton are finally back in the Premier League and will be keen to impress. They’re an attacking side by nature and I doubt that they’ll change their ways for this game as they concede goals too easily as it is, let alone if they sit back. Besides, they’re good at attacking and may well score here, especially if Lambert can carry over his form from last season, not to mention Uruguayan midfielder Ramirez. Southampton will come to Manchester to play football and they can do it, too. I think that they’ll take a bit of a beating, personally, but I expect them to cause problems too. Whether it comes from City battering them or whether it comes from Southampton scoring goals themselves, I think this game will go over 3 goals and it should be worth a punt at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Wigan Athletic vs Chelsea – both sides to score at 5/6.
This is a bold call as Chelsea are frankly a better team than Wigan. However, Wigan seem to have that something special that allows them to play to their absolute best against big sides and I think that they’ll do the same here.
Martinez’s team are playing for him now; that’s just how it is. You won’t always get that with players and managers but that’s where Wigan are at. I’ve been extremely impressed with the signings that he’s made pre-season, particularly the loan capture of Miyaichi from Arsenal and the devastating Ivorian forward Kone, who is extremely quick. I think Wigan have been shrewd in the market and still have their hands on Chelsea target Victor Moses so potentially we have a lot of pace in this Wigan attack, not to mention finesse with Boselli back in their ranks after a lengthy absence. Wigan shouldn’t be winning games like this but after their strange run toward the end of last season, you wouldn’t rule anything out.
Chelsea have been very busy pre-season and have signed some outstanding prospects, the most notorious of which are Hazard and Oscar. All of the players that they’ve signed look very good indeed although I would have question marks about why they all play in the same position. Anyway, that’s another story for another day. Over the years, Chelsea have had most of their joy against Wigan via Didier Drogba, who is no longer with them. Fernando Torres is a frightening striker on his day but Chelsea no longer have the luxury of attacking in different ways with Drogba no longer there to win the balls in the air, something that Torres just won’t do anywhere near as much nor as effectively. Chelsea are more than good enough to win this game but will they? I wouldn’t bank on it.
For me, there could well be value in taking both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
KI Klaksvik vs HB Torshavn – over 3.5 goals at 8/5.
Quite simply put, both of these teams are goal machines and I expect that to show on the field. I never in my life thought that we’d see KI Klaksvik competing for the Meistaradeildin title but here they are. They’ve got tremendous belief and will score goals against anyone, although their downfall of late has been conceding against everyone, most notably five against IF Fuglafjordur in their last game. KI’s last five games have all easily gone over 3.5 goals and with the title still a realistic possibility for them, I expect them to fire on all cylinders here.
HB Torshavn are the bigger and better side here but you wouldn’t know it from the league table. This is largely because HB Torshavn cannot defend and because they’re a shade temperamental. However, the fact remains that they’re one of the best attacking sides in the Faroe Islands with Mouritsen, av Flotum, Hansson, Benjaminsen, and Samuelsen, just to name a few. This is a very “samba” team and most of their games involve a lot of goals, which is precisely what I expect today.
For me, there’s value in taking over 3.5 goals at 8/5.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 8/5.
EB/Streymur vs TB Tvoroyri – lay EB/Streymur at 3/1.
It’s the long shot of the day but whether it comes in or not, it still screams value to me. TB are not as good as EB/Streymur; that’s quite simply factual on every level. However, EB/Streymur notoriously struggle against well-organised sides, particularly at home, especially as those sides tend to be very highly charged to score a result off what is probably the biggest club in the Faroe Islands nowadays. Additionally, EB/Streymur have looked really poor lately, conceding goals far too easily and not taking their chances. Times are tough at the top of the tree for EB/Streymur and this is the last game that they’d have wanted with that in mind. TB have no intention of winning games on the road; they just don’t want to lose. They’ll usually get their token goal and then defend like troopers. Without possessing many good players, the Faroe Islands’ oldest club do have a great deal of spirit and organisation and I certainly feel that the window of opportunity is there for TB to score a surprise result. For me, laying EB/Streymur at 3/1 looks very appealing today.
Verdict: Lay EB/Streymur at 3/1.
AC Oulu vs Jippo Joensuu – home win at 4/5.
The odds are nose-diving on this one and I’m not surprised. Jippo have sold their only talented attacking player in Ngueukam to FC Lahti and now will most likely not score many for the remainder of this season. They’re still a strong defensive unit but they’re travelling to face one of the more prominent sides in the Ykkonen – AC Oulu. AC Oulu are very strong at home and they’ve got the firepower to penetrate a solid Jippo defence with Zeze and Stafsula in their side. AC Oulu aren’t in the greatest vein of form but a single goal should be enough for them to win this one and they’re more than capable of getting that. For me, the home win screams value at 4/5 as long as AC Oulu turn up!
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 4/5.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Rafaela – Carniello is absent. Machin is a doubt.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – No absentees.
Velez Sarsfield – Cerro is absent.
Atletico Lanus – Leandro Diaz is absent. Silvio Romero returns. Ignacio Scocco may debutise.
Tigre – No absentees.
River Plate – No absentees.
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro – Marcos Rocha, Guilherme, and Triguinho are absent. Leonardo Silva returns whilst Neto Berola and Danilinho may also return.
Botafogo – Fellype Gabriel, Vitor Junior, Mattos, and Lucas Zen are absent. Renato is a doubt. Lodeiro, Marcio Azevedo, and Amaral return.
Coritiba – Willian Farias, Pereira, Cleiton, Demerson, Eltinho, Emerson, Everton Costa, Jackson, Keirrison, Leonardo, Manoel, and Sergio Manoel are absent.
Cruzeiro – Charles, Everton, Leo, Borges, Willian Magrao, and Victorino are absent. Marcelo Oliveira returns. Montillo and Leandro Guerreiro likely to be rested.
Gremio – Kleber, Para, Vilson, Julio Cesar, and Fabio Aurelio are absent. Marcelo Moreno and Wesley return.
Figueirense – Tulio, Jackson, and Heber are absent. Julio Cesar is a doubt. Abreu and Doriva return.
Santos – Juan, Gerson Magrao, Alison, Durval, Edu Dracena, Fucile, and Galhardo are absent. Leo, Juan, and Felipe Anderson return. Henrique is a doubt.
Corinthians – Chicao, Alessandro, Emerson, and Jorge Henrique are absent. Romarinho, Paulinho, Ramirez, and Guerrero return.
Atletico Goianiense – Joilson, Bida, Adriano Pimenta, Felipe Brisola, Rafael Cruz, and Leonardo are absent. Wesley, Eron, and Ricardo Bueno return.
Palmeiras – Henrique, Daniel Carvalho, Wesley, Luan, Maykon Leite are absent. Roman may return. Correa may debutise.
Flamengo – Ibson, Marllon, Maldonado, Airton, Thiago Madeiros, and Amaral are absent. Caceres and Gonzalez return.
Vasco da Gama – Rodolfo, Renato Silva, and Tenorio are absent. Dede and Eder Luis return.
Portuguesa – Lima and Leandro Silva are absent. Guilherme has signed for Corinthians. Luis Ricardo and Valdomiro return.
Internacional – Datolo, Dagoberto, D’Alessandro, and Otavinho are absent. Ygor, Guinazu, Damiao, and Forlan return.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Timonov is absent. Dimetriu, Mirchev, and D.Atanasov are doubts.
Litex Lovech – No absentees.
Levski Sofia – Vutov, Opuko, and Yovov are doubts.
Botev Plovdiv – No absentees.
Ludogorets – Alexandrov is a doubt.
Beroe – No absentees.
Chernomorets Burgas – Amara and Niolov are absent. D.Mladenov and Trifonov are doubts.
CSKA Sofia – Rodrigues, Tasio, Benjelloun, Venkov, Serginho, Kiriakidis, and Platini are absent. Anise returns.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb – Tomisic and Males are absent. Line-up named – Lovric, Samateh, Barbaric, Mesaric, Brucic, Mrzljak, Boras, Antolic, Brozovic, Zakaric, and Kramaric.
Hajduk Split – Maglica, Andrijasevic, and Caktas are absent. Maloca and Vukusic are doubts.
Danish Superligaen:
Esbjerg – Hansen, Drobo-Ampem, and Sorensen are absent.
AC Horsens – Nabil Aslam is absent.
AGF Aarhus – S.Larsen is absent. Sorin returns.
FC Nordsjaelland – No absentees.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari – Kronholm is absent. Kula and Peth are doubts.
TPS Turku – Hurme is absent. Lehtovaara, Lahde, Aaritalo, Okaru, and S.Makinen are doubts.
VPS Vaasa – Coundoul has left. Parikka is doubt.
Haka Valkeakoski – Robinson and Kuusijarvi are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu – Uusitalo, Ojala, Nurmos, and Hietanen are absent.
Jippo Joensuu – Eronen is absent. Ngueukam has left.
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag – Visser and Leeuwin are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Ramos, Jungschlager, and Barroillhet are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Ortiz, Moisander, Lam, and Messaoud are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Vujicevic, Belterman, and Vejinovic are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Loen and van der Velden are absent. Nuytinck and Conboy are doubts.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Sulejmani, Enoh, Boilesen, and Boerrigter are absent.
Groningen – Ajilore is absent. De Leeuw is a doubt.
Willem II – No absentees.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Wisla Krakow – Quioto, Sikorski, and Frederiksen may debutise.
GKS Belchatow – Guzman may debutise.
Legia Warsaw – Radovic and Zewlakow are absent. Zyro is a big doubt.
Zaglebie Lubin – Korzym is absent. Sobolewski is a big doubt.
Polish Liga 1:
LKS Lodz – No absentees.
Dolcan Zabki – Zapasnik has left on loan.
Miedz Legnica – Bledzewski is absent. Ptak may debutise.
Zawisza Bydgoszsz – Jankowski, Popek, and Kaczmarek are absent.
Polonia Bytom – Kulpaka is absent.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No news.
Tychy 71 – Rocki and Manka are absent. Neutral venue.
Nieciecza – Jarecki is absent.
Stomil Olsztyn – Koprucki, Leszczynski, and Remisz are absent.
Warta Poznan – No news.
Arka Gdynia – No absentees.
Bogdanka Leczna – Zuber and Renusz are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Anzhi Makhachkala – Akhmedov and Agalarov are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Danny, Kerzhakov, Semak, and Anyukov are absent.
Mordovia Saransk – Kontsedalov is absent.
CSKA Moscow – Necid, Rahimic, Doumbia, and Cauna are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – Garnet is absent.
Terek Grozny – Mguni, Ivanov, Vlasov, and Katzaev are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United – Gunning, Russell, Dillon, and Mackay-Steven are doubts.
Dundee – McBride, Riley, and Finnigan are absent.
Serbian Super Liga:
Red Star Belgrade – Milunovic is absent.
Rad Belgrade – No news.
Jagodina – No news.
OFK Belgrade – Kecojevic has left.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Llorente, J.Martinez, Amorebieta, Muniain, Aurtenexte, and Ramalho are absent. Aduriz is a doubt.
Real Betis Balompie – Mario is absent.
Real Madrid – No absentees.
Valencia CF – Canales and Banega are absent.
Barcelona – Muniesa, Abidal, Tello, Cuenca, and Thiago Alcantara are absent.
Real Sociedad – Zurutuza and I.Martinez are doubts.
Levante – Juanfran is absent.
Atletico Madrid – Juanfran is absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB – Zayatte and Doka are absent.
Besiktas JK – Ismail Koybasi and McGregor are absent.
Kayserispor – Kamil Corekci, Biseswar, and Furkan Ozcal are absent.
Bursaspor – Okan Deniz is absent.
Mersin Idmanyurdu – Nobre, Ozden, and Joseph Boum are absent.
Ordusapor – Selcuk Sahin, Onur Tuncer, and Gosso are absent.