TFT Issue 485!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Siauliai vs Zalgiris Vilnius – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the A Lyga clash between Siauliai and Zalgiris Vilnius in Lithuania.
Atypically, this division used to be profitable for the under 2.5 goals selections due to a handful of sides being able to score against any A Lyga side and hold it without any troubles. However, Siauliai have re-written that script and are scoring goals for fun, especially at home. I’d argue that they’re the best goalscoring side in Lithuania right now although it’s fair to say that Suduva possess the bigger and better names on paper. Siauliai’s huge problem this season is their inability to defend. They’ve been almost impossible to beat at home this season for the goals that they score but they don’t win anywhere near as many as they should. Rimkevicius has been lethal this season, which is in no smart part down to Cobelli. There are a lot of attacking players in this side, even at full-back, and thus it’s no surprise that all but three of their A Lyga home games this season have easily gone over 2.5 goals.
Can Zalgiris upset the apple cart? I wouldn’t rule it out as they’ve been a strong defensive side for a couple of years now. However, both Suduva and Ekranas have struggled to keep Siauliai out here in recent times and I think that Zalgiris may be dragged into an over 2.5 goals game here, whether they like it or not. Scottish forward Elliot was a good signing for them this season and there’s enough stability and experience in their team to keep other A Lyga sides out, generally speaking. However, Siauliai aren’t the average side this season; they’re a nightmare to face. Zalgiris will want to contain Siauliai but I’ve only seen one side do that effectively this season and that was Ekranas at the start of the season, back before they lost their experienced players. Zalgiris will have to be at their best to keep Siauliai out here and I just don’t think they can do it.
For me, over 2.5 goals looks well worth a flutter at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Dinamo Zagreb vs Maribor – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
I can’t help but feel that this one will be a bit like men against boys. Both are experienced European sides nowadays but Dinamo are the daddies out of the two. Maribor can’t afford to keep their good players, you see. They had their best squad a couple of years ago, most of which were eventually signed by Palermo. Maribor are good at rearing talent and they’re rarely just an easy side to face. However, they’re a shade average by their own standards at the moment and that’s shown by how easily they’ve been shipping goals. The loss of big Volas and Velikonja pre-season has severely damaged the Maribor attack and I feel that’ll show the best here with Dinamo more than capable of keeping them out. Dinamo don’t play brilliant football at this level and they’re not often convincing but they’re generally clinical and with the likes of Sammir in their side, they really shouldn’t have any problems here. Dinamo should beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens as long as they take their chances against their Slovenian neighbours.
Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
VfB Stuttgart vs Dinamo Moscow – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Dinamo are not a particularly potent side nowadays. Indeed, they’ve been pretty damn poor so far, hence them changing manager already. They just look short on confidence and their defence looks vulnerable, which is surprising as it was very solid last season. I do question how interesting Petrescu will actually be in this game as they need to prioritise the more financially rewarding Russian Premier League, especially in focusing their efforts to get away from the relegation zone. Kevin Kuranyi would love to score against his old club here, I’m sure, and he’ll have ample opportunities against a shocking Stuttgart defence. Boulahrouz and Delpierre have both moved on and although both were either bit-part players or injured a lot, it does weaken Stuttgart defensively so I expect them to concede in just about every game this season.
In attack, though, Ibisevic and Harnik are more in tune than ever and they will cause problems here. There’s plenty of pace and movement in the Stuttgart attack and it’s a rare day that they don’t score on. There’s a lot of talent in this side and their cohesion makes them all the more stronger. They’ve no ability to hold a lead nor to keep a clean sheet but they can and will score goals. Dinamo Moscow need all the help that they can get to score goals at the moment and fortuitously, I suspect that Stuttgart’s defence will give them ample opportunities because that’s simply what they do in every game.
I expect Stuttgart to dictate how this game is played, which is why I favour over 2.5 goals here. If it was played in Dinamo’s control then unders may occur but I liken Stuttgart to Athletic Bilbao nowadays; they’re a very “over 2.5 goals” side and thus I like over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Sporting Braga – Haas, Luis Alberto, Yazalde, Manoel, Eder, Cristiano, and Paulo Cesar are absent. Baiano returns.
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Solari, Gerzicich, and Tibi are absent.
Dinamo Zagreb – Krstanovic, Kovacic, and Tomacek are absent.
Udinese – Muriel is absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
TPS Turku – Lahde is a doubt.
Haka Valkeakoski – Dema and Ojanpera are absent. Robinson, C.Matrone, and Kuusijarvi return.
Polish Liga 1:
Brzesko – Smolka, Oswiecimka, and Trznadel are absent. Neutral venue in Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow – Biernat left.
Polonia Bytom – Gamla and Pokotyliuk are doubts.
Nieciecza – Jarecki, Skolorzynski, and Lipecki are absent.