TFT Issue 489!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
A quick word of warning. The Brazilian FA decided it would be hilarious to play lots of Serie A derbies on the same day. Subsequently, most of tonight’s games are intense derbies so please bet with caution!! Other than that, let’s hope today is better than yesterday!
Featured game
Valencia CF vs Deportivo La Coruna – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Valencia and Deportivo. Valencia used to have a strong record against Deportivo and I’m hopeful that they’ll start the same again this season.
I thought Valencia gave Real Madrid a decent game recently, being rather unlucky with their goal being incorrectly ruled out. They’re a bit of a funny side, Valencia, but they’re not short of talent. Jonas is finally settling down at the club and with Soldado in their ranks and battling Haedo-Valdez having joined them on loan, Valencia look to have a number of decent attacking options. That’s particularly good because previously it was just their midfield that carried them. They’ve brought in Gago from Real Madrid to solidify their midfield, incidentally, and that can only be a good thing as it gives Canales/Banega more freedom. They also brought in pacey Mexican wide-man Guardado in from today’s opponents Deportivo, which was potentially one of the bargains of the season. Valencia have been smart in the transfer market and it seems that Pellegrino knows how to motivate them so I expect a solid home display today.
Visitors Deportivo are lethal at the Riazor but away from home are a lot weaker. They managed to take three points from their opening game against Osasuna but this will be a very different test for them as Valencia possess a number of quality players that they’re going to struggle to handle. Deportivo couldn’t handle defending in the Segunda Liga so God knows how they’ll cope this time around. I actually like Deportivo quite a lot but I feel that they’re out of their depth here. Marchena and Manuel Pablo, not to mention Aythami, give Deportivo plenty of experience at the back. Aguilar is a reliable enough holding midfielder in front of them and Camunas, Valeron, and Riki all have bags of experience and ability when it comes to attacking so the core of this Deportivo side is not in doubt for me. However, their ability to produce solid displays on the road is a doubt for me. Their defence looks slow on the grounds of their opponents and they lack a certain spice/creativity in midfield if the game is too fast for Valeron, especially now that Guardado has left. To trouble Valencia at home, you have to score against them and although scoring is all that Deportivo are good at nowadays, I struggle to see how they’ll handle the pace and passing of their opponents.
For me, taking Valencia to beat the -1 Asian Handicap is a good bet at 4/5.
Verdict: Valencia CF to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
River Plate vs San Lorenzo de Almagro – home win at evens.
Well, River Plate have scored in every game since returning to the top flight of Argentinian football and have won their last two games consecutively. Think they’re happy to be back? I sure do. They look enthusiastic, tenacious, and extremely potent and thus I’ll give them the nod here. They welcome back French legend Trezeguet to partner the promising Mori up front and with the talented Lanzini offering frequent support, you have to feel that this River side has all it needs to score goals for fun. It helps that Ponzio is sat in front of the back four because he’s very reliable and that allows River to attack more freely. River’s defence is in question but it has been for ages. As an attacking side, though, they look strong this year.
San Lorenzo, however, look very weak in that department. Old Romagnoli has been carrying them now for as long as I can remember but the playmaker sits this one out, which is a big problem for San Lorenzo. The visitors do have half-decent attacking threats in Jara and Stracqualarsi but neither are clinical, really – they’re battlers with good movement. Take Romagnoli out of the equation and you have a very bland San Lorenzo attack, basically. They’re relatively sound defensively but this side is one of the weakest in Argentina right now when it comes to scoring goals, in my opinion, and that’s why I feel that they’ll struggle against a potent River Plate side.
Therefore, I find value on the home win at evens.
Verdict: River Plate to win at evens.
Racing Genk vs Zulte-Waregem – lay Racing Genk at evens.
I can appreciate that Genk are seen as the bigger and better side here but these odds are a joke. They’ve not played well this season whereas Zulte-Waregem have really impressed in every game. Genk are scoring goals when it’s required of them but they’re shipping lots of goals too. Their constant problems with their defence (either through absentees or poor defending) leads them to concede far too many times per season and this one is no exception. They’ve just come back from an unsuccessful trip to Switzerland, where they lost 2-1 at Luzern. Genk host Luzern in a few days time and their focus will almost certainly be on that game rather than this one. Taking on Zulte-Waregem without 100% focus is suicide, in my view. Genk may have the more dangerous attacking players but Zulte-Waregem have the right motivation, the right manager, and the right organisation. This side is playing really well right now and I fancy them to upset their hosts today, hence my selection of laying Genk at evens.
Verdict: Lay Racing Genk at evens.
Stoke City vs Arsenal – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
This is a bit of a bold call as we all know how good Arsenal are capable of being When they’re good, they score goals for fun and if they approach this game correctly then they’ll tear Stoke City apart and win convincingly against a side that they’re frankly a lot better than.
However, not everything is that simple in the world of football and Arsene Wenger is wise enough to know it. Facing Stoke away is a game that no side in the Premier League relishes because they have the loudest support in the division and the Stoke team is designed to stop opposing sides from playing their game whilst discouraging their opponents with physical play. Stoke can play football themselves a bit too as they possess a strong wide game but their main strength is to frustrate opponents. It usually works on Arsenal, too – they’ve lost three out of their last four games here. Arsenal are very good at what they do but it’s also one-dimensional and Stoke know how to stop them, irrespective of how difficult it can be. It’s hard for Arsenal to stop Stoke’s aerial threat too, as it goes – Stoke tend to win their home games with Arsenal. I’m not bold enough to pick a winner here as it really does depend which one of these two sides show up. However, I do like under 2.5 goals at 4/5 because both are capable of cancelling the other out either directly or indirectly due to Arsenal’s passing and Stoke’s organisation.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Liverpool vs Manchester City – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Ah, this is one game where I’d love to seal the stadium off and set it on fire…but anyway…!
Liverpool missing Agger for this game is a huge blow. He and Skrtel are essential to Liverpool’s defence and his absence causes them a problem that they simply cannot solve for this game. Rodgers does have everyone else available, however, and Liverpool tend to produce their best displays against both Manchester clubs. Indeed, it was the fact that they outplayed City on every occasion last season that put me off taking City to win this one, superior though they are. City still got the more favourable results last season but the balance of the match favoured Liverpool each time. I can’t explain it better than that, to be honest – Liverpool are simply extremely motivated to do well against both Manchester clubs at all times and especially so at Anfield. Suarez and co. have enough to trouble a shaky City defence, in my opinion, although City have unquestionably got the better squad and bring more firepower to this game, even without talismanic striker Aguero. I’d hate to pick a winner here for reasons listed above but I do like over 2.5 goals at evens as there should be goals one way or another.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs TPS Turku – away win with draw no bet at 5/6.
MyPa have been bafflingly good at home this season. I still can’t accept how well they’ve played and credit must go to boss Korkeakunnas for assembling this bunch of misfits and making them into European contenders. Still, they’re up against the real deal today in TPS Turku, who are battling for the Veikkausliiga title. They’ve won seven out of their last ten games and won 9-2 against Haka in their last match, a result so one-sided and convincing that Haka sacked manager Ristila after it. TPS have demonstrated tremendous maturity lately and their ability to hold leads is earning them a lot of points. They’ve got some very talented players and are a better side than MyPa, much moreso than the Veikkausliiga table suggests. They need to produce a composed display here to win but they’re more than capable of doing so. They know that HJK host IFK Mariehamn today and thus the opportunity is there for TPS to make up some ground. For me, they’re more than good enough to win this one and odds of 5/6 on them winning with draw no bet suits me just fine.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Willem II vs Vitesse Arnhem – away win at 11/10.
I would normally write more but this tip simply boils down to the fact that Willem II are a poor side and Vitesse Arnhem are a decent side that is well on its way to being a good side. Vitesse still have to gel their new players but they’re a top five side on paper and Willem II will be lucky to beat the drop this season. Vitesse will be the ones dominating this game and if they get that lead then they should be able to hold it against a side that they’re frankly a lot better than, hence the selection.
Verdict: Vitesse Arnhem to win at 11/10.
Dinamo Bucharest vs Petrolul Ploiesti – lay Dinamo Bucharest at 4/5.
Well, this is an interesting one, isn’t it? An overrated Dinamo Bucharest hosting Romania’s latest moneybags; Petrolul. Dinamo have their attention on their two-game battle with Metalist Kharkiv of Ukraine, the first of which they lost 0-2 at home a few days ago. Petrolul are focusing entirely on the Liga, however, and they’re good enough to do well in it this year. They signed a lot of top players and as long as they continue to gel then they should have a successful season. Tucudean and Alexe carry threats but this Dinamo side is deceptively average. Dinamo also have big doubts over Luchin at the back, which would damage them irreperably if he was to miss this one. Well, that said, Dinamo are pretty awful at the back anyway – Petrolul shouldn’t struggle there. In all seriousness, as long as Petrolul take their chances and remain composed then they should not only manage to avoid being beaten here but should even win the game. For me, there’s plenty of value in laying Dinamo at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Bucharest at 4/5.
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I rate Elfsborg as the better side here but this is a very difficult game for them. It’s being played on natural turf, which they don’t like, and they’re struggling attack-wise with Nilsson, Hiljemark, and Claesson absent. The latter two can be replaced as Elfsborg have a strong midfield but they’ll miss Nilsson up front. It requires a good game from Elm for Elfsborg to do well in this game and they also have to battle Hacken, which is never easy. Hacken have a lot of physically strong and quick players in their ranks and that is one of the few approaches that Elfsborg don’t handle well. Waris and Makondele are real handfuls and although Elfsborg need the points, I’m not so sure that they’ll get them today. There are too many ifs and buts in regard to who actually wins this fascinating encounter but taking over 2.5 goals appeals to me with firepower on the pitch and motivation at a high.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Besiktas JK vs Galatasaray – away win at 6/5.
I would never wade heavily into derby betting for obvious problems but I really, really like the look of Galatasaray today. Besiktas’ financial problems meant that a number of stars left their club pre-season and those that remain all want to leave, namely Almeida, Quaresma, and Fernandes. At their core, Besiktas are rather average and they need their stars to function. I don’t doubt that they’ll be highly charged for their fanatic fans in this derby but they’re horribly short on quality whilst their bitter rivals have plenty of it. In Yilmaz and Bulut they have the deadliest attack in the country and as long as they’re more composed in this one than they were against Kasimpasa then they really should be able to win this one. Galatasaray have a nasty habit of conceding silly goals (don’t all Turkish sides barring Eskisehirspor?!) but they’re good at keeping the ball and creating chances. Galatasaray should eclipse Besiktas in terms of their ability to score goals here and as long as they don’t have any men sent off too early then they should win this one at 6/5.
Verdict: Galatasaray to win at 6/5.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
River Plate – Trezeguet retuns.
San Lorenzo de Almagro – Romagnoli is absent. Voboril is a doubt.
Atletico Rafaela – Carniello is absent. Machin is a doubt.
Quilmes – No absentees.
Belgrano de Cordoba – Claudio Perez is absent. Aquino is a doubt.
Newell’s Old Boys – Victor Lopez is absent. Maxi Rodriguez is a doubt.
Atletico Lanus – Regueiro is absent. Romero is a doubt.
Racing Club Avellaneda – Saja is absent.
San Martin de San Juan – Grabinski and Alvarez are absent. Suarez is a doubt.
Velez Sarsfield – Canteros has been sold.
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo – Antonio Carlos, Rafael Marques, Fellype Gabriel, Lucas Zen, and Mattos are absent.
Flamengo – Renato Abreu, Amaral, Airton, and Maldonado are absent. Ibson and Marllon return.
Corinthians – Jorge Henrique, Guerrero are absent. Emerson, Alessandro, and Chicao return.
Sao Paulo – Cortez, Canete, and Fabricio are absent. Rhodolfo, Luis Fabiano, and Osvaldo return.
Figueirense – Julio Cesar, Volpi, Heber are absent. Guilherme Santos is a doubt. Anderson Conceicao has left. Boss Helio dos Santos has been fired. Tulio and Jackson return.
Coritiba – Cleiton, Keirrison, Jackson, Eltinho, Marcel, Leonardo, Demerson, Sergio Manoel, Emerson, and Everton Costa are absent. Roberto and Lucas Mendes are doubts. Willian Farias, Pereira, and Marcel are doubts.
Internacional – Otavinho and D’Alessandro are absent. Elton is a doubt. Dagoberto and Datolo return.
Gremio – Vilson, Fabio Aurelio, and Julio Cesar are absent. Marcelo Moreno is a doubt. Para and Kleber return.
Bahia – Helder, Diones, Mancini, Kleberson, Elias, Avine, and Coelho are absent. Ze Roberto and Jeferson return.
Atletico Goianiense – Bida, Leonardo, Rafael Cruz, Felipe Brisola, and Adriano Pimenta are absent. Joilson returns.
Cruzeiro – Souza, Wellington Paulista, Victorino, William Magrao, and Alex Silva are absent. Charles, Everton, Leo, Guerreiro, and Montillo return. Borges and Ceara are doubts.
Atletico Mineiro – Escudero and Triguinho are absent. Guilherme and Marcos Rocha return.
Sport Recife – Reinaldo, Tobi, Bruno Aguiar, and Ailson are absent. Moacir returns.
Nautico – Marlon, Ramirez, and Rogerio are absent. Ronaldo Alves, Souza, and Kieza return.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Plovdiv – No absentees.
Chernomorets Burgas – Dimov, Nikolov, R.Trifonov, Baldzhiyski are absent. Dyankov and Gael are doubts.
Lokomotiv Sofia – Galev returns.
Botev Vratsa – No news.
Beroe – Elias da Silva is absent.
Etar – K.Trifonov is a doubt.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split – Vukusic has left. Maglica is a doubt.
Osijek – Vrgoc and Perosevic are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice – Javorek is absent. Hanzlik, Rydel, and Lengyel are doubts.
Slovan Liberec – Blazek, Rabusic, Delarge, and Stajner are absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Zeman and Kolar are absent. Malakjan and Cisovsky are doubts.
Mlada Boleslav – Scuk, Sirl, Smejkal, Rolko, Janicek, and Chramosta are absent. Opiela, Zahustel, and Fabian are doubts.
Hradec Kralove – Malinsky is absent. Klapka is a doubt.
Banik Ostrava – Sverkos and Gregus are absent. Bucek is a doubt.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Diallo, Parviainen, Bahne, and Antunez are absent. Ojala returns.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Banner, DeFreitas, and Wargh are absent. Kronholm returns.
HJK Helsinki – No news.
IFK Mariehamn – No news.
KuPS Kuopio – Joenmaki returns. Holopainen and Ilo are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – van Gelderen and Wusu are absent.
MyPa Anjalankoski – No news.
TPS Turku – No news.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC – Farkas, Mate, and Bouadla are absent.
No news on the other teams.
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar – Lam, Lewis, Ortiz, and Messouad are absent.
Heerenveen – Kum is absent. Raitala and Amoah are doubts.
NEC Nijmegen – van der Velden is absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendla is absent. Chadli and Braamhaar are doubts.
Willem II – No absentees.
Vitesse Arnhem – Room and van der Struijk are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Vujicevic, Schenkeveld, Belterman, Vejinovic are absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Mathijsen, Tevreden, Goossens, and de Vrij are absent.
Groningen – Ajilore is absent.
PSV Eindhoven – No absentees.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Haugesund – Haraldseid, Nilsen, Fevang, and Andreassen are absent.
Stabaek – Aase, Sayouba, and Stengel are absent.
Honefoss – No absentees.
Tromso – Nystrom and Frantzen are absent. Norbye is a doubt.
Molde FK – Ekpo and Gatt are absent. Hovland, Rindaroy, and Eikrem are doubts.
Valerenga Oslo – Kone and Ogude are absent.
Sandnes Ulf – Bo Andersen, Westlye, U.Andersen, and Raskaj are absent. Frejd returns.
Sogndal – Roed, Rudolfsen, and Brochmann are absent.
Rosenborg BK – Braathen is absent. Iversen is a doubt.
Viking Stavanger – Berisha is absent. Ingelsten is a doubt.
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Bodo Glimt – Stensland is absent.
Hamarkamaratene – Ronningen and Nedrebo are absent.
Alta – Ngom and Erlandsen are absent. Overvik is a doubt.
Sandefjord – Gabrielsen and Royrane are absent.
Baerum – Lundemo, Finstad, and Sanne are absent. Shaswari returns.
Hodd – Ahmed, Heltne, Kleppe, and Helland are absent.
Kongsvinger – Johansen is absent. Dosso and Solum are doubts.
Mjondalen – Fossum, Stokke, Ronningene, Bernstein, Strange, and Boldt are absent.
Notodden – Dale is absent.
Ullensaker/Kisa – Dos Santos is absent.
Ranheim – Stilson, Reginiussen, and Ronning are absent. Krakmo is a doubt.
Bryne – Larsen, Midtsian, Stenersen, and Nyborg are absent. Ertzeid, Landro, and Fernandes are doubts.
Sarpsborg 08 – Baigorri and Elyounoussi are absent.
Strommen – Nordheim, Amundsen, Figved, and Burgt are absent.
Start Kristiansand – Tveit, Madsen, Tronstad, and Andersen are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw – Mila, Gikiewicz, Gilkewicz, Mraz, Pawelec, and Stevanovic are absent. Cetnarski is a doubt.
Korona Kielce – Korzym is absent. Bodzioch and Szekely are doubts.
GKS Belchatow – Nowak is absent. Lacic and Mak are doubts. Kosowski returns.
Legia Warsaw – Salinas may debutise.
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza – Lipecki, Biskup, Jarecki, and Skolorzynski are absent.
Miedz Legnica – Starosta has left. Lobodzinski may debutise. Nowacki returns. Bledzewski is a doubt.
Kolejarz Stroze – No news.
Arka Gdynia – No absentees.
Polonia Bytom – Sinclair is a doubt.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Kalisz is absent. Internal conflicts at the clubs.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Setubal – Cristiano is absent. Lourenco and Jose Pedro return.
SL Benfica – Hugo Vieira has left.
Moreirense – Tales, Castro, Andre Luiz, Ferreira, and Julio Cesar are absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Keita, Diego Barcellos, Oliver, Kim, Garcia, and Edgar Costa are absent. Moreira debutises.
Maritimo Funchal – Olberdam is absent.
Gil Vicente – Murta, Djalma, Elisio, Sandro, Rui Faria, Yero, Luan Scarpolan, Eder, and Arantes are absent. Ramazotti, Pio, and Amaral debutise.
Estoril – Vagner, Tiago Gomes, and Joao Pedro are absent.
Pacos de Ferreira – Nuno Santos and Angulo are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Dinamo Bucharest – Galcev and Stratila are absent. Luchin is a big doubt.
Petrolul Ploiesti – Cojocnean and Hamutovski have left.
CSMS Iasi – Nalati and Gado are absent.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Mingote and Cojoc are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – McGinn is absent. Hughes is a doubt.
Hearts – Templeton is absent. Grainger and Zaliukas are doubts.
Motherwell – Ramsden and Saunders are absent. Lots of doubts but no names mentioned.
St.Mirren – McGregor is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna – No absentees.
Barcelona – Cuenca, Abidal, Thiago Alcantara, and Muniesa are absent.
Getafe – Pedro Leon is absent.
Real Madrid – No absentees.
Granada – Mainz, Rico, Yebda, and Benitez are absent.
Sevilla CF – Maduro and Perotti are absent.
Valencia CF – Banega and Canales are absent.
Deportivo La Coruna – Salomao, Ze Castro, and Laure are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg – Forsell is absent.
Elfsborg Boras – Claesson, Nilsson, and Hiljemark are absent. Jawo is a doubt.
Kalmar FF – No news.
IFK Goteborg – Barkroth is absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK – McGregor, Kavlak, and Fernandes are doubts. Quaresma, Koybasi, and Almeida are absent.
Galatasaray – Baytar is absent.
Bursaspor – Aslantas and Aziz are absent.
Istanbul BB – Zayatte and Doka are absent.
Trabzonspor – No absentees.
Elazigspor – Zorlu and Bayrak are absent.