TFT Issue 490!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club de Bilbao.
Atletico Madrid stabilised a lot under Diego Simeone last season, which was pure irony in itself. However, they do look a strong outfit, in all seriousness, and I think we’ll see more of a legitimate title challenge from them this season although it’s pretty much guaranteed that they’ll finish behind Real Madrid, Barcelona, and most probably Valencia CF too.
Atletico Madrid have solved problem one immediately; Radamel Falcao. He’s a natural-born goalscorer, of which very few remain. The Colombian hitman will score whenever he is given the opportunity and that aids Atletico Madrid massively. Additionally, Adrian Lopez has emerged a lot over the past twelve months and those two combined score plenty of goals for Atletico Madrid. Simeone has implemented a rather set midfield four behind them this season of Turan, Rodriguez, Raul Garcia, and Tiago, which impresses me a lot. There’s plenty of experience in this midfield, which is important. Raul Garcia and Tiago are both box-to-box midfielders with plenty of energy. Neither are especially creative and that’s because Atletico Madrid play a wide game. With the skill of Arda Turan and the raw pace of Cristian Rodriguez in their squad, it’s really no surprise that they’ve opted to play a wider game. Defensively, Atletico Madrid have improved a lot (by their standards) and with Godin holding the centre of their defence together, I do like the look of this Atletico Madrid squad a lot. It should also be noted that they’ve signed Emre from Fenerbahce to aid their ball possession and creativity in central midfield as an adept “Plan B”, if required.
Now, as you all know, I do love Athletic Club de Bilbao. However, the more I see them, the more I fear for them this season. Bielsa will never stop them playing their entertaining attacking football and I commend him for that. It can be foolish, though, and this season it’s proven to be so on more occasions than it should. Defensively speaking, Athletic look worse than ever and it’s causing them tremendous problems. I very much doubt it’s the absence of Bayern Munich-bound Javi Martinez, who is excellent at distributing from the back but isn’t a natural centre-back. I would attribute it more to the absenc of Amorebieta and even Ekiza from the centre of defence as they’re both natural centre-backs along with San Jose. Instead, Bielsa appears content to slip holding midfielder Gurpegi into defence, which isn’t ideal as he’s rash and temperamental, which sometimes outweighs his unquestionable committment to the cause. Bielsa is also dropping new players into left-back, namely holding midfielder Inigo Perez, which is just ridiculous. Athletic are essentially only using two actual defenders and that’s a problem because keeping the ball without Martinez isn’t as easy as it was. Additionally, the continued absence of Juventus-bound Llorente leaves Athletic without a proper target man. Isma Lopez has looked very good on his return to the first-team and Aritz Aduriz needs no introduction to Athletic fans as it’s his third stint with the club. He’s a good finisher, too – he was a great addition to this squad until it turned out that Llorente would most likely be moving on. Athletic still have their dynamic threesome in Ander Herrera, Iker Muniain, and Markel Susaeta, all three of which cause midfields everywhere lots of problems for varying reasons. Therefore, I will never write Athletic off entirely because their belief, energy, and attacking quality are all quite excellent. I would question Athletic’s lack of a “Plan B” without Llorente and their atrocious attempts at defending, though, and I feel that will derail their season ultimately.
As far as resting players here goes, I very much doubt that Bielsa will do that. He’s notorious for his “no rotation unless necessary” policy and did it a lot last season, hence Bilbao collapsing at the end of the season. Additionally, Athletic lead 6-0 from the home leg; they’re in no danger of crashing out of the competition in the return leg in Finland later this week. However, they’re facing a very accomplished Atletico Madrid side today and I think that they’ll struggle with Atletico Madrid’s tactical supremacy today, not to mention the movement of their strikers.
Therefore, I really feel that we’ll see a lot of goals today. I’m surprised to see the odds as generous as they are, in all honesty. I know Simeone likes to grind out his wins with clean sheets but even so – he’s got two lethal strikers against a makeshift defence and his opponents score goals for fun. I would be more interested in taking Atletico Madrid -1 AH if I thought Athletic would definitely not score but I can’t say that for sure. I’m going to be surprised if these two sides don’t produce goals between them, though, which is why I’ve opted for over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Universitatea Cluj vs FC Brasov – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Despite the pre-season decimation that Universitatea Cluj’s squad had to deal with, they’ve actually come out of it looking ok. I won’t go overboard but I expected a lot less from them, based on what they have left. Truth be told, they’ve given a good game to sides that are either on their level or below them and have only suffered against sides that are better or better organised than they are. It’ll be interesting to see how they cope without regular defender Mendy today, especially with fellow defender Gheorghe on the sidelines too. Brazilian midfielder Alex is also missing for today’s game, which is a problem, especially for a side with little depth.
So why take Universitatea Cluj here? Well, sometimes there are teams in worse positions than others and that’s definitely the case for Brasov today. Three of their usual back four – F.Lazar, Ionescu, and Velayos – all sit this one out, as do midfielders Olariu, Tames, and Bruno Madeira. On top of that, striker Buga is out too, just to rub salt in the wound. Buga has bagged four in four for Brasov this season and you have to wonder who will score the goals for Brasov in his absence. Three regular midfielders are out, which affect Brasov supporting their strikers and preventing their defence from taking a beating. On top of that, their defence is weak as it is but with three regulars out, you just can’t see how they’ll cope today.
Universitatea Cluj aren’t great but their opponents have been absolutely annihlated by injuries so as far as I’m concerned, taking 4/5 on the home win with draw no bet cover has to represent some value.
Verdict: Universitatea Cluj to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Is it time to jump on the Malmo bandwagon again? I think so. After all, they’re much, much better on natural turf than on the shitty artificial turf, especially the one at Boras!
At home, Malmo have an almost flawless record and there’s a good reason for that; they’re extremely good on their own turf. They’re used to knocking the ball around on their bowling green pitch, which most other Swedish sides can’t boast. I would compare it to the situation that Shakhtar Donetsk have in Ukraine as their pitch benefits them in exactly the same way as Malmo’s does. Malmo have an awful lot of firepower in their side, arguably the most in the whole of the Allsvenskan and it tends to show here. Sure, Durmaz has moved on but Malmo are fine without him for most games and this really should be one of them. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and have only conceded one goal at home all season long. Their defensive record is quite amusing to me, to be honest, because their defending is terrifying at the best of times. I guess that itself shows you how good Malmo are at attacking as most away sides simply don’t have enough of the ball to test Malmo’s shaky backline. I expect business as usual here for Malmo, irrespective of their 4-1 drubbing at league leaders Elfsborg Boras. Elfsborg Boras were crushed 4-2 by BK Hacken Goteborg yesterday and that has to boost Malmo’s morale. That’s all they could be potentially missing here as their quality is undeniable.
I respect GIF Sundsvall a lot as they play better football than they’re given credit for. They’re a close-knit bunch and will punish sides that underestimate them, just as their away record this season indicates. However, as flattering as it is, I do think that they’ve managed to avoid most of the harder away games that the Allsvenskan offers with Helsingborg, Elfsborg Boras, and today’s hosts Malmo FF yet to come. GIF Sundsvall tend to do well on the road because they keep the ball well. When playing at Malmo, your primary concern has to be winning the ball back from them and I don’t see enough strength in the GIF Sundsvall side to allow that to happen. GIF Sundsvall have plenty of pace on the counter-attack and they may score but if Malmo are in the mood then they really should score two or three goals in this game, especially with motivation at an absolute maximum.
For me, the -1.5 handicap is worth a flutter at evens.
Verdict: Malmo FF to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Atvidaberg vs IFK Norrkoping – home win at evens.
Alright, let’s not approach this one stupidly, gents – this is a derby. It’s not the biggest derby in Allsvenskan history but it’s a derby nonetheless.
So – who does this game matter to? Both sides are relatively assured that they’ll be playing Allsvenskan football next season so they’ll both be quite chuffed with that. To me, the side that will want to succeed more here is Atvidaberg and that’s for two reasons. The first is that they’re naturally very highly charged as a team and I don’t see that stopping now. The second is that this is the last game for heroic striker Eriksson as he’s moving elsewhere and I’m sure they’ll want to give him all the opportunities that they can for him to score today.
As far as turf goes, there’s no real advantage here as both sides have plastic pitches. There’s not a massive amount between the two quality-wise either. However, IFK Norrkoping lost Ajdarevic a few weeks ago and that has led them to drawing more games than usual, some of which they should really have won. His absence robs them of a set piece specialist and a creator. IFK Norrkoping have looked a bit leggy of late whilst Atvidaberg look very enthused (as per usual) and I think the two clashing may well leave Atvidaberg as the happier side. I would ask you to bear in mind that Atvidaberg can’t defend so they may well concede in this game but Atvidaberg bring much more firepower into this encounter and I think they’ll outscore IFK Norrkoping, whichever way the game is played.
I expect a feisty encounter today, whatever the outcome. I do like odds of evens on Atvidaberg beating IFK Norrkoping, though – I think the hosts have too much firepower for their opponents to handle.
Verdict: Atvidaberg to win at evens.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata – Zapata is absent. Gonzalez is a doubt.
Colon de Santa Fe – Ramirez and Luque are doubts.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec – No absentees.
Sparta Prague – Krejci is absent.
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens – Kryger, Retov, Mehl, and A.Andersen return.
AGF Aarhus – Moldskred returns.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Tammilehto is a doubt.
VPS Vaasa – Woodbine is absent. Parikka, Fowler, and Bjork are doubts.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Peretz is absent. Carlos Garcia and Strul are doubts.
Maccabi Haifa – Amasha is absent. Vered is a doubt.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Fredrikstad – Dure, Valencia, and Holm are absent. Landgren is a doubt.
Aalesund FK – O.Larsen, Phillips, and Sellami are absent. Stewart and Ulvestad are doubts.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Pogon Szczecin – Budka is absent. Noll returns.
Lechia Gdansk – No absentees.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Izmailov, Rinaudo, and Schaars are absent.
Rio Ave – Tope and Rafa are absent. Jeferson and Vitor Gomes return. Oblak debutises.
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – Lucas Garcia is absent.
Viitorul Constanta – Tosca, Larie, and Dica are absent.
Universitatea Cluj – Mendy, Alex, and V.Gheorghe are absent. Firtulescu has left.
FC Brasov – Velayos, F.Lazar, Ionescu, Olariu, Bruno Madeira, and Buga are absent.
Vaslui –
Steaua Bucharest –
Russian Premier League:
Kuban’ Krasnodar – Lolo is absent.
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – Salugin is absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF – No absentees.
GIF Sundsvall – No news.
Atvidabergs – No news. Ericsson’s last game.
IFK Norrkoping – No absentees.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.
Syrianska Sodertalje – Chanko is absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor – No absentees.
Kayserispor – Ozcal is a doubt.