TFT Issue 491!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Approach all games today with caution, everyone. Second legs are the hardest to call and I think that’s especially true today with the majority of the better sides being the away sides.
Featured game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs BATE Borisov – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier between Ironi Kiryat Shmona and BATE Borisov in Israel. The first leg ended 2-0 in favour of the Belarusian visitors so the Israeli newcomers are very much up against it today.
I’ve been impressed with Ironi Kiryat in Europe this season, as it goes. I think that they keep the ball well and are more dangerous than they’re perceived to be. That said, I do think that they’re out of their depth against a very experienced opponent in BATE Borisov. Ironi Kiryat had Matovic sent off in the first leg and he’ll subsequently miss this game, which is a blow as Tibi is still out of the side too, which robs Ironi Kiryat of two of their back four. With Solari and Gerzicich both still out too, Ironi Kiryat are running short of players as this isn’t a particularly big squad to begin with. Their task hasn’t been made any easier today with the game venue being moved to Ramat Gan, which is twice as far as Haifa for this rather low-key and unsupported team. The club has promised free transportation for fans but it doesn’t change the fact that they’re in for a very tough game here.
There simply isn’t a position that BATE Borisov like better than being in the lead, to be blunt. They’re very good at holding leads and I think that they’ll do that perfectly well here. They went to Hungary to take on Debreceni VSC in the last round and despite drawing 1-1 in Belarus in the first leg, the Belarusian champions went out and won 0-2 without batting an eyelid. This side has a number of talented players throughout their squad, not least with Renan in midfield and Rodionov in attack; well, when Rodionov is fit, that is. There are other arising stars in this team and they’re very adept at keeping their opponents out either via strong organisation, a physical approach, or short passing. BATE have been in Europe for a long time now and they know precisely how to approach this game. Really, it’s only the heavyweights of European football that tend to be able to beat them without much fuss so I think BATE will progress here, one way or another.
I was thinking of taking under 2 goals at 6/5 but I’ve heard that Ironi Kiryat will be fielding a 4-3-3 for obvious reasons and with half of their defence missing for this game, you have to feel that there’ll be goals one way or another. Still, I have the utmost faith in BATE’s functionality as a unit and their ability to win games without playing well so for me, the value has to be in taking BATE with draw no bet cover at 11/10.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Additional games
Maribor vs Dinamo Zagreb – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
I watched the first leg of this game in Croatia and it was precisely what you’d expect, really. Dinamo dominated without needing to impress to score their goals and Maribor working very hard to keep up with them. Maribor arguably deserved the goal that they stole but Dinamo are not fazed in Europe nowadays due to their years of experience and their talented players. Dinamo are just one of those sides, really – they win without playing well. Away from home, they tend to be a lot more compact defensively and I think that they’ll “do a job” on Maribor, basically. Dinamo are sound enough at the back to halt the Slovenians and they’re more than good enoungh on the counter-attack to make it count at the other end, especially if Brazil’s Sammir is in the mood. Dinamo have sold one of their other playmakers – Badelj – in the past few days but Hamburger SV have allowed him to play in this game, which is his final game for Dinamo and I’m sure he’ll be keen to leave his mark on the club that raised him. Either way, Maribor’s best squad is gone (most of which are in Italy!) nowadays and I think they’re a shade short of where they need to be to be playing European football, especially having sold their best two strikers of last season. For me, Dinamo should have enough in the tank to win this one and I’d be surprised to see them lose it so taking Dinamo with draw no bet has some value for me at 4/5.
Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Anderlecht vs AEL Limassol – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
The betting masses don’t seem to think that this one will win and maybe they’re right; these are tough fixtures, after all.
However, I do like this one an awful lot. Anderlecht are a very strong attacking side, especially at a packed Vanden Stock. Their defence is shaky; no question. That’s why the Asian Handicap is always the best way to handicap Anderlecht. Their firepower is exceptional, though. The only played that is supposedly exiting Anderlecht in the near future is Argentinian playmaker Biglia but try as his agent might, he just can’t get him a deal elsewhere. Suarez is supposedly on his way to CSKA Moscow but the last I heard is that the move had collapsed so I’m in the dark there. Either way, Anderlecht still possess an excellent striker in Mbokani, who scored a beauty of a strike in Cyprus in the first leg. Jovanovic is suspended for not being able to keep his gob shut in the first leg but van der Brom has plenty of faith in Kanu and Iakovenko so it’s not a great concern for me. I was actually really impressed with Kanu in the first leg – his strength and passing have really improved. Keep in mind that the likes of Veselinovic, Chavarria (both of which impressed at Kortrijk last season) and new signing Cyriac are standing by so this really is a strong Anderlecht side. Fernando Canesin’s pace and trickery on the flanks has won him many admiring glances over the past few months and Gillet’s composure is well-known. It’s nice to finally see Vargas actually playing for Anderlecht too, after his lengthy spell on the sidelines. Again, Anderlecht’s defence is shoddy but they’ve got enough of a spark to penetrate a strong AEL Limassol defence and I think the game will then open up and Anderlecht will hopefully score some more goals!
Cypriot football is definitely on the rise, though. Let’s not underestimate that fact. It’s not a coincidence that Anorthosis Famagusta and APOEL Nicosia have both reached the group stages of the UEFA Champions League over the last few years and AEL Limassol may be the next side to throw their hat into the ring. Unlike the afore-mentioned, AEL Limassol do not specialise in scoring goals but specialise more in keeping other sides out. Additionally, AEL Limassol have kept the same squad as last season so they have a large amount of cohesion, which is always dangerous. It may not be the best Partizan Belgrade side I’ve ever seen but they failed to score in either game against AEL Limassol and that’s worth keeping in mind. However, AEL Limassol’s tactical approach took a hefty blow in the first leg when Mbokani produced that bit of magic and scored a crucial away goal. AEL Limassol won the game, admittedly, but they now need to keep Anderlecht out in Belgium and I just don’t think that they can do it. I envision a scenario whereby Anderlecht score the opening goal and AEL Limassol have to push out and attack them, which is when Anderlecht should punish them as they’re vulnerable then.
Needless to say that this game has risk to it. For example, if AEL Limassol capitalise on shoddy Anderlecht defending and score the opening goal then it’ll take a magical Anderlecht display for this tip to win. However, I don’t expect this tip to lose as I expect Anderlecht to score the first goal in this game and I think they’ll win the game, irrespective of the outcome. Let’s face it; Anderlecht need to win this game or they’re out. All in all, the above leads me to believe that Anderlecht can beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6 today.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Matovic, Solari, Tibi, and Gerzicich are absent. Neutral venue – Ramat Gan.
Malaga – Baptista is absent.
Udinese – Barreto and Ighalo are absent. Pinzi is a doubt.
Dinamo Zagreb – Kovacic is absent. Krstanovic returns. Badelj’s last game.
Anderlecht – Jovanovic is absent.
Sporting Braga – Yazalde, Haas, Luis Alberto are absent. Barbosa, Paulo Cesar, and Eder are doubts.