TFT Issue 493!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Even more caution is required for UEFA Europa League betting, guys – it’s a nightmare a lot of the time!
Featured game
CSKA Moscow vs AIK Solna – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between CSKA Moscow and AIK Solna in Russia. CSKA won the first leg 0-1 in Sweden so they’re in pole position here.
I’m not a massive fan of CSKA Moscow nowadays as I feel that they’re pretty heavily overrated. However, they’ve looked bloody strong lately now that Honda appears to be happy to be playing for them again. CSKA are building their play around him again, which is smart as he’s arguably their best player, and they look much better for it. Four consecutive wins lead them into this game and they’ve not conceded in any of those games. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Alexey Berzeutskiy has returned to fitness and played in their last two games, either. Alongside his brother, Ignashevich, and Akinfeev, CSKA have a very solid defence – even Schennikov is starting to fit in properly.
In the past, defence was the massive strength of CSKA Moscow. It still is nowadays but to be truthful, it’s all that has kept them going over the past few years. This year, though, they’ve finally revamped their team and it looks fresher and more exciting. They’ve brought in midfield battleaxe Wernbloom to gradually replace Rahimic, which is smart. They’ve brought in Rasmus Elm to add the creativity that Dzagoev just doesn’t have, which is smart. Tosic’s set pieces are deadly, Honda’s passing and shots from range are lethal, and Gonzalez’s pace is lethal (when he can be bothered adding more features to his game). The pace and promise of Musa alongside the powerful frame of Doumbia makes the CSKA attack look good and all in all, this side is gradually beginning to resemble a legitimate title-challenging side once again. CSKA totally outplayed AIK in the first leg, in my view, but failed to take their chances. If they take their chances tonight then I expect them to clear the handicap.
I often criticise AIK Solna but their signings of late have been excellent. They’ve brought the pace and skill of Goitom back to Sweden and have even loaned Bangura from Celtic. Majstorovic joined some weeks ago (but is still injured) and Karikari has bagged three in three since returning from Degerfors. I think it’s too little too late as far as their Allsvenskan title challenge goes but they should be a force in the coming weeks.
For this game, though, I feel that they’re out of their depth. They’re playing a vastly superior side and they have to play a tactical approach that really does not suit them by attacking. AIK Solna much prefer to sit back and counter-attack as they’ve got a pacey attack and they’re good at holding leads. However, that praise is reserved for them in the Allsvenskan, which they’re not tonight. They’re facing a vastly experienced CSKA Moscow side, especially with an iron defence that has faced all manner of European opposition over the past few years. AIK have a handful of players that can do damage but they’re going to have be inspired to play well in Khimki.
As long as CSKA are in the mood, I fancy them to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6 to maintain their momentum and put their Swedish opponents out of sight in this tie.
Verdict: CSKA Moscow to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Additional games
Metalist Kharkiv vs Dinamo Bucharest – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
This tie is over, really. That makes it a bit dangerous to bet on, I suppose. However, I view the quality gap between these two sides as being too big for me to simply ignore. Metalist Kharkiv not only won 0-2 in Romania but were extremely comfortable against a side that they’re simply better than. Dinamo Bucharest a big side but they’re very short of quality players nowadays and it shows on the bigger stages. They work hard but that defence of theirs can and will concede against anyone whilst their attack tends to hinge upon their two talented players – Alexe and Tucudean. Metalist Kharkiv are packed full of very talented players and although they tend to excel more away from home than they do at home when it comes to playing Europen games, I can’t help but feel that they’re simply too good to not win this one comfortably. Therefore, I like the look of taking Metalist to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Verdict: Metalist Kharkiv to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
AZ Alkmaar vs Anzhi Makhachkala – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
I like this one a lot more than I should, to be honest. Wonderkid Maher looks immense this season, as does the powerful Altidore up front, so AZ are more of a threat than most people suppose. They’re one of those sides that will constantly maintain their quality despite selling their best players each season. I think AZ are out of their depth here, though. They made Anzhi work hard in Russia to beat them but Anzhi had that extra bit of class and won the game 1-0. A similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me, either. Anzhi are very good at frustrating and they didn’t look out of their comfort zone against AZ in the first leg. They’ve already beaten Vitesse in this tournament without any great difficulty, winning 2-0 in both legs. AZ are better than Vitesse but not by much, if anything. I’d love to believe that AZ will upset the odds here but I just don’t know because Anzhi are impassive and composed, not to mention well-organised. Anzhi have a couple of world-class players here that AZ simply can’t call upon. If they don’t approach this game correctly in the mental sense then they’re going to struggle because AZ are hard to play at home for all clubs, especially in the Netherlands. I’d hate to pick a winner here but Anzhi are usually predictable have a lead; they park the bus, and usually hold it. Therefore, whatever happens, taking under 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot at 5/6.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Slask Wroclaw – Diaz is absent. Widely reported to be Lenczyk’s last game in charge before he’s fired.
Legia Warsaw – Vrdoljak, Wolski, and Jedrzejczyk are absent. Choto returns. Salinas may debutise.
Rosenborg BK – Hoiland is a big doubt. Henriksen has left. Gamboa is absent. Iversen returns. Line-up named – Orlund, Hoiland, Strandberg, Reginiussen, Dorsin, Dockal, Svensson, Mix, Fredheim Holm, Elyounoussi, Prica.
Molde FK – Hovland is absent.
Tromso – Sahlman, Sillanpaa, and Remi Johansen are absent.
Debreceni VSC – Mate, Bouadla, Farkas, Novakovic, Ramos, and Nikolov are absent. Boss Kondas says he will not rotate players here.
AIK Solna – Milosevic, Bangura, and Majstorovic are absent.
Fehervar – No absentees.
AZ Alkmaar – Ortiz, Lewis, Messouad, and Lam are absent.
Racing Genk – Tshimanga is absent.
Club Brugge – Zimling and Trickovski are absent.
Lokeren – No absentees.
PSV Eindhoven – Pieters is absent. Starting eleven named – Waterman, Manolev, De Rijck, Zanka, Willems, Engelaar, Van Ooijen, Wijndalum, Narsingh, Matavz, Depay.
Twente Enschede – Bjelland, Rendla, Kuiper, Chadli, Boschker, and Brama are absent.
Heerenveen – Kum is absent. Zomer is a doubt.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Goossens, Te Vrede, and De Vrij are absent.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Mar’i and Damari return.
Slovan Liberec – Stajner and Rabusic are absent. Sural and Nezmar are doubts.
Sparta Prague – Krejci is absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Kolar, Sevinsky, Hejda, and Malakjan are absent.
HJK Helsinki – Vayrynen, Lindstrom, and Sumusalo are absent. Pelvas and Pohjanpalo returns. Muurinen has commented that their weekend game with TPS Turku is more important than this one.
Lazio – Cana, Ederson, Zauri, Radu, Diakite, Stankevicius, and Brocchi are absent.
Internazionale – Chivu, Alvarez, Stankovic, Obi, Maiga, and Mudingayi are absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Gurpegi, Iraola, Aduriz, Llorente, Gorka Iraizoz, and Ander Herrera are absent. Javi Martinez, the traitorous bastard, has left.
Levante – Rios, Juanfran, and Karabelas are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Rinaudo and Schaars are absent.
Maritimo Funchal – Joao Luiz, Ruben Ferreira, Olberdam, and Semedo are absent. Rozario and Joao Diogo debutise.
Partizan Belgrade – Vukic and Zaabiya are absent. Babovic and Aksentiljevic have left.
Red Star Belgrade – Line-up named as Bajkovic, Mikic, Maksimovic, Jovanovic, Mladenovic, Mijailovic, Dimitrijevic, Vesovic, Lazovic, Milunovic, and Kasalica.
Motherwell – Saunders, Hateley, Law, Hutchinson, and Ramsden are absent. Higdon is a doubt.
Bursaspor – Aziz is absent.
Trabzonspor – Colman and Kacar are doubts.
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo – Renato Abreu, Amaral, Airton, Adriano, and Maldonado are absent.
Sport Recife – Reinaldo is absent. Tobi, Ailson, and Bruno Aguiar return.
Sao Paulo – Canete and Fabricio are absent. Ceni is a doubt. Cortez returns.
Botafogo – Lucas, Rafael Marques, Antonio Carlos, Mattos, Lucas Zen, Vitor Junior, Fellype Gabriel, and Andrezinho are absent.
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers – Hadzibulic is a doubt.
Home United – No absentees.