TFT Issue 497!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Stabaek vs Rosenborg BK – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Eliteserien game between Stabaek and Rosenborg.
Stabaek are ten points from safety with ten games remaining; the time has passed for them to accept that a draw against heavyweights Rosenborg at home may be a respectable result. They need points and they need them fast. The problem is that it’s not simply bad luck or half-arsed displays that have rooted Stabaek to the foot of the Eliteserien; it’s the fact that they’re the worst side in the division, quality-wise. Selling all their talented players pre-season has handicapped them massively and although they’ve raised a couple of eyebrows with sporadic good displays, the majority of their games have resulted in them being beaten, and usually heavily. They’ve already lost seven out of ten at home this season whilst averaging scoring less than a goal per home game and conceding an average of over two goals per home game. Whenever the big boys come calling, Stabaek are found short, hence their 0-5 loss against Molde FK, their 0-4 loss against Brann Bergen, and their 1-2 loss against Stromsgodset. Stabaek have fight in them but it’s beginning to wane for obvious reasons and they’re hosting a side that is a lot better than them so I find it hard to envision them doing well today.
In my opinion, the margin by which Rosenborg win this game will depend entirely on how much they want it. I occasionally find that Rosenborg become lazy and rely on their reputation too much, which can cost them games as they’re not as immortal as they once were in Norway. However, when they put their minds to it, they can beat any side in the country. The signings of Elyounoussi and Reginiussen signalled the intent of Rosenborg and 3-2 aggregate win against Legia Warsaw last week in the UEFA Europa League has given them great momentum to bring into this game. Rosenborg have won three out of their last four away games in the Eliteserien, clearing the -1 Asian Handicap in their last game at Sogndal as they won 0-3. I have no doubts over the quality of this Rosenborg side, nor their superiority over their hosts. My concern solely relates to their motivation, which I unfortunately can’t advise you on until you see how they perform in-play.
You can see what I mean by motivation in some of Rosenborg’s previous games when they’ve only come to life when they’ve had to. Rosenborg usually like to frustrate the hell out of everyone that has backed them by not showing up for seventy minutes and then banging three in. If I remember rightly, they did something very similar at Lerkendal earlier in the season when they hosted Stabaek. As long as they’re up for it, though, we’ll see a very one-sided scoreline in this game.
For me, there’s potentially a lot of value in the -1 Asian Handicap for Rosenborg at 9/10 with the proviso that they match the work-rate of their hosts.
Verdict: Rosenborg BK to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Additional game
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik – over 3 goals at 9/10.
The other game I like today is in Iceland. Heavyweights FH Hafnarfjordur host samba Keflavik and these two sides usually play out interesting games of football.
FH aren’t a massive over 2.5 goals side, to be honest. They’re not as gung-ho as KR Reykjavik or as inept defensively as Stjarnan Gardabaer. Instead, they prefer to bore their opponents to death and then take the chances that come their way with clinical finishing due to the experience advantage that they have over most other Urvalsdeild sides. Still, FH are very good at that approach, hence them scoring nearly three goals per home game on average without getting out of first gear.
Now, FH’s home record shows five wins from eight games, which is pretty good. However, I’d like you to look at FH’s home record in more detail as it tells you more about this game than the odds do. Barring a very fortunate display from UMF Grindavik against a rusty FH side at the start of the season, the two sides that have avoided defeat here are Stjarnan Gardabaer and KR Reykjavik. You can write off KR, if you wish, as games between them and FH are bitter derbies. Personally, I believe that this is down to both sides playing a style of football that FH do not like playing against. FH don’t like it when sides attack them with belief and tenacity, hence them scraping a 2-2 draw with Stjarnan (when they should really have lost) and losing 1-3 against KR Reykjavik. FH only tend to go over 2.5 goals when they’re forced into it and both of those sides forced FH to react, as did Selfoss in a bizarre game that ended 5-2, incidentally.
Now, Keflavik aren’t as good as Stjarnan nor KR but they do play the same way. Keflavik attack wtih passion and they score goals, more often than not. They defend like idiots and will concede goals against any side but they can surprise sides and they’d love to upset FH today due to their old rivalry. Keflavik have a limit as to the sides that they can actually damage but that doesn’t stop them from trying either way. Even Stjarnan lost at Keflavik in the not too distant past because Keflavik took the game to them. I do have a problem with Keflavik’s lack of a recognisable finisher but Johann Gudmundsson tends to carry their attack with his experience and that tends to lead to goals as he’s a good player. Elisson and Elvarsson have looked good this season alongside him so I won’t rule Keflavik out from scoring here against a rather stagnant FH side. However, there’s no way on earth that Keflavik can leave this game with a clean sheet as their defence is too slow and poor positionally to handle the lethal FH attack. However, I do expect Keflavik to give them a damn good game here so be careful if you’re wading into the 1×2 market today as a shock is not impossible.
For me, the market to jump into is goals, though. I really like the look of over 3 goals at 9/10. These two sides play contrasting styles and I think the scope is there for goals to erupt as long as Keflavik play to their maximum, which they usually do against old rivals FH. I don’t care whether FH turn it on and win 4-0 or whether Keflavik force them into a 2-2 draw; I still like the look of over 3 goals at 9/10 as it’ll take a polished FH display and atrocious Keflavik display for this one to lose.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Quilmes – Carli is absent.
Argentinos Juniors – Fernandez is absent. Torren and Laba are doubts.
Racing Club Avellaneda – Hauche is absent. Saja and Villar are doubts.
San Martin de San Juan – Alvarez returns. Grabinski is a doubt.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku – Duah and Diallo are absent. Obilor is unavailable.
VPS Vaasa – Parikka, Koskimaa, and Woodbine are absent. Fowler and Engstrom are doubts. Luokkala returns.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya – Pietrciak and Mugrabi have left. Ben-Harush is absent. Neutral venue at Ramat Gan.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Peretz and Tibi are absent. Yitzhaki and Medunjanin have left. Gohouri may debutise.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stabaek – Andersen and Aase are absent. Cunningham and Boli are doubts.
Rosenborg BK – Braathen and Prica are absent. Iversen returns. Strandberg is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Legia Warsaw – Wolski, Vrdoljak, and Kucharczyk are absent. Radovic returns.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – Konieczny and Sokolowski are absent. Pawela and Piter-Bucko are doubts.