TFT Issue 502!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Alright, let’s see how we handle the U21 games today, shall we? Be aware that this is the final group game for each side and thus sides with nothing to lose or gain may mix things up and irritate the hell out of us all in doing so. Therefore, keep stakes realistic here, guys. One more thing to bear in mind that is that the U21 sides are not as experienced nor as good as their respective senior teams so please don’t treat them as if they can obtain the same scoreline as their senior team would in the same game. For example, you could expect Belarus’ national team to hammer San Marino but at U21 level, I don’t think we’ll see a 5-0 or something like that here.
One final point to be aware of – group winners in the U21 qualifiers do not automatically qualify for Israel 2013. Instead, the top ten sides and the four best-placed runners-up will meet in play-offs and the seven winners will progress and be drawn into two groups of four alongside hosts Israel in next year’s tournament.
Featured game
Czech Republic U21 vs Wales U21 – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier between Czech Republic and Wales.
A single point today will guarantee the Czech Republic a place in the next round and I’ll be surprised if they don’t manage it, to be honest. They’re unbeaten in the qualifiers thus far and they’ve got more than enough experience in their side to ride it out today against an inferior Wales U21 side.
You look at this game on paper and could be forgiven for thinking that the Czechs will beat the handicap here. They average scoring over two goals per game and almost never concede, which is no surprise as Chelsea’s centre-back Kalas commands the back four and he’s a real prospect. However, I very much doubt that we’ll see a demolition job today unless the Welsh just don’t bother. You see, Mlada Boleslav hitman Chramosta is responsible for nine of the nineteen goals that the Czechs have scored in this campaign and he’s still out with a lengthy injury. I wouldn’t describe him as being particularly good, as it goes, but he’s a natural finisher and the Czechs need that at every level, to be brutally honest. That leads me into Vaclav Kadlec, who looks a better quality striker than Chramosta. Kadlec has bagged four in the qualifiers thus far but can’t play today as he’s been called into the senior team following impressive displays for Sparta Prague against Feyenoord Rotterdam. What that essentially means is that the squad that has been called up for this game has only scored six goals in the qualifiers thus far. It doesn’t look as impressive now, does it? Their biggest threat is Viktoria Plzen hitman Wagner, who has been loaned back to old club Marila Pribram to get some more Gambrinus Liga experience. He’s a decent striker but is nothing special, for my money. There’s enough in their midfield with Marecek, Kopic, Hanousek, and Pavelka in order for the Czechs to get at least one goal today but there’s no real threat to the Welsh and that should be viewed as a rather condemning point as far as the handicap goes. The Czech defence is rock-solid with Kalas at the heart of it, though – I’ve no problems with it at all. Lecjaks has bags of experience too. The Czechs could possibly do with a better shot-stopper now that Marek Stech is outside of the squad but this is nonetheless a rather well-oiled and well-0rganised unit that doesn’t concede many goals.
Wales U21 have next to no firepower themselves as anyone with any talent is immediately drafted into the senior team. However, they’ve proven to be surprisingly resilient at U21 level, frustrating sides with more maturity than they should have at the present time. Wales U21 have only conceded in three games thus far and the Czechs only managed to score once against them in Wales despite both Kadlec and Chramosta featuring in the game. Wales U21 always have motivation and with the organisation that they bring into this game versus the absence of two deadly attackers for the Czechs, I think we’re in for a low-scoring game today.
For me, under 2.5 goals is priced generously at evens, hence my selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Belarus U21 vs San Marino U21 – away win with +3.5 handicap at evens.
I do love it when bookies price sides as if they were Barcelona, you know? I like Belarus U21 but it has to be made clear that this crop of Belarusian youngsters are not of the same mould as the ones before them. They’re still relatively solid at the back but they’ve lost their composure and are even more ineffectual in front of goal than before. As soon as Belarus U21 concede nowadays, you just know that they’re going to lose. That arrogance or confidence just isn’t there now and I’m not sure why. They’re not short of good defenders with Politevich in the back four but things don’t work out for them at the present time. In attack is where their biggest problems lie. They’ve never been good at breaking sides down at any level, simply put. They’re always a threat from set pieces and occasionally from counter-attacks but few other situations allow them to really damage their opponents, hence them failing to score in their last three games. The last game they did score in was their 0-2 win in San Marino against today’s opponents but they were hardly outstanding then, requiring a penalty from Khlebosolov to force the San Marinese out of their defensive shape, which ultimately led to Kugan making it 0-2. Belarus are good enough to dominate possession here but will they score enough goals to prevent this tip from winning? I doubt it. It’s going to take a horrific San Marinese display here for this one to lose, in my opinion, and although that’s not impossible, I do find value in giving the visitors a +3.5 handicap at evens as their hosts haven’t scored enough goals in any of their qualifiers that would mean that this tip loses. San Marino are still a poor side and will most likely lose this game but this handicap would mean that they’d have won their last four games so I’m keen to give it a shot here.
Verdict: San Marino U21 to win with +3.5 handicap at evens.
Spain U21 vs Croatia U21 – both sides to score at 5/6.
I think it’s fair to say that this is one of my bolder calls today. Nonetheless, I still like the look of it and I’ll explain why.
Spain are the better side here; fact. You all know that. I think it’s probably fair to say that they’re the best U21 side in the world, actually. However, that doesn’t make them Gods and I think that their odds to win this one today are incorrect, to say the least. Spain should be favourites but to this level and in a game that they don’t have to win? Hmm.
Croatia U21 are missing a number of regular midfielders today, which doesn’t help as midfield is where Spain win most of their games. At the start of the tournament, I vividly remember going against Croatia with the Spanish handicap and feeling incredibly nervous at how much the Croatians unsettled the Spanish. Indeed, had the Croatian side been together for longer than I’m not so sure that Spain would have won that game because only wayward finishing from the Croatians allowed the Spanish the time to take their own chances and secure the win. Croatia played an impressive style of pressurising the unstable Spanish back four and for twenty to thirty minutes in the first-half, Croatia could have and should have scored. Well, this side has been together for longer now and they look better than they did at the start, enough so for me to take a bit of a gamble on them today. The absence of Brozovic, Ademi, Caktas, and Glavica in midfield are far from ideal, as is the absence of captain Kelic in defence. Vukusic has been drafted into the senior team, unfortunately, but both Kramaric and Maglica have demonstrated enough this season to trouble the Spanish, in my view. Croatia will most likely lose this game but they’ve shown a resilience in their last few games that wasn’t so evident at the start of the qualifiers so it’ll be interesting to see what happens here.
Spain have the usual samba defence with Montoya, Planas, Bartra, and Inigo Martinez being the likely four. Amusingly enough, three of those players are at a team that doesn’t enjoy defending whilst the one who is (Martinez) is the most samba member of his own team, frequently getting booked and/or sent off. It’s a recipe for disaster if Croatia probe enough, basically. Spain U21 have left out some regulars for varying reasons so there’ll be no Muniain, Cuenca, Juan Carlos, Thiago Alcantara, or Canales here, which again makes me think that the short odds are too short. They have still got Tello and Isco in midfield, not to mention Rodrigo Moreno up front so there should still be at least one Spanish goal today. Spain U21 have intriguingly drafted in Barcelona II kids Sergi Roberto and Gerard Deuloefu, the latter of which has looked amazing this season. It’ll be fascinating to see how they do for the U21 side.
However, I see gaps in this Spanish side as well as the Croatian side and I do think that there’s enough scope to take both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Slovakia U21 vs Kazakhstan U21 – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I took on another Kazakhstan U21 under 2.5 goals call last week and it won again. Can anyone blame me for trying it again? I’ve won enough times with this selection to allow it lose once but even so, I don’t believe it will lose today.
Slovakia U21 mirror their senior team perfectly in the sense that they’re well-organised, hard to break down, tireless, and horribly inefficient/restricted in the final third. People will most likely be backing them like mad today as they beat group leaders France U21 in their last match but I am not so sure. France U21 did them a favour by attacking them as Slovakia U21 can counter-attack well and will punish sides if allowed. Kazakhstan U21 just won’t do that; Krcmarevic’s side has a proven history of sitting back and defending. Slovakia absolutely hate playing against that and who can blame them? The two goals scored against France were the only goals that Slovakia have scored in their last four games, incidentally. Slovakia won 0-1 in Kazakhstan in the reversal of this fixture and I expect a similar scoreline today as only Simonek from Nitra scores for them and Vavrik of Ruzomberok is out, which damages their creativity. Gregus and Zilak are threats, as is Captain Kiss of Cardiff City, and the Slovaks do have a very experienced squad at this level. However, they’re facing a side that has become extremely good at defending, a side that has only conceded eight goals in seven games against sides that are predominantly better than they are. Indeed, five of those eight goals were scored by France so you can see what I mean. Serbs may not be known for their attacking flair but they certainly know how to organise a back four and Krcmarevic has made this Kazakh side very frustrating to play against. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at 9/10 is a bit of a steal here, especially with the hosts like to do what they do best if/when they take the lead – defend. After all, they’d hate to risk giving the lead away against a side that is a nightmare to break down when three points are so essential to them today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Luxembourg U21 vs Bulgaria U21 – home win with +1.5 handicap at 5/6.
The odds on Bulgaria U21 winning this game? Now they’re odds I like!
Despite Bulgaria U21 having undoubtedly improved since the early stages of this campaign, they’re still horribly poor at scoring goals. If there were points awarded for sides working hard and playing well, not to mention creating chances, then Bulgaria U21 would probably be atop of this group! That’s not how it works, though – it’s goals and points that count and Bulgaria U21 don’t have enough of either. They’ve only scored in one of their away games in the current campaign and only just managed to beat Luxembourg U21 3-2 in their home fixture. I’ve no queries over the motivation or work ethic of this Bulgarian team but they tend to concede daft goals and they don’t score enough to concern me. Luxembourg U21 are still one of the weaker U21 sides in Europe but they’re also improving all the time so I’d be a shade wary of Luxembourg U21 here. Bulgaria U21 have brought a fairly weak squad to Luxembourg for this game too with the majority of their midfield absent as Tonev, G.Milanov, and I.Milanov are all with the senior team. Regular striker Kirilov of Lumezzane in Italy, regular goalkeeper Iliev of Levski Sofia, and midfielder Baldzhiyski are all absent too, which leaves this Bulgaria U21 side looking vare bare with Nedelev, Chochev, and Petkov looking largely ready to be blooded by Madanski.
It’s a risk, obviously, as the only piece of the jigsaw that Bulgaria U21 are missing is a finisher. However, I like the look of taking Luxembourg +1.5 handicap at 5/6, especially after a rather spirited display at Scotland U21 last week in which they could have and should have scored, especially having matched the Scots for the whole of the first-half. The hosts should be able to upset their under-strength visitors today, in my opinion.
Verdict: Luxembourg U21 to win with +1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Lithuania U21 vs Finland U21 – away win with draw no bet at 5/6.
They’re a funny side, Lithuania U21. They’re not especially good but when the bigger sides come calling, they seem to be really motivated to do well. Fortunately, Finland U21 aren’t a big side and I hope that they’ll be motivated for revenge following their bizarre 3-4 defeat against Lithuania U21 in Finland back in August.
Lithuania do have threats in the form of Eliosius and especially Novikovas of Hearts. I struggle to find any others that bother me, though. Lithuania look a tad bland for my liking, short of creativity and ultimately short of goals. They’re a hard side to beat at home but their squad doesn’t concern me, to be frank. If Finland are naive here then they’ll lose but if they play a composed game and take their chances then I can’t see them losing.
Why? Well, there’s no requirement for either side to win this game, which is why I was surprised to see the Finns bring such a strong squad to Lithuania for the encounter. To me, that shows that they mean business. They’ve got arguably their most dangerous attacking options up front since Tomi Petrescu was coming through in the form of experienced Dalla Valle, HJK hotshot Pohjanpalo, and Honka Espoo hitman Vayrynen. In midfield, set piece specialist Forsell, now of Bursaspor, is ready to rock and ruin. Pennanen and Lahde have had good seasons in the Veikkausliiga and VPS’ emerging midfielder Lod has earned another call-up too – it’ll be interesting to see if he features after a good campaign and whether he does enough to merit a return to parent club HJK at the end of the current campaign. Their defence is still their weakest area but with Mantyla of Ludogorets commanding it, HJK’s Moren alongside him, and Sahlgren in net, there’s enough to frustrate their hosts today.
For me, there’s an awful lot of firepower in the Finnish squad and motivation seems to be high. If they’re out for revenge then I think they’ll get it. For me, there really should be value on taking Finland U21 with draw no bet cover at 5/6, especially having only lost their previous game against Lithuania due to capitulation in defence after taking a comfortable lead.
Verdict: Finland U21 to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Sweden U21 vs Ukraine U21 – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
To quote “Pirates Of The Caribbean” – “What fortunate circumstance be this!”. The two most dangerous attacking sides in the group lock horns today with Ukraine U21 needing the win to pass Sweden U21 in a bid to guarnatee their place in the next round whilst Sweden U21 share the same fate, although they’re at least guaranteed to be heading for the play-offs should they not win this game as one of the best-placed sides to finish second in the group.
You can’t sugar-coat it, though – Ukraine U21 have to win here. They humiliated Sweden U21 6-0 in Ukraine so I doubt that they’ll find Kalmar a particularly hospitable place today. The result in their previous meeting was surprising, though, it has to be said. Sweden’s defence simply fell apart and a delighted Ukraine tore them apart again and again. Quality-wise, there’s actually very little between these two sides and given the potential revenge factor, I do think that Sweden may beat Ukraine today.
However, I wouldn’t dare take it, given the numerous factors that can affect this game. Attackers Guidetti and Armenteros are out and although Ishak and Celik are in good form right now, it’s hard to compare them to their afore-mentioned. That said, Rasmus Jonsson is in the squad too and there’s a formidable midfield behind them with the pacey, ego-driven, talented, but crazy Hult alongside team-mate Hiljemark and captain Hamad. There’s plenty of pace and skill in this midfield so I do think that they’ll damage Ukraine today. Still, the Swedish defence is susceptible at best and Ukraine know it. Can they capitalise?
Ukraine miss leading goalscorer Budkivskiy with the big Illichivets Mariupol hitman not in the squad. He’s already bagged ten goals at this level so he may well be missed here. Harmash and Vitsenets are missing from midfield but there are still good players in this side. My questions over Ukraine would be whether Kaverin is good enough to be up front at this level or whether hot prospect Korkishko has enough experience to do something here. Rybalka was immense in Ukraine’s recent demolition of Malta and with Shakhov of Dnipro alongside him, Ukraine do have a midfield that can do well here, especially as there’s a great deal of experience in their side. I like that they can’t be especially tactical here, though. Ukraine love to be tactical but the fact that they can’t makes me think that they’ll both score and concede here.
All of the above makes me think that taking over 2.5 goals is well worth a flutter at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Switzerland U21 vs Estonia U21 – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
This is another risky call but it’s one that I do like a lot as I see a mammoth quality gap between the two sides.
The absence of their leading goalscorer Zuber today is a problem for the Swiss, admittedly. However, both Ben Khalifa and Seferovic (now of Fiorentina) are more than capable of scoring goals here. Fulham midfielder Kasami is pushing for a place in Jol’s starting eleven and both Abashi and Wiss are very solid and dependable players. The tenacity of Bundebele with winning the ball back is superb but his bad disciplinary makes me for the Swiss a little as they could ill-afford to be reduced to ten men if they have any intention of winning this game. There’s a strong level of cohesion in this talented Swiss side with a number of players from Grasshopper Zurich in their squad. This Swiss side attacks well and tends to take their chances. They know they’re all out to impress senior team boss Hitzfeld and that tends to make them work harder, especially seeing how the senior team has flourished under the former Bayern Munich tactician. This Swiss side has the motivation and the quality to do well today and I personally think that they’ll run riot.
I’ve not heard any team news at the time of writing this preview but I’m hoping that I won’t need to. I’ve seen the squad that Estonia U21 have brought to Switzerland for this game and I am not concerned. Barring the Anier brothers, this Estonia U21 is horribly short of quality in all areas. Taar of Levadia Tallinn has looked decent this season and the experience at the back of Veis and Jahhimovits is useful but my point still remains; there is not much quality in this side. There’s no Reintam, Prosa, nor Tamm in this U21 side and that handicaps them somewhat. How they’ll provide chances for the Anier brothers to score I don’t know. This side looks short on leadership, short on composure, and ultimately it’s no surprise that they’ve lost six out of their seven qualifiers thus far. In fact, the only one they managed to avoid defeat in was their game their home game against Switzerland U21 at the start of this game in a game that Estonia U21 were absolutely annihlated in. It’s a miracle that they didn’t concede! Estonia U21 actually lost 2-1 in their game last Thursday against a very experimental Georgia U21 side despite taking the leading and having now travelled some 2500-3000 miles to play this game with just two/three days rest, I can’t see them being able to handle their vastly superior hosts today.
For me, this one should be a mauling so the -2 Asian Handicap appeals to me at 9/10.
Verdict: Switzerland U21 to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Team news
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Croatia – Ademi, Brozovic, Cop, Antolic, Glavica, Caktas, and Kelic are absent.
Bulgaria – P.Iliev, Baldzhiyski, R.Kolev, G.Milanov, I.Milanov, and Tonev are absent.
Belgium – Badibanga, Perdichizzi, Vermijl, Casteels, Bruno, Praet, de Bock, and Perdicchi are absent.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Lanus – Ayala and Vizcarrondo are absent. Regueiro and Romero are doubts.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – Ibanez is absent.
Union de Santa Fe – Magnin is absent. Jara is a doubt. New boss Nery Pumpido – first game in charge.
Tigre – Castano and Torassa are absent.