TFT Issue 503!
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Featured game
Austria vs Germany – both sides to score at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the World Cup Qualifier between bitter rivals Austria and Germany.
A lot of people expect a heavy Germany win here. Me? I’m not so sure, and I’ll explain why.
I’ve not seen Austria play as well as this for some time, firstly. They lack the names that Germany possess but they have more spirit and cohesion than their close neighbours and that counts for a lot, in my view. This side will fight for every ball and they have no problem scoring goals either, which is something that Austria could rarely boast in the past. Despite the absence of old hands Wallner and Linz from their current squad, I’ve got complete faith in the rejuvenated Harnik, dangerous Arnautovic, and the towering Janko. They’re all dangerous players, especially so with Ivanschitz, Junuzovic, and Kavlak supporting them. They’re going to be a bit exposed without Scharner helping out defensively, who has been banished from the team, but I rate their attacking ability very highly right now and I believe they’ll employ a high-tempo and pressurising game that Germany will not like one bit. Austria have scored in six out of their last eight home games in all competitions and haven’t lost at home in over a year. This side is a lot better than most people perceive, in my view.
Germany are obviously the better side here but how well will they play? I thought they were bland against the Faroe Islands and although this is a game that they’ll be much more motivated for, I am not so sure that they’ll be able to play their game as well as they’d like. Austria are no mugs and most of their team play in the German Bundesliga so they know the German side well. Germany faced a similar scenario against Switzerland and were heavily beaten, which was partially due to poor defending and partially because the Swiss players knew the German side well. There’s no Gomez in this squad, nor Schweinsteiger, so it’s hard to see where the German leadership in the middle of the park and where their iron presence in the air will come from. There are plenty of excellent attacking options in Schurrle, Reus, Podolski, Kroos, and Ozil when it comes to supporting Klose. Defensively, they look slow and predictable with their full-backs keen to romp forward but not so keen to do their defensive duty. I think the Germans are in for a surprise here unless they play an A1 game.
I like Austria far more than I should here, to be honest. I toyed with taking them on the Asian Handicap, with draw no bet, and even to score over 1.5 goals. I have to be realistic, though – Germany could pummel them if they really apply themselves. However, I really like the look of taking both sides to score at 4/5 as I fancy the hosts to make their opponents work hard today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Additional games
Cyprus vs Iceland – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
I can’t add much more to this other than to say that Iceland have impressed me a lot of late and Cyprus are in decline. Konstantinou is still leading the line for Cyprus but with no Okkas, Cyprus don’t look as dangerous. Their midfield options are decent in Efrem, Avraam, and Charalambides but there isn’t a great deal of creativity there. You can see that from how fast they nationalised French midfielder Labran, who has always done well for Anorthosis Famagusta and he’ll be a threat if selected here. Cyprus can actually pass the ball around well but essentially, they don’t trouble their opponents enough nowadays and they concede too many goals. Iceland, on the other hand, are a budding side that look very strong in attack with plenty of dangerous options. They’re not as secure defensively as a probing Norwegian side found out last week without managing to punish them for it. Still, they’re strong, confident, quick, and very capable. I really like the look of this Iceland side. Taking them with draw no bet looks very interesting to me today.
Verdict: Iceland to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Bulgaria vs Armenia – both sides to score at 11/10.
Bulgaria’s biggest problem at this moment in time is their ability to attack and score goals. However, there was no sign of that as they worked extremely hard against Italy and ended up scoring two goals. That’s the thing with Bulgaria, really – when they’re motivated, they’re bloody hard to play against. Most of the time they don’t bother, though, and produce highly uninspiring displays such as in their home defeat against Turkey. They’ve spoken highly of Armenia pre-match, though, so it’s reasonable to expect Bulgaria to deliver a convincing and hard-working display here. Still, they made bad defensive errors against Italy, who could have scored four goals in that game. Armenia are good enough in attack to punish them if they do the same here. Armenia had a tough game in Malta against the defensive islanders but eventually broke them down and couple have scored another goal or two themselves. Armenia can’t defend, though, especially not against pace so it’s reasonble to expect them to score in most of their games and this one is no exception. Don’t underestimate how dangerous these guys are in attack, though – they’re very good, in my view. Movsisyan needs to realise that he’s not the only player on the pitch sometimes though!
For me, taking both sides to score at 11/10 is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Scotland vs Republic of Macedonia – home win at 5/6.
I watched Scotland host Serbia recently and was surprised by how much Scotland held back despite having the upper hand against a barely recognisable Serbian team. Scotland held back until far too late and eventually dropped two points because they really should have won the game. Indeed, if Kenny Miller could keep his head in front of goal (or actually position himself well enough to judge the flight of the ball) then they would have scored too. Serbia really struggled to contain Scotland and I think Macedonia will share the same fate today. Pandev will always be a threat but he often looks like the only one for Macedonia. There’s no Naumoski in the squad to give Macedonia an alternative up front and with Grozdanoski out in midfield, this Macedonia side is lacking today. Lazarevski in defence is another important absentee. I’d always point to Pandev, Sumulikoski, Noveski, Tasevski, and Popov as the cornerstones of this Macedonian side and they’re admittedly all present today. Still, there’s a lack of experience in midfield and I think that they’ll struggle to deal with the tenacity and physical presence of the Scottish side. Levein was under pressure in the press following his decision to change his formation against Serbia and I think he’ll play a more attacking formation today. I’d prefer to see Rhodes in for Miller and Forrest in on the flank to boost the Scottish attack but if they play it properly then they really should beat a weakened Macedonia side.
Verdict: Scotland to win at 5/6.
Chile vs Colombia – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I don’t often entertain the South American World Cup Qualifiers nowadays because the odds are often a joke for sides that struggle to keep eleven men on the field. Still, I like over 2.5 goals here enough to take a chance and I’ll explain why.
Chile play a good passing game. They’re very hard to contain and as long as they take their chances, they’re almost unplayable at times. It’s intriguing how they often pass the ball better than both Brazil and Argentina, really – it’s just a shame that you can count the number of good strikers that they can call upon on one hand. They’ve ditched Suazo for this game, which is a shame as he’s their most recognisable and reliable strikers. They’re hoping that Vargas will replace him in every way and perhaps he will; he certainly has plenty of potential. Pinilla has done well at Cagliari too so there are options here. As ever, though, a lot will depend upon Barceona starlet Alexis Sanchez, who will be very dangerous here, as per usual. The absence of Valdivia concerns me despite the quality of both Fernandez and Aranguiz in the playmaker role. There’s plenty of crazies in their team, though – real battlers who can get sent off at any stage, such as Medel, Vidal, and Isla. They take no prisoners! This is a side engineered to attack, though, and they do score goals, which is what I expect from them here.
Colombia look fresh now that Falcao has become arguably the best finisher in the world, though – they’ll be a threat here. I can’t remember the last time I saw a side dismantle Uruguay so easily and it was largely due to Falcao that Colombia managed it. He’s not their only threat, though, which is what people tend to forget. Gutierrez is a very good striker although he’s easily the most temperamental player in it after being banished from his last club (Racing Club Avellaneda) after pulling a gun on a team-mate in the dressing room. He’s back in Colombia now. Strange fella but a very good goalscorer. Quintero’s pace is a threat (although his finishing is quesitonable) and Martinez of Porto is developing although I am not his biggest fan, I must confess. James Rodriguez is a superb playmaker and will cause chaos here if unleashed properly. Aguilar is a real battleaxe in midfield and I feel confident that either he or Medel will be sent off in this game, especially if they lock horns. There’s plenty of pace and skill in this Colombia side although their lack of options in midfield does bother me. Their samba defenders in Yepes, Perea, Mosquera, and Zapata bother me as they’re likely to get involved in tussles with the Chileans and get sent off too.
Indeed, I’m going to be pretty fucking amazed if both sides end this game with eleven men as there are too many loonies in both teams. That said, I like the idea of goals here, though. Chile are set to play Vidal in defence due to a shortage at the back and that gives Falcao even more impetus to score goals here. Both sides are susceptible when attacked properly and overall, I think taking over 2.5 goals at evens is well worth a bet today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
World Cup Qualifiers:
Bulgaria – No absentees other than the usual long-term absentees Berbatov, M.Petrov, S.Petrov, and Georgiev.
Armenia – No absentees.
Scotland – Adam, Gilks, and McGregor are doubts.
Belgium – Dufour replaces Dembele. Mirallas will not start.
Turkey – Demirel and Korkmaz are absent. Toprak is a doubt.
Poland – Obraniak has left the squad. Lewandowski and Blaszczykowski have been outspoken lately, criticising their team-mates etc.
Russia – Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko are absent.
Spain – Albiol returns.
Serbia – No absentees.
Romania – Goian is absent.
Italy – De Rossi, Cassano, and Balotelli are absent.
Sweden – No absentees.
Hungary – Gera returns.
Estonia – Starting line-up all but clear with Pareiko, Jaager, Rahn, Klavan, Teniste, Puri, Dmitrijev, Vassiljev, Lindpere/Kruglov, Kink, and Oper.
Israel – Ben-Haim returns. Damari, Kayal, and Gershon are absent.
Croatia – Badelj, Petric, and Lovren are absent.
Netherlands – de Jong, van der Vaart, van der Wiel, and Fer are absent.
Czech Republic – Cech, Rosicky, Pilar, and Limbersky are absent.