TFT Issue 505!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Siauliai vs Atlantas – over 3.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the A Lyga game between samba Siauliai and doomed Atlantas.
Siauliai are a fascinating side by Lithuanian standards. They simply play a very attractive brand of football by attacking at all times. Over the past few years, that simply wasn’t their style; they were very much the 1-0 side. However, they revamped their style to see if things improved for them and it has – to a certain degree. They’re now one of the most potent sides in Lithuania and I can’t think of a side that hasn’t conceded against them this season, to be frank. Few sides can claim that over 50% of their home games have gone over 3.5 goals this season but Siauliai can. Not all of that comes from them scoring goals, you understand, but also from them definitely like morons. There are a number of sides in Lithuania that can defend, the most notorious of which would be Ekranas Panevezys or Zalgiris Vilnius. Siauliai, though – they just don’t bother trying, hence almost everyone scoring against them at will. Still, Siauliai are very good at attacking and scoring goals and with Rimkevicius in his best form since leaving FBK Kaunas, it’s hardly surprising. He has a good strike partner in Argentinian attacker Cesanelli but even more importantly he has plenty of support from Vezevicius, Kozlovs, and even Bartkus.
Atlantas are bottom of the A Lyga due to their previously crippling finances. However, their old chairman bought them back a few months back and since then, you’ll note that their results have improved, although not sufficiently nor consistently enough to convince them that they can avoid the drop. Still, their spirit is strong; stronger than it looks on paper. Their squad is much stronger, too. Admittedly, a lot of them are still new to the side as Atlantas invested in a number of foreign players, most of which are French. The one that has made a real impression is Croatian striker Lagator, who has bagged six goals in seven games since signing for Atlantas. Khadraoui has added creativity to their midfield and have bizarrely added some more samba defenders in former Klaipeda man Taciano and the strong N’Diaye. I won’t deny that Atlantas’ defence has improved but it is still pretty crazy and weak when it comes to defending. These names have bolstered Atlantas’ attack, though, make no mistake. It’s no coincidence that Atlantas have scored in seven out of their last nine A Lyga games under new boss Roques, who is unsurprisingly from France. Atlantas are not quite the pushovers that they once were and in Razulis and Lagator they have a much stronger attacking duo than their A Lyga placing eludes to.
They’re an enjoyable side to watch, Siauliai, and if you use Bet365 I would recommend watching the game as you’ll most probably clean up in-play too. I expect Atlantas to attack and contribute to this game too. Whether the tip wins or not, nobody can say until the game has finished. However, I expect goals in this game one way or another and thus there really should be money in this one whether it’s pre-match or in-play as both sides can score goals and both concede freely.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Botafogo vs Internacional – both sides to score at 4/5.
Botafogo have disappointed me in the last few months. I don’t necessarily expect them to win lots of games or to win Serie A because they’ve signed some good players/big names. However, I do expect 100% committment from them in each game, especially whilst playing in Rio de Janeiro, and they’ve been missing that. Tenacity and belief are characteristics that I’ve long associated with Botafogo, particularly when the bigger clubs come calling, but they’ve become a shade dormant in recent weeks, which is depressing. Still, Seedorf has proven to be a useful catalyst for the club and I hope that he’ll be passed fit enough to play today.
That said, who am I to criticise them? They’ve won three consecutive games ahead of this one so confidence is clearly high and they’re back to scoring goals for fun. It’s no surprise, really – scoring goals is something Botafogo have always done well. There’s talk of Rafael Marques returning today and with Elkeson, Fellype Gabriel, Lodeiro, and Andrezinho all likely to play, there’s more than enough attacking prowess in this Botafogo side in order for them to at least score here today. The absence of Antonio Carlos today and the potential tiredness of returning duo Fabio Ferreira and Marcio Azevedo raises question marks over an already suspect defence so I would be surprised to see Botafogo leave this game without conceding, which is something that they’ve only managed to do in five of their twelve Serie A home games this season. Indeed, only Vasco da Gama from the remaining top seven sides in Serie A have conceded more goals at home than Botafogo have this season. Still, Botafogo are a goalscoring side and I expect them to manage that much today at least.
Will they win it, though? I just don’t know. Part of me says that they should as Internacional are a very predictable away side and will lose most of the time if they ship two goals in the same game as their firepower/conviction isn’t enough to see them take points on the road. However, I cannot overlook the firepower and attacking flair that Internacional bring into this game, which is something that simply cannot be argued. Key playmaker Andres D’Alessandro returns from suspension today and that’s a massive boost, in my opinion. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that they were awful without him, won 4-1 upon his return, and failed to score in the game he was missing in. Whether he’s scoring goals or making them, this fella is the heartbeat of the Internacional team. Add to the mix the return of experienced Guinazu alongside him, hotshot Leandro Damiao, and veteran Diego Forlan, and you have a combination that will yield goals against a less than convincing Botafogo defence. Dagoberto’s absence doesn’t greatly concern me with D’Alessandro’s return although his pace did cause Fluminense problems in their last game, admittedly. Away from home, Internacional’s defensive record is good, especially for a Brazilian side. Unlike most of their contemporaries, Internacional actually have the capacity to defence, which is like a breath of fresh air in Serie A. Here’s a worrying statistic for Internacional fans, though – they’ve not won a single game away from home in Serie A this season when they’ve conceded. It’s not encouraging, is it? Whether it’s due to a lack of quality or due to misfortune, this kind of record causes unrest in the minds of their players and subsequently I would be very surprised to see Internacional win this game. Indeed, Kleber’s continued absence has been worsened by the fact that fellow defenders Nei and Fabricio miss out today, which means that Internacional keeping a clean sheet here should be regarded as something of a miracle.
Perhaps Internacional will adapt a new style here – who knows? They need to if they have any chance of actually getting something from it. Botafogo need the points for obvious reasons and they’re good enough to get them. Are they consistent and composed enough, though? I would not dare enter that discussion. I do like the look of both sides scoring at 4/5, though – I feel those odds are longer than they should be here, irrespective of the statistics.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
KuPS Kuopio vs TPS Turku – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Odds on the over 2.5 goals market are rising so perhaps you may find better odds than these if you look. I can understand why they’re rising but I don’t agree with it, to be honest, and I’ll explain why.
Firstly, these three points are going to be hotly-contested because they have to be. Despite possessing a side capable of finishing in the top five of the Veikkausliiga, KuPS bafflingly find themselves third from bottom with only five points seperating them from rock-bottom Jaro Pietarsaari. KuPS may be pleased to learn that vital midfielder Agyeman has left Jaro Pietarsaari but they’ll not be so pleased to see him wearing a TPS Turku shirt today, I’m sure.
Quite how the league table is as it is right now is beyond me, to be honest. Why MyPa Anjalankoski and FC Lahti aren’t the two battling it out to avoid relegation this season is beyond me as both have far surpassed what they should have been capable of. KuPS, Honka, and JJK should all be vying for top five places which they’re just not. A drastically weakened and new-look IFK Mariehamn are somehow still riding high (although that won’t last now that Forsell has moved to Turkey to play for Bursaspor). Barring the placings of Haka Valkeakoski, VPS Vaasa, and the top three, the Veikkausliiga table looks rather upside-down this season!
Still, we have to respect what has put KuPS where they are and that’s inconsistency. They concede goals far, far too easily for a good side, averaging conceding nearly two goals per home game, which is the joint worst record in the division. Still, look at what they achieved lately – they progressed to the Suomen Cup Final for the second year in a row after triumphing against MyPa Anjalankoski. KuPS may have rode their luck with some of their draws but beating TPS Turku is no simple feat and yet they managed it in the earlier stages, albeit on penalties.
KuPS welcome back Estonian duo Puri and Purje, the latter of which has now signed a two-year deal with the club, which only adds to the formidable attacking power that KuPS have. The height and strength of Ilo and Venelainen being partnered by the creativity of Puri and the pace of Purje provides a very real and dangerous threat for KuPS. Spot the problem, though – in every home game against a big side this season, KuPS have conceded at least two goals; often more. It’s too easy to score against the yellow-and-black of Kuopio with Pietari Holopainen still out with long-term injury. Still, KuPS have the promising Nigerian midfielder Obifuele in their ranks and they’ve rescued their former hero Dudu from a disappointing spell at FC Honka Espoo, who could yet be a pivotal signing in their surprise battle against relegation. The fact is that KuPS have a tremendous attack; all they need is cohesion, grit, and consistency. They need to turn it on and soon. Their Suomen Cup run is now at the back of their minds until the end of the season and the battle against relegation must become their priority, at least for the present. TPS Turku are not impossible to beat and KuPS have the players to beat them, especially in Kuopio. They know that TPS Turku fear the Savon Sanomat Areena; they have not won here in their last four attempts in the Veikkausliiga.
Still, that’s what TPS Turku must do if their title ambitions are genuine. They could not have picked a worse time to sell arguably their best player in Toni Kolehmainen as they do not have a replacement playmaker. The signing of Agyeman from Jaro will pave over some cracks but it won’t be a proper replacement. He’s got to adjust, let’s not forget, and TPS don’t have time for him to do that. They need points, and they need them now, especially following their 1-2 defeat against reigning champions HJK Helsinki. Rajamaki recognises the importance of the departed Kolehmainen as he’s actually signed two players to help TPS Turku for the rest of the season. There’s Agyeman, who I have already mentioned, and there’s also Roope Riski on loan. Now, TPS Turku raised both Riski brothers through their ranks, both of which who have gone on to further themselves abroad. Neither has really made the desired impression as of yet, though, and TPS Turku brought Riku Riski back last season to help out for a short period and he was magnificent, giving TPS Turku points that they otherwise wouldn’t have got. Rajamaki has clearly signed forward Roope Riski for the same purpose as he was a superb goalscorer for TPS Turku during his time here so he’ll be a valuable partner for the lethal Aaritalo, not to mention in-form Ristola. Perhaps they’ll finally ditch Okaru so his weak finishing stops messing up my bets! I feel for Lehtonen, though – he’s got plenty of promise but can rarely find a consistent starting place with even veteran Hyyrynen getting the nod ahead of him most of the time. Now he has Roope Riski ahead of him too, if only until the end of the season. Could it be an inspired move for TPS Turku to sign a former hero? HJK Helsinki are not as untouchable as they once were and bitter rivals Inter Turku have a derby with TPS Turku and tough trips to HJK Helsinki and JJK Jyvaskyla left to play so don’t suppose for one moment that this league is over because it’s not!
One thing is for sure, though – whatever TPS Turku intend to do to cope without playmaker Kolehmainen is going to take time to implement fully and time is one thing they don’t have. That means that they have to cut corners somewhere and that leads to mistakes. Despite their convincing approach to defending, I think that they’ll have to try something new here as three points are a must and that may hurt them because KuPS Kuopio are a horrible side to have to play against, especially when they’re counter-attacking. KuPS have many offensive powers in their ranks and I believe that they will trouble Tanska and co. today.
As far as absentees go, TPS Turku miss leading goalscorer Ristola and the excellent Pennanen, which is the main reason behind the odds dropping on under 2.5 goals. For me, Aaritalo is their best striker, however, and both Riski and Agyeman are capable of making quick impacts here so I am not sure that the market is moving the correct way. Lahde is a doubt but I do not suppose for one moment that Rajamaki will start this game without three midfielders that have played the majority of TPS Turku’s games this season with Pennanen out and Kolehmainen in Norway.
All in all, I feel that we’ll see goals here. The motivation is here, the firepower is here, the dodgy defending of KuPS Kuopio is here, and the number of players that need to prove themselves are here too. TPS Turku may want revenge for their Suomen Cup defeat here but they need the points anyway so they can’t afford to play their usual cautious game here. KuPS are vulnerable; TPS Turku have to attack them, surely.
My only real concern is which KuPS shows up, really. The real KuPS can win this game 3-0. The more often seen KuPS can lose 0-2 without getting into the opposing half. They’re very much a hit-and-miss side, hence their predicament. I would urge you to not doubt their quality, though – they’re a very good side and should trouble TPS Turku. As this is the only Veikkausliiga game today, you may strike lucky and find a stream for this game. It would be prudent to see how the game develops before taking the plunge, I suppose, because KuPS have ruined many a bet for everyone by not doing what they’re supposed to do. If KuPS show up then we’re in for goals here. If they don’t, our bet is in big trouble as TPS Turku do not often score three goals in the same game, irrespective of their returning hero Riski. I expect an interesting game here either way and for me, taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo – Antonio Carlos, Vitor Junior, Renato, Lucas Zen, Marcelo Mattos are absent. Seedorf is a doubt. Rafael Marques, Fabio Ferreira, Marcio Azevedo, Jefferson, and Lodeiro return.
Internacional – Nei, Kleber, Fabricio, Rafael Moura, Otavinho, Juan, Dagoberto, and Ygor are absent. D’Alessandro, Leandro Damiao, Forlan, and Guinazu return.
Gremio – Ze Roberto, Andre Lima, Bertoglio, Julio Cesar, and Fabio Aurelio are absent. Anderson Pico, Marcelo Moreno, and Vilson return.
Nautico – Kieza, Marlon, Ramirez, Rogerinho, and Araujo are absent. Martinez returns.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen is absent. Sohna returns.
TPS Turku – Pennanen and Ristola are absent. Lahde is a doubt. Roope Riski may “debutise” on his return to Turku and Agyeman may also debutise.
Finnish YKkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka – Wheeler, Jammeh, and Kvist are absent. Linjala’s loan deal has ended.
SJK – Penninkangas, Tiitus Lehtinen, and Viljanen are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
MS Ashdod – Oshaniwa may debutise.
Beitar Jerusalem – Fernandes is absent. Ibinder has left. Cohen has a touchline ban. Haddad, Galabina, Azriel, and Ben-Shushan may debutise.