TFT Issue 507!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Sevilla CF vs Real Madrid – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Sevilla and Real Madrid in Andaluscia.
Sevilla boss Michel thinks that Sevilla can upset Real Madrid today. I don’t really agree with that as Sevilla aren’t a very good side nowadays and their constant changing of managers is not helping matters.
I won’t deny that Real Madrid have not played well thus far but to be fair to them, they’ve had a good Valencia side to face at home and a derby with Getafe away. They beat Granada in their last game to restore parity and I think that they’ll continue that today. A couple of their players are lacking confidence and Higuain is rapidly turning into a fat mess but they’re still an amazingly good team that can and will score goals for fun. They’ve won 6-2 here on their last two visits. I doubt the scoreline will be the same again but they really should be beating Sevilla here.
Sevilla still command a certain authority on their home turf with the quality of Rakitic and Navas in midfield. Their quality players are running out, though – only former Real Madrid academy boy Negredo scores goals for them nowadays and he has little support. I think this Sevilla side looks predictable and bland. To me, they have a long way to go to become a Primera Liga force again and they’re not facing the right side today to be able to start that run now.
Sevilla could and probably should score against a leaky Madrid defence. I’m going to be beyond surprised if Madrid don’t beat them, though – they’re superior to Sevilla in every department and really should break the handicap comfortably today.
Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Additional games
Levadia Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Well, isn’t this a fascinating game? Against the odds, Levadia Tallinn avoided defeat at Nomme Kalju a few weeks ago. Can they do the same again on their own turf? I am not so sure.
Levadia did well in that game with their counter-attacks but truth be told, Nomme Kalju were rarely out of control of the game and only conceding goals at stupid times in bizarre fashion cost them the win. Nomme Kalju’s approach was more than sufficient to allow them to win the game nine times out of ten but that day simply wasn’t theirs. However, they’re the model of efficiency and professionalism so I expect them to do well here against a very youthful and frankly overrated Levadia side.
For today’s game, Levadia miss regular goalkeeper Shmisko and essential defender Artjunin. That makes their task even harder today, in my view. People didn’t expect much from them last time around and they surprised people by taking their chances. Today, though, they’re expected to push on and try to win if they have any actual intentions of winning the Meistriliiga. If they don’t do that then the title is all but beyond them, in my opinion. Nomme Kalju have the strongest squad in Estonia right now and they will win more of their remaining games than both Levadia and Flora will. Levadia have to win this game and that makes it a very different ball game today.
Unlike Levadia, Nomme Kalju can either break sides down and pick them off or they can counter-attack well. Nomme Kalju have players for all occasions and they have a full squad today to boot. They have the luxury of sitting back here, not that I think they’ll do it. I think they’ll want revenge for the game that they should have won two weeks ago and I think that they’ll manage it too. Levadia don’t have the quality to beat Nomme Kalju without some form of assistance so realistically speaking, taking the away win with draw no bet cover looks a bargain at 11/10 to me.
Verdict: Nomme Kalju to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
FC Honka Espoo vs JJK Jyvaskyla – lay FC Honka Espoo at 9/10.
Well, guys and girls, the rumour mill is churning and it’s saying that a certain Finnish side don’t have any money. That certain side happens to be Honka. You all know the road that it takes players down, don’t you? Unpaid wages etc. These rumours are yet to be confirmed but it would certainly explain why they’re not spending money nowadays and why they’re selling players with more ease than usual. As well as Honka have done over the past few years in the Veikkausliiga, it’s easy to forget that they’re not actually a big club, unlike HJK Helsinki or Inter Turku, for example. They’ve grown a lot but they’re still not a big side and perhaps that has been a contributing factor; who knows?
That may be on their minds, if indeed it is true. From a footballing perspective, this remains a very hard game for Honka. Basically, Veikkausliiga sides just don’t fear them nowadays. Honka do play attractive football but it’s quite easy to stop nowadays. Honka haven’t won for four games and yet they’ve had a lead in three of those games but have been unable to defend it due to horrible defending. Take the game against VPS at home, for example. They weren’t playing brilliantly but they took the lead and that was enough, you know? It gets VPS out of their defensive approach and forces cracks to appear in their defence. Instead of capitalising on that, Honka allowed VPS more and more time on the ball and that inevitably led to a mistake from a set piece and Honka conceded. They were on the back foot from then too, with VPS having the lion’s share of the chances before eventually making it count and winning 1-2. VPS aren’t a better side than Honka; they were smarter than them on the day, though. Honka have no clue how to hold leads, how to defend, or how to pick themselves up from bad runs. They’re sitting ducks to the right opponent, basically.
Are JJK that opponent? Well…sometimes, yes. They’re still missing their influential target man Wusu but they’ve got a midfield that is capable of battering Honka here. JJK are horribly unpredictable a lot of the time as they like to concede ridiculous goals but also like to score copious amounts of them too. They’re a highly entertaining side if nothing else. Away from home, the only way to beat JJK is to score goals and although Honka are capable of that, I’m not to sure that they’ll be able to do it today with their morale having been hurt of late. JJK won their derby at KuPS before battering Haka in their last game so they’ve got a bit of momentum to build upon here. Gruborovics is as immense as ever although both Virtanen and Manninen have been ghosts this season, which explains why JJK have struggled domestically. Innanen is no Wusu but he’s got enough pace and experience to trouble a shoddy Honka defence today. If Wusu was fit then I’d probably take the outright JJK win here, to be honest. His absence does concern me, though.
Therefore, I’ve opted for the “safer” choice of laying Honka here at 9/10, which still has substantial value, in my eyes. We should see plenty of goals here but I’ve seen nothing lately to suggest that Honka are capable of winning this game.
Verdict: Lay FC Honka Espoo at 9/10.
Bayern Munich vs Mainz 05 – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
I’m not overly fond of handicapping Bayern because they’re usually criminally short odds for a side that is either brilliant or horrendous but I do like them a lot today.
I was extremely impressed with the resolve, the mental strength, and the finesse of Bayern against a good Stuttgart side in their first home game of the season. They won 0-3 at newly-promoted Greuther Furth on the opening day of their campaign and have bagged nine goals thus far and last season’s top goalscorer Gomez is still yet to play a game for them this season! Pizarro is a good target man alternative to Gomez and Mandzukic is already showing his potential in front of goal with two goals in two games. Muller, Robben, Kroos, and Ribery can make the chances for him so he’s not short of chances! They’ve really got an awesome midfield, Bayern – I’ve not even mentioned the unfit Schweinsteiger, Swiss wonderkid Shaqiri, or the traitorous bastard Javi Martinez yet either! Luis Gustavo and Tymoschuk mopping up the mess too? It’s a frightening midfield, to be frank. Their defence is just as dubious as ever, sadly, but they attack well enough for it to generally not matter and I think that’ll be the case today too.
Mainz 05 are usually hard to beat. They’ve got a good manager and they have very good organisation too. This season, though, they just look awful. I watched them host newly-promoted Greuther Furth in their last game and they were beaten 0-1 without much ceremony. I was appalled by their lack of idea in the final third, the ease with which they were penetrated on counter-attacks, and the lack of shots that they actually had on their opponents’ goal. Mainz 05 are still resilient and they will work hard but they offer so little in the final third that it’s hard to take them seriously against a side with such supreme firepower.
I genuinely think that we’ll see something of an annihlation here. Put yourself in Heynckes’ position; wouldn’t you want to get this game over and done with by half-time in order to rest players for the game with Valencia next week? I would. I expect Bayern to start the game strongly and score a number of goals to secure it and I don’t see Mainz 05 having a response. For me, there’s value on the -2 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamo – Pazzini anytime goalscorer at 4/5.
This bet is quite cheeky but it’s one I like a lot.
Pazzini was an Atalanta academy boy; they made him who he is today. They converted him and made him into a striker, which is the reason that he’s at AC Milan today. He owes them his career and unlike most clubs, Atalanta are one that commands the respect of their former players. I would be surprised to see him celebrate if he scores, basically.
However, I do expect him to score in this game. He’ll be confident following his “three” goals against Bologna (God only knows how as Bologna were the better side in that game by some distance!) and he’ll be motivated to do well against the blue-and-black of Bergamo. This is a derby of sorts, let’s not forget, so there is rivalry here. Defending is not a strength of Atalanta’s but attacking is so I won’t rule out a surprising scoreline here on the basis that AC Milan have looked far from good in any of their games thus far. However, Atalanta don’t defend well and they do like having players randomly sent off so the window of opportunity is there for Pazzini to prove his quality.
I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market but taking Pazzini to score at any time in this game appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Pazzini to score at any time at 4/5.
Dundee vs Motherwell – away win at evens.
Eh, I’d like to write more about this one but it comes down to a quality difference between these two sides. Motherwell have quality and Dundee don’t, in a nutshell. Dundee still haven’t worked out how to score goals in the SPL and with a superior Motherwell side now devoid of European competition to distract them, they really should have more than enough quality to win this one at evens.
Verdict: Motherwell to win at evens.
Antalyaspor vs Galatasaray – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Ah, you’re going to see a few tips like this in future, guys and girls! Galatasary losing Ujfalusi for a number of months means that their defence is even worse than normal. It’s no surprise that they were frantically trying to buy Kolo Toure from Manchester City following the injury to their Czech stalwart! However, they eventually settled for old Brazilian Cris from Olympique Lyonnais and he’ll certainly help fill the void. However, he doesn’t speak Turkish and he needs to gel with his team-mates so as far as I am concerned, this Galatasaray side is more than susceptible at the back. They’re still the best attacking side in the Super Lig and they will score goals for fun but I expect them to concede goals too, just as they did against Bursaspor lately.
In Bulut, Yilmaz, and Elmander, they have three of the most dangerous forwards in Turkey and everyone knows it. Still, playing at Antalyaspor has a nasty habit of levelling out the quality plain as many of the big sides frequently struggle to win here. That should be even more the case with Aissati now in their ranks, the tricky midfielder having moved to Antalyaspor from Ajax pre-season. Club legend Gokcek is in good form thus far and he should pose problems to a weak Galatasaray defence today too. Barring the needling of Inceman, I don’t see how Antalyaspor will stop Galatasaray from scoring goals here, however – they’re just too good at it.
As long as there are no unnecessary sending offs, we should see plenty of goals here. You do have to favour Galatasaray to win the game but this is a very tough away game so I won’t touch that market. Taking over 2.5 goals appeals to me a lot at 9/10 though.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre – Orban and Torassa are absent.
Colon de Santa Fe – Prediger is absent.
All Boys – Ahumada is absent.
Argentinos Juniors – Placente and J.Fernandez are absent. N.Fernandez, Sabia, Torren, and Laba are doubts.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – Ibanez is absent.
San Martin de San Juan – Alvarez and Pocrnjic are absent.
Racing Club Avellaneda – Farina and de Oliveira are absent.
Estudiantes De La Plata – Angeleri is a doubt.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent – Conte, Mareval, and Foket are absent.
Mechelen – De Petter is absent.
Cercle Brugge – Smolders is absent.
Lokeren – No absentees.
Lierse SK – De Wree is absent.
Anderlecht – Suarez, Kouyate, and De Sutter are absent.
OH Leuven – No absentees.
Racing Genk – Simaeys is absent.
Mons – Le Postollec is absent.
Waasland-Beveren – Cavens is absent. Lepoint is a doubt.
Zulte-Waregem – Serwy, Verboom, and Habibou are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense – Fred, Deco, Anderson, Wagner, Marcos Junior, Valencia, and Digao are absent. Leandro Euzebio returns.
Atletico Goianiense – Bida, Joilson, Adriano Pimenta, Felipe Brisola, Leonardo, and Rafael Cruz are absent. Ricardo Bueno is a big doubt after a fight with a supporter.
Sao Paulo – Douglas, Paulo Miranda, and Fabricio are absent. Canete, Denilson, Rhodolfo, and Luis Fabiano return.
Portuguesa – Leandro Silva and Heverton are absent. Valdomiro returns.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana – No absentees.
Chernomorets Burgas – Tavares and Mendes are absent. Trifonov and Baldzhiyski return.
Cherno More Varna – Yanev, Bergounssi, and Kamazola are absent. Bozhilov, Angelov, and Simeonov are doubts.
Botev Plovdiv – Karaslavov is absent. Vieira is a doubt.
Pirin Gotse Delchev – Panayotov and Georgiev are doubts. Kikarin and Demirov may debutse.
Slavia Sofia – Gaal, Matsui, and Lopez are absent. Juninho has left.
CSKA Sofia – Nuages, Benjelloun, and Platini are absent. Venkov, Kiriakidis, Tasio, Rodrigues, and Serginho may debutise.
Botev Vratsa – Caballero, Aneff, and Vicente may debutise. President resigned. Unstable club atm.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci – Matkovic is absent. Matos returns. Paradzikovic debutises.
Hajduk Split – Kis, Kukoc, Maglica, and Milovic are absent. Ruben Lima may debutise.
Inter Zapresic – No news.
Istra 1961 – Andelkovic and Horvat are absent.
Lokomotiva Zagreb – No news.
NK Zagreb – New boss – Bonacic.
Split – No news.
Zadar – No news.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen – Kolar, Duris, Pavlik, and Zeman are absent.
Sparta Prague – Keric and Brabec have left. Matejovsky is a doubt.
Slovacko – Heca, Kosut, Fujerik, and Kordula are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Opiela, Ondrejka, Zahustel, Smejkal, Rolko, and Chramosta are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – No absentees. New boss – Soukup.
Dukla Prague – No absentees.
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen – No news.
FC Nordsjaelland – No news.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn – Shimsko and Artjunin are absent.
Nomme Kalju – No absentees.
Flora Tallinn – Beglarisvili is absent.
Sillamae Kalev – Zahovaiko may debutise. Malinin is absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Tammilehto returns.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Wusu is absent. Linjala returns.
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu – Ramirez and Huovinen are absent.
Hameenlinna – Graciano, Hertsi, Mononen, and Pereira are absent. Vanderlei is a doubt.
PK-35 Helsinki – Kabashi, Karki, Raimi, and Gomez-Mattila are absent. Oravainen returns.
Jippo Joensuu – No news.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Peura, Turcios, Rivera, Tyystala, and Mika Lahtinen are absent. Obilor has left. Lahdenmaki returns. Forsman may debutise.
HiFK Helsinki – Antman, M.Kastrati, Tanner, Pyhala, and Ranta are absent.
Viikingit Helsinki – No news.
AC Oulu – Boss Malinen has left.
French Ligue 1:
Troyes – Bettiol is absent.
LOSC Lille – Kalou is absent. Debuchy may return.
Evian Thonon Gaillard – Khelifa, Bugnet, Durand, M’Madi, Rabiu, Sorlin, Salamone, Tie Bi, and Mongongu are absent. New boss – Dupraz.
Bastia – Bonnefoi, Cioni, El-Azzouri, Moizini, Ilan are absent.
OGC Nice – Fofana and Anin are absent.
Stade Brestois – Grougi, Martial, and Benschop are absent.
Saint-Etienne – Clerc and Zouma are absent.
Sochaux – Privat, Carlao, Dias, Cros, Lopy, Duplus, Butin, Daf, Mikari, and Prcic are absent.
Valenciennes – Massampu, Djuric, and Pujol are absent. Angoua may return.
Girondins de Bordeaux – Sane, Chalme, Bellion, Ben Khalfallah, Olimpa, Sacko, Biyogo-Poko, Poundje, and Traore are absent. Diabate and Gouffran return.
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich – Raeder, Contento, Alaba, and Gomez are absent.
Mainz 05 – Polanski and Mueller are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Owomoyela and Uksch are absent.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – No absentees.
Hannover 96 – Diouf, Pander, and Schulz are absent.
Werder Bremen – Stevanovic is absent.
Nurnberg – Hlousek, Mendler, and Franz are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
VfB Stuttgart – Audel, Didavi, Kuzmanovic, and Ibisevic are absent.
Fortuna Dusseldorf – Soares, Balogun, and Reisinger are absent.
Greuther Furth – Krauss, Zillner, Ohansa, and Fall are absent.
Schalke 04 – Hildebrand is absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Haifa – Roash is absent. Gluscevic returns.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – No absentees.
Hapoel Acre – Abu-Ria is absent. Ben-Dayan may debutise.
Bnei Sakhnin – Damahou has left.
Hapoel Ramat Gan – Chen is absent. Sidibe may debutise. Reuven, Yifrah, Ben-Simon, and Ben-Ami return.
Ironi Ramat Hasharon – Fernandes and Yitzhak are absent. Boss Tabak’s first game in charge.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Cohen is absent. Porokara and Ibinder may debutise.
Maccabi Netanya – No absentees.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Gordana, Abutbul are absent. Vermouth returns. Coach Shirazi is absent.
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – Hrepka and Baruch are absent. Fallach may debutise. Rali may feature.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Adeleye is absent. Nassar may feature.
Maccabi Haifa – Amasha, T.Cohen, Boccoli, and Davidovic are absent. N’Dluvo is a doubt. Buljat was released. Damahou may debutise. Keinan and Sharanov may feature.
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan – Robinho, Pato, Abate, Strasser, Didac Vila, Montolivo, and Muntari are absent.
Atalanta Bergamo – Schelotto, Radovanovic, Marilungo, Ferreira Pinto, Capelli, and Carmona are absent.
Palermo – Zahavi, Brienza, and Barreto are absent. Cetto and Giorgi are doubts.
Cagliari – Astori is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Sigthorsson, Enoh, Klaassen, Serero, and Boilesen are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Janssen, van Dijk, Barroilhet, and Jungschlager are absent.
VVV Venlo – Maenpaa, Reimerenk, Altheer, Linssen, and Maguire are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Loen and de Looijer are absent.
Willem II – Peters and Joachim are absent.
Twente Enschede – Fer, Kuiper, Boschker, Bulykin, Rendla, and Bjelland are absent.
Heerenveen – Amoah, Kum, and Papa are absent.
ADO Den Haag – Horvath is absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Mulder, Singh, Goossens, Te Vrede, and De Vrij are absent.
PEC Zwolle – Slot, Boer, Gravenbeek, van den Berg, and Ter Wielen are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Molde FK – Ekpo, Hovland, and Gatt are absent. Hussain is a doubt.
Haugesund – Maeland, Fevang, Haukas, and Andreasen are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Warsaw – Holota and Kielb are absent. Stokowiec still has touchline ban.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – Gusic is absent. Smolarek may debutise.
Lechia Gdansk – Pietrowski, Malkowski, Kostrzewa, Bajic, and Airapetian are absent.
Piast Gliwice – Jurado, Cuerda, Urban, Swierczok, and Lisowski are absent.
Ruch Chorzow – Panka, Sadlok, and Djokic are absent.
Korona Kielce – Lisowski, Malkowski, Szekeli, and Vukovic are absent. Korzym and Kuzera return.
Polish Liga 1:
Tychy 71 – No absentees.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No news.
Brzesko – Wieczorek and Jacek are absent. Smolka, Pawlowciz, Oswiecimka, and Trznadel are doubts.
Polonia Bytom – Sinclair is absent.
Dolcan Zabki – Matuszek and Grzelak are absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – Cichy and Szufryn are absent. Pieczara may debutise.
LKS Lodz – No news.
Bogdanka Leczna – No news.
Arka Gdynia – Sobieraj and Radzewicz are absent.
Flota Swinoujscie – Spiaczka is absent.
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias – Vitinho and Muntean are absent. Bus has left.
Concordia Chiajna – No absentees.
Otelul Galati – Ilie, Didi, and Sirghi are absent.
Viitorul Constanta – Alex Iacob and Sin have left.
Rapid Bucharest – Rui Duarte is absent.
Gloria Bistrita – No absentees.
Russian Premier League:
Lokomotiv Moscow – Corluka, Guilherme, and Glushakov are absent.
Rubin Kazan – Arlauskis and Bocchetti are absent.
Kuban’ Krasnodar – No absentees.
Spartak Moscow – Welliton, Pareja, de Zeeuw, Gatagov, and Parshivlyuk are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone – C.Davidson and a number of unnamed players are doubts with a virus.
Celtic – Samaras is absent.
Dundee – Grassi, O’Donnell, Riley, McBride, Finnigan, Stewart, and McCluskey are absent.
Motherwell – Saunders is absent.
Hibernian – No absentees.
Kilmarnock – Tesselaar, Bell, Hay, and Heffernan are absent.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Ross and Hogg are absent.
Aberdeen – Naysmith and Milsom are absent.
St.Mirren – McGregor and Adam are absent. Dummett and McLean are doubts.
Hearts – No absentees.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona – Muniesa, Cuenca, and Abidal are absent.
Getafe – Abraham is absent.
Sevilla CF – Diawara, Reyes, Kondogbia, and Perotti are absent.
Real Madrid – Coentrao is absent.
Malaga – Fernandez and Baptista are absent.
Levante – Ibarra and Karabelas are absent.
Valencia CF – Canales and Banega are absent.
Celta de Vigo – No absentees.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborg – Bedoya, Atta, Sorum, Hanstveit, and Uronen are absent.
GIF Sundsvall – No news.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No absentees.
GAIS Goteborg – Celik and Wanderson have left. Bassombeng, Angus, Lundgren, and Tamandi are absent. Ekunde, Gustafsson, and Edstrom return.
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa – Buyuk, Ernst, and Yaman are absent.
Gaziantepspor – Ibricic is absent.
Antalyaspor – Torun and Kodyo are absent.
Galatasaray – Ujfalusi, Yildirim, Baytar, and Baros are absent.
Bursaspor – Aziz is absent. Ipek and N’Diaye are doubts.
Karabukspor – Shelton, Ucar, and Jahic are doubts.