TFT Issue 511!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Sporting Braga vs CFR Cluj – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Braga and CFR Cluj. Neither side are unfamiliar with this level of football over the past few years and there are a number of ex-players/managers of each side on show tonight so there’s a bit of familiarity here.
However, as one of my esteemed colleagues eloquently put it, this game should be very much like Braga vs someone like Academica in the Liga Sagres. Cluj do have a lot of Portuguese players, it’s true, but most wouldn’t make their way into the top clubs due to simply not being good enough.
Braga have a good attacking coach in Peseiro, who has already demonstrated that hsi qualities lie only within Portuguese football. Braga have already delivered two good Champions League displays this season against Serie A’s Udinese although they were noted for their inability to convert their chances in those games. That said, Udinese are a very stubborn and well-organised side so I won’t be too critical of Braga there.
What I would say is that unlike a lot of Portuguese clubs that I could mention, Braga work really, really hard. Subsequently, no side that ever plays at the AXA Stadion against them has an easy game. If you add hard work to a side that is blessed with naturally skilful players and an extremely experienced side then you have a side that simply isn’t easy to play against at any stage. The amount of sides that get frustrated with Braga’s ability to pass and move or play the long ball and use their pace to good advantage is beyond count. I distinctly remember Dynamo Kiev having a nightmare against them although I don’t really recall if that was last year or the year before, to be honest! It’s very hard to play against Braga, in a nutshell, especially with Custodio and Viana dictating play from the centre of the park whilst Micael mops up any mess. Midfield is the core of their game but the likes of Alan and Paulo Cesar are also capable attackers. Losing Lima wasn’t ideal; Eder will have to step up quickly, I guess. There’s a lot of experience in this side, however, so I doubt it’ll be a tough transition. Braga attack and score goals; that’s what they’re best at and that’s what they’ll do tonight. Only Shakhtar Donetsk have actually won here since Braga started playing Champions League football with Arsenal, Celtic, and Sevilla amongst the casualties in previous seasons. I would not underestimate Braga!
Cluj are an interesting side but I wouldn’t go much further than that. They’re a dangerous side to underestimate but at the same time, they’re their own worst enemy. They concede stupid goals against almost all opponents in Liga 1 due to them scoring and then thinking that they can defend, which they can’t. They do have a good level of firepower, especially with the pace of Sougou. However, they miss their actual goalscorers today in Ronny and the highly doubtful Kapetanos, which is far from ideal. Essential defender Maftei is suspended and one of his fellow defenders Ivo Pinto is a doubt today. Cluj will no doubt work hard here for obvious reasons but they lack the firepower and the defensive structure to avoid defeat here, in my opinion. I’m sure Cluj will have lots of inside information today from ex-Braga player Luis Alberto but it’s one thing to be aware of a problem and another to actually be able to deal with it. Cluj’s “men behind the ball” tactic is nowhere near as effective as Otelul Galati’s was last season as their business is scoring goals. I’d be surprised to see them do that tonight, though – there are too many elements that oppose them in that field.
For me, the value has to be in Braga beating the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6. Braga will have to be really wasteful to not win the game overall and Cluj will have to be very good for the handicap to not be beaten.
Verdict: Sporting Braga to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Additional games
LOSC Lille vs BATE Borisov – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Two sides that struggle to score goals? Under 2.5 goals all day long for me. Lille are from the better league but there’s little quality gap in this one, in my opinion. BATE are one of the most experienced sides in the Champions League as they’re in it every single year. They’ve got an experienced coach in Goncharenko and they know how to frustrate sides as well as how to counter-attack and take their chances. BATE are a side to never underestimate, basically. They’ve been around for a long time and they’ve pissed off better sides than Lille before now. Still, unlike most sides, Lille do work very hard and there’s enough in their ranks for them to claim a valuable three points today. Still, neither side excels at goalscoring as both know that the chances of them winning games without a clean sheet is slender due to their lack of firepower. Lille without Hazard and Cole are a different side whilst BATE often have to rely on the fitness of Rodionov and the set pieces of Renan. I just see very little chance of this one exploding into a goal-fest, to be honest. Famous last words, I’m sure, but a 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 scoreline look the most likely outcomes here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Manchester United vs Galatasaray – over 3 goals at 9/10.
Well, as a Manchester United fan, I’d love to believe that we’ll blow Galatasaray away today. Taking off the rose-tinted spectacles just for a quick polish, however, I am not so sure that it’ll be as straightforward as that.
There are some clubs that can only be coached by one man. Galatasatary are one of those clubs. You’ll have noted how shit they were over the past few seasons compared to how good they are now. The reason for that is because they’ve brought Fatih Terim back as their manager and he knows precisely how to play the board, the fans, and the team. Subsequently, you have one of the most dangerous Galatasaray sides that you’ll have seen over the past ten to twelve years playing tonight. They’ve got four strikers in their squad that would walk into any other club in Turkey and a number of them would make it on the continent too. They’ve got experience, composure, and are very dangerous on counter-attacks. In a nutshell, I do think that Galatasaray can score here. That said, their defence will concede against almost every side that they face in this tournament now that Ufalusi is out for a long time. They’ve brought Cris in but it’s basically repairing a roof with a piece of plastic; it’s going to break at some stage!
Bluntly put, I’ve not liked United’s style in Europe for a year now. I’d happily argue the case with anyone that United played one half of good football in last season’s Champions League and thoroughly deserved to be knocked out. Yes, United rested players but that wasn’t what concerned me; it was our complete naivety in every area, our lack of effort, and most of all the lack of homework done on all of our opponents. We looked clueless in breaking down Otelul (that’s the only way Otelul can play so God knows why we didn’t invent something beforehand to damage them!), ineffectual against a Benfica side that frankly kept the ball better than we did, and awful against a hard-working Basel side who simply took their chances better than us. I don’t blame the team selection; I genuinely think that our whole footballing philosophy at that time did not suit the Champions League. Does it now? I don’t honestly know; we’ll have to wait and see. United made good signings pre-season and we have welcomed back some key players in Fletcher and half of our defence! Fergie says he’ll play a stronger side but it worries me how easily European sides tend to deal with United nowadays. Almost all the sides that come to Old Trafford in Europe end up scoring or very nearly scoring goals. United have not got going properly yet this season and although our finishing is strong, our defence is still not 100% fit with Ferdinand and Vidic looking a bit short positionally (unusually) and with pace causing a problem against Ferdinand.
I do expect United to win the game, one way or another – we have an awful lot of experience in this tournament. However, I don’t think it’ll be as convincing as everyone makes out unless United really turn it on. Galatasaray’s defence is simply not good enough for this level and they will concede goals here. I wouldn’t be surprised if they scored one or two themselves, though. For me, taking over 3 goals is the way forward here.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 9/10.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Nordsjaelland – home win to nil at 4/5.
This one is not the usual Shakhtar Donetsk style bet but I’ll explain my thinking behind it.
Basically, what we have here are two possession sides. Both are lethal with the ball and awful without it. Defending is not a strong point of Shakhtar’s but they do have a lot of European experience nowadays and they know how to keep the ball at the Donbass Arena; they’ve done it enough times against better sides than UCL virgins Nordsjaelland!! I’m not a fan of taking them with heavy handicaps, though – they simply don’t convert enough of their chances for that type of bet to appeal to me.
Taking them to win to nil, though – that’s an interesting one. They’re not solid defensively unless Chygrynskyi is playing, which he is here, I believe – hurrah! Defending is not an essential part of their game but they’ve got some solid players in their ranks. There’s bags of experience in this side and I expect them to dominate possession as a result. Without Bjelland at the back, Nordsjaelland have looked very vulnerable and I expect that to continue in Ukraine tonight against a very good Shakhtar side. Nordsjaelland are dangerous with the ball but given that I don’t expect them to much have it, logic leads me into taking Shakhtar to win to nil at 4/5.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win to nil at 4/5.
Bayern Munich vs Valencia CF – both sides to score at 5/6.
Normally, the Bayern handicap would probably appeal to me as Valencia aren’t the side that they once were. That said, I’ve watched them a few times this season already and I’ve been really impressed with what Pellegrino is doing with them tactically. I’ve genuinely never seem them play as effectively as this – well, not for many years, as least. They’ve still got that age-old Valencia trait of conceding a goal from nowhere and shitting themselves for the remainder of the game but they look much more dangerous and composed on the counter-attack. Soldado is very much an accomplished striker nowadays and Jonas’ pace and finesse is very hard to handle. There’s plenty of grit in this Valencia side although the continued absence of Canales and Banega raises question marks over their ability to score enough goals to win tricky games like this. I expect them to make life hard for Bayern, though – at least until they concede their first stupid goal!
Bayern are not so good at defending themselves, truth be told. If you get at them then they concede heavily. The trouble is that most sides aren’t good enough to get at them, especially in the Bundesliga. How do you handle a side with such a phenomenal midfield, really? I don’t have an answer to that question. Their defending is weak, though – pace and general wingplay tends to see them struggling and I think that Valencia can harm them here, especially if they demonstrate their usual strength of being comfortable on the ball.
I expect Bayern to ultimately edge it but I wouldn’t be surprised if Valencia caused an upset here. For me, the value is in taking both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Chelsea vs Juventus – both sides to score at 5/6.
Chelsea are the reigning champions of the Champions League and they have more than enough quality players to demonstrate just why that is. I’d be one of the first to say that luck helped them out a lot last season but so what? Luck means nothing without hard work and almost no side worked harder than Chelsea did last season in the Champions League.
Still, that makes them public enemy number one this year and I don’t know how they’ll handle that. They’ve done well with putting the ball in the net so far this season but they’re still struggling at the back, in my opinion. Atletico Madrid gave them a taster of what is awaiting them in the Champions League by humbling them 4-1 in the European Super Cup and although Juventus are not Atletico Madrid, it did show that Chelsea still have a lot to learn in Europe.
Chelsea are still gelling their new players, after all – it’s only to be expected that there will be teething problems. Anyone who says that Torres, Mata, and Hazard won’t produce goals is a moron, however. They will score goals and against a Juventus side that looks looser at the back than it should, I think that they will find the net to please the Stamford Bridge faithful tonight. Juventus don’t like sides that keep the ball and run at them. In fact, nobody likes that!! What I mean is that Juventus, like most Italian sides, tend to struggle more than most with it as they’re not used to not having the ball themselves.
Still, I do expect Juventus to trouble Chelsea tonight. They’ve been waiting for their return to the Champions League for a long, long time and that may well show here. They’re not short of firepower in the slightest with Vucinic and Matri, especially not with Quagliarella and Giovinco as “backup”!! There’s an awful lot of steel in midfield in Asamoah, Marchisio, and Vidal when it comes to protecting the timeless Pirlo and there’s plenty of spirit, too. Juventus love to get booked for over-zealous challenges and I expect a bit of that here too. Still, this side does score goals very well and there are some very classy players in their ranks. I think Chelsea may have a harder game here than is anticipated.
For me, the only way to approach this one is to take both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Sporting Braga – Carlao, Elderson, Baiano, and Michel are absent. Lima has left.
SL Benfica – Luisao, Maxi Pereira, Carlos Martins are absent. Witsel and Javi Garcia have left. Jardel, Miguel Vitor, Andre Gomes, and Andre Almeida return.
Galatasaray – Ujfalusi is absent. Elmander is a doubt.
Manchester United – Rooney is absent. van Persie is a doubt.
Bayern Munich – Raeder and Gomez are absent. Robben and Ribery return.
CFR Cluj – Deac, Vass, Ronny, Sare, and Maftei are absent. Ivo Pinto, Valente, and Kapetanos are doubts.
Spartak Moscow – Welliton, Pareja, Gatagov, de Zeeuw, and Parshivlyuk are absent.
Juventus – Pepe and Padoin are absent.
LOSC Lille – Rozehnal and Bruno are absent. Kalou and Basa return.
FC Nordsjaelland – No absentees.
Celtic – Kayal, Ledley, McCourt, and Twardik are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague – No absentees.
Teplice – Hosek is absent. Keric and Marek Jarolim may debutise.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole – Valskis may feature.
Tauras Taurage – No news.
Polish Liga 1:
Bogdanka Leczna – No news.
Warta Poznan – Trochim is absent.
Kolejarz Stroze – Cichy is absent.
LKS Lodz – Osinski and Kuklis are absent. Papikyan returns.
Nieciecza – Skolorzynski, Kaczmarczyk, Biskup, and Jarecki are absent.
Stomil Olszytn – Baranowski is absent.
Tychy 71 – Sobas and Masternak are absent. Maczynski is a doubt.
Miedz Legnica – No news.
Olimpia Grudziadz – No news.
Cracovia Krakow – Nitbazonkiza and Jarabica are absent. No away fans allowed today.
Flota Swinoujscie – No news.
Katowice – Kruczek, Farkas, and Chwalibogowski are absent.
Polonia Bytom – No news.
Arka Gdynia – Radzewicz and Kuklis are absent. Sobieraj returns.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – No news.
Dolcan Zabki – Grzelak and Matuszek return.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Aleksander is absent.
Brzesko – Jacek is absent. Smolka is a big doubt. Pawlowciz, Oswiecimka, and Trznadel may return.