TFT Issue 512!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona – over 3 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in northern Spain between Athletic Bilbao and Ironi Kiryat Shmona of Israel.
So – most people think this will be a dominant home win, judging by the comments that we’re seeing. To be fair, that’s probably the most likely outcome although I think you’re crazy if you take it.
There are two things that Athletic bring to each game; the ability to score four or more and the ability to concede against anyone. They play a superb passing game and tend to leave their opponents dazed and confused, more often than not. This side was engineered to score goals and Mr Bielsa has fine-tuned that remarkably well over the last twelve months.
Interestingly enough, it looks like Bielsa and Llorente are best friends again now. Bielsa brought Llorente on in Barcelona against Espanyol lately and made an instant impact, bailing out Los Leones from another disappointing defeat. I don’t know if he’ll start tonight or not but the mere fact that he’s in content should really concern Ironi Kiryat Shmona. That said, Isma Lopez and Aritz Aduriz are doing just fine as it is, truth be told. Llorente brings something to the Athletic attack that neither of those two have but still, it’s not really Athletic’s attacking that is the problem. Muniain is a big doubt for today’s game so I don’t know if he’ll play but Ibai Gomez or Oscar de Marcos can play in his stead; his absence doesn’t concern me for this particular game.
Where Athletic fall down is their horrendeous defending. Bielsa has come out lately and stated that it’s his fault that the side are defending so badly. Well, of fucking course it’s your fault, Bielsa – playing a back four with two actual defenders is always going to cause problems, isn’t it? Just look at their UEFA Europa League squad that they’ve named! There’s one recognised right-back and one recognised left-back in the whole squad. I like to believe players can be flexible etc. but that just takes the piss. Truth is that Amorebieta isn’t match fit yet, Gurpegi is not a centre-back, and Athletic’s full-backs are awesome going forward but not so good at tracking back. Subsequently, it really isn’t very hard to score against them for…well, anyone.
I saw rumours that Athletic’s boss Bielsa will rest players today. This idea amuses me as Bielsa won’t rest players unless their legs fall off. Just take a peek at their teams for last season; they named pretty much the same squad for all of the games in all of the competitions that they were in. That’s why they died at the end of the season. I think Bielsa is too stubborn to change his ways ahead of this season but I’m open to being surprised.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona aren’t as experienced as their hosts but they’ve show no nerves thus far. Indeed, they’ve looked very comfortable on the ball and a very good passing side. Much like the majority of people, I didn’t expect this fairytale to last very long but here Ironi Kiryat Shmona are, vying for a place in the next round of the UEFA Europa League! The Israeli side has nobody missing but their usual long-term casualties so they should be prepared to cause an upset here. Interestingly enough, the news coming from Israel suggests that Landau will adopt a bold 4-4-2 game at San Mames. Sorry, did I say “bold”? What I meant to say was “suicidal” – my bad! I don’t have any doubts over the quality of Ironi Kiryat Shmona, contrary to their early Ligat Ha’al form. Darko Tasevski has been around a long time and is a good playmaker whilst Hungarian forward Lencse has already demonstrated his worth since joining the Israeli champions on loan. This is quite a dangerous attacking side. However, if they’re playing a 4-4-2 here then they’re going to ship a lot of goals; that’s simply what happens here. Even Barcelona and Real Madrid rarely play a 4-4-2 at San Mames!
Still, Athletic are crazy enough to concede goals here whilst being awesome enough to score them so my pick of the day is to take over 3 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Viktoria Plzen vs Academica de Coimbra – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I am just a bit concerned that too many people are jumping on the Viktoria Plzen bandwagon here. I like this Czech outfit a lot and I’ll always give them their due respect at home. However, despite them being the more experienced side out of these two, there are other things that need to be taken into consideration.
The primary factor to be considered here is that Academica play the same style of football as Plzen do. Not just that, but in the Liga Sagres, Academica have to defend against that style almost every week. What Plzen are bringing to this game is not something that they’re new to, basically. Now, Plzen are good enough to score goals from their attacking style and I think that they will. After all, defending is not really a strength of Academica’s. However, I think Academica are more than capable of countering Plzen effectively here because they’re used to doing it so I do have to wonder about Plzen being as short as they are for this game.
Let’s also not forget that rapid winger Kolar is absent for this game and Slovakian attacking duo Duris and Bakos are both doubtful. If all three of those players are absent (which is admittedly unlikely) then Plzen should be at evens or above to win this game before I get interested. They’re very much an efficient unit of a side but some players are more important than others and I’d make a case for all three being integral parts of Vrba’s plans at all times.
Still, Plzen are a goalscoring side; they really should score goals here as a result. Academica can upset them, though. They’ve got lots of pace in their side, especially on counter-attacks. Young Cisse looks dangerous and old Edinho has been around long enough to know how to find the net here, something he’s done three times already in the Liga Sagres this season. I won’t entertain the idea of an away win here, purely because I believe that Plzen are too good at home to allow that to happen. However, Academica have a proven record of goalscoring away from home and despite their defensive issues, I do think that they’ll make this game closer than the bookies perceive it to be.
For me, the value is in taking over 2.5 goals at 6/5, thus allowing for Plzen to destroy Academica or for the Portuguese outfit to spring a surprise.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
SSC Napoli vs AIK Solna – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
It’s hard to fathom Europa League games sometimes because there are so many bloody rumours flying around that it becomes hard to konw what is real and what isn’t in regards to team news. The rumour regarding this game is that Napoli will rest a number of first-team players but at the time of writing this, I have not seen an actual evidence of this.
It seems likely enough, though. To be honest, even if they do rest players, I still thoroughly expect them to clear the handicap today. They’re facing a side that they’re simply an awful lot better than, in my view. It’s not Mazzarri’s style to defend and contain. It’s his style to deploy an attacking 3-5-2 and score an awful lot of goals along the way. Ok, let’s presume that they rest some of the big guns ala Cavani and Hamsik. If they were playing Juventus, I would be concerned for Napoli. They’re not playing Juventus, however – they’re playing AIK Solna from Sweden. There’s a pretty huge difference there and thus I’m quite sure that in the likely absence of their key players, the likely starters of Vargas, Insigne, Maggio, and Zuniga can do more than enough damage here in order for Napoli to win this game comfortably. It’s sometimes easy to forget how many quality players and internationals that Napoli have but I expect there to be a reminder tonight against AIK.
As it happens, I really, really like what AIK have done with their team lately. They’ve bought good players and they look a bloody good side because of it. I’ve seen no side dominate their bitter rivals Djurgarden like they did at weekend; it was extremely impressive to say the least. We’re talking about different levels here, though. It’s one thing to record a heroic result in Russia against a very hit-and-miss CSKA Moscow side but it’s another to take on the vociferous San Paolo crowd in Naples. Napoli will not stop attacking AIK and as good as AIK’s defence is – by Allsvenskan standards – I just don’t see how they’ll contain Napoli today. Their attacking pace can cause problems, admittedly, but they’ve got to find a way to contain Napoli before the AIK attack can start causing problems themselves and that’s where I anticipate them struggling.
If you’re concerned then wait for the line-ups or bet in-play but for me, Napoli really should be beating the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
VfB Stuttgart vs Steaua Bucharest – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
This one is arguably my riskiest bet of the day but it’s one I believe a lot in.
Stuttgart haven’t demonstrated it in the Bundesliga so far this season but they’re an attacking side, a goalscoring side. They need to have their two strikers Harnik and Ibisevic playing in order for them to be dangerous, however, which they’ve largely not had due to Ibisevic’s red card against Bayern Munich. No Ibisevic against Dusseldorf meant that Stuttgart didn’t score. You see what I mean? This side may not always win but they do always score goals whilst those two are on the field of play. The Bosnia-Herzegovina man and his Austrian strike partner should be reunited for tonight’s game, though. They’ve got the creativity of Hajnal and movement of Okazaki to call upon too so as long as Stuttgart put something into this game effort-wise, I can only see them winning the game.
This Steaua side is not the side that we have seen over the past couple of years in Europe. They’re weaker defensively but stronger in attack. Still, without the highly doubtful Tanase, it’s hard to say that their attack functions correctly. Steaua’s form in the Liga looks good on paper but when examined, you’ll note that they’ve only hammered poor sides whilst losing their only game against a good side this season 3-1, which was against Vaslui. Steaua are a capable side and they have a lot of history and support but even so; they’re not good enough at this level, in my opinion. They certainly have plenty of belief and tenacity but at this level, I do think that they’re out of their depth nowadays. Even poor sides in Romania have scored against Steaua this season without any great difficulty so if Stuttgart decide to turn it on, then I expect them to score a number of goals here. Steaua may score themselves but I don’t see them getting a result if Ibisevic and co. are in-form tonight.
For me, the value has to be on the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: VfB Stuttgart to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs PSV Eindhoven – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Could it be? Are we actually now on the cusp of seeing a Dnipro side that is capable of challenging Dynamo Kiev and Shakhtar Donetsk for the Ukrainian title? I’ll believe it when I see it but they’ve looked good so far. Perhaps Ramos’ words are finally sinking in, eh?
Anyway. The important thing to remember about Dnipro is that they’re extremely good in attack because of the different options that they have. Finisher Kalinic, the mobile Zozulya, the skilful Konoplyanka, the experienced Mateus Nascimento, the free-kicks of Aliev, the clever runs of Rotan – there’s a lot for opponents to handle, hence Dnipro usually scoring goals nowadays. There’s sufficient experience and quality in their attack to allow them to cause problems at will. Indeed, former Internacional midfielder Giuliano has never looked better than he does this season as he seems to have finally gotten used to the Ukraine. If he carries on pulling the strings the way he has then it won’t be long before he’s wearing the orange-and-black of Donetsk. There’s depth, there’s intelligence, and there’s composure in this Dnipro attack and I like that a lot. The continued absence of Inkoom in defence does weaken their defence, which didn’t really need weakening, did it? Mazuch is powerful but quite slow and Strinic is quite quick but a bit clumsy too. It’s really not a surprise that Dnipro scored six goals and conceded four against Slovan Liberec of the Czech Republic in the previous round, who haven’t appeared in Europe for some time. At times, a simple long ball caused Dnipro no end of trouble and it’s funny to see how they capitulate when things aren’t going their way.
Still, PSV could be upset by them today; they’re weak enough at the back to allow it. Old hand Advocaat knows how to get PSV playing properly, though, and they’ve done it more often than not already this season. Matavz, Mertens, Toivonen, Narsingh, Lens, Wijndalum, Strootman – you find me a side that can contain all of those offensive weapons and I’d be very impressed. It’s a no-brainer that PSV will score here if they apply themselves correctly, unlike in the game against FC Utrecht at weekend, in which they looked bloody awful. Attacking is their forté, though, which is handy because their defending is pretty poor to say the least. If PSV are put under any kind of pressure, especially down the flanks, then they’ll usually concede. Dnipro have plenty of weapons to utilise down the flanks so I think we’re in for an interesting game here.
Either way, I do fany over 2.5 goals at evens in this one as both sides have the capacity to score goals at will.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
FC Copenhagen vs Molde FK – over 2.5 goals at evens.
This game gives me the opportunity to introduce the term “Viking derby”. How cool does that sound?!
Anyway. I like goals in this game, to be blunt! FC Copenhagen look rejuvenated under Jacobs; I’d even go as far as to say that they look comfortable with the Belgian schemer at the helm. Unsurprisingly, Jacobs has brought his cavalier approach to defending with him from Anderlecht, hence FC Copenhagen now conceding goals against…well, everyone. Their attack looks varied and dangerous, however, which I like. The pace of Nicolai Jorgensen, the skill of Abdellaoue, the experience of Santin, and the finesse of wonderkid Cornelius make this FC Copenhagen attack a lot more potent than it looked at the start of the season. Indeed, with N’Doye having left, it was hard to see how FC Copenhagen would cope but there’s your answer! If Cornelius continues to score goals with such composure then it won’t be long before one of the bigger German clubs signs him, I’m sure. I still find FC Copenhagen a shade short in midfield – barring Bolanos – when it comes to making things happen. Still, they’re a comfortable side when it comes to passing the ball and they’ve got the individuals in the final third that are required to wreak havoc on the opposition’s penalty area and that’s important here. They’ll break upon Molde FK’s shoddy defence like water upon rock and I think they’ll do a substantial amount of damage too.
Still, whenever I’ve seen Molde FK playing in Europe this season, they’ve always impressed me. Realistically, they shouldn’t have gone out of the UEFA Champions League against Basel; only a tame penalty from club legend Magne Hoseth in the dying minutes prevented Molde FK from progressing so I refuse to underestimate Solskjaer’s talented side. Much like their hosts, Molde FK also concede stupid goals although to a far more dangerous level. Impressively, they can match FC Copenhagen’s firepower with Angan (when he’s not forgetting that his team-mates exist), Berget, Gatt, Eikrem, Berg Hestad, Hoseth, and Hussain. They’re all very capable attacking players and they’ve always shown great composure in Europe this season, which is something that I expect to see more of today. There’s enough innovation in midfield for them to really cause Copenhagen problems today and although the hosts could and probably should beat them, I certainly won’t be backing them to do so, especially not at such ridiculously short odds.
There are a couple of “insiders” for this game, incidentally. Diouf is back at Molde after a spell with FC Copenhagen and may feature here. I don’t know if he’s eligible to do so but he knows the FC Copenhagen side well. Similarly, Abdellaoue has played with Valerenga Oslo and Tromso before FC Copenhagen and he’ll know this Molde side quite well too. With all of the above taken into consideration, taking over 2.5 goals looks an interesting choice at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Twente Enschede vs Hannover 96 – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
This one is easily my cheekiest tip of the day but I like it an awful lot.
Twente are the bigger side here, at least by modern-day standards. I can’t remember the last time that they played like it, though. They’re such a horribly mundane side to watch, Twente. Unlike most Eredivisie sides, this Twente outfit doesn’t play entertaining attacking football other than every blue moon or when they’re forced into it. They’ve got the personnel to cause any side problems in this competition but they’ve not looked capable of doing that in some time. The absence of Fer today is a huge blow for Twente’s attacking prospects and indeed from a leadership perspective too. Obviously, Chadli and Tadic are very capable players whilst Castaignos is a dangerous finisher on his day but these three are yet to fully gel and it shows. Fer is more important than all three are, for my money, and that makes Twente today an interesting side. They won 2-6 at Willem II in their last game but to be honest, I’m pretty sure that most of us on TFT could give Willem II a good game this season; they look awful! One opponent of Twente’s that sticks in my head from last season was Schalke 04, incidentally, who pulverised Twente in both legs although it only showed in the result of the game in Germany. I think Twente may find a similar game here, although admittedly Hannover 96 lack the personnel of Schalke 04.
Still, Hannover 96 are a very dangerous side, particularly this season. I rated their attack a lot in the last Bundesliga campaign but it looks to have somehow gone up a level with Ya Konan, Schlaudruff, and especially Sobiech causing no end of problems in the final third, so much so that we’ve not seen Abdellaoue and Diouf much this season and those two were excellent in the last campaign! Andreasen’s return to fitness has clearly done Hannover 96 the power of good with his box-to-box approach being extremely pivotal in their results thus far. The signing of Huszti from Zenit St.Petersburg was clearly an inspired one; he’s already made an awful lot of Hannover 96’s goals this season. They’ve become a bit more samba at the back – what else would you expect when you sign a Brazilian centre-back?! – but they’ve fused the confidence and hunger of last season with the finesse and attacking threat that they always had at home and subsequently Hannover 96 have been scoring goals against everyone at every ground! I really like their zesty and gutsy approach for a side that frankly isn’t all that good. I think their fresh and innovative style is the last type of side that a droll Twente side will want to face today and as good as Twente can be when it suits them, I think that they’ll really struggle in this one.
For me, the value has to be on the away win with draw no bet cover at 7/5.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Maribor – Arghus is absent.
Panathinaikos – Karagounis has left.
Steaua Bucharest – Tanase is a big doubt.
Viktoria Plzen – Kolar and Pavlik are absent. Bakos, Duris, and Zeman are doubts.
Sparta Prague – Matejovsky is a doubt.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Muniain and Perez are doubts.
Atletico Madrid – Falcao, Arda, Gabi, Godin, Tiago, and Luis are absent.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Gordana and Abutbul are absent. Shiraz returns to the touchline.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Solari and Gerzicich are absent.
Academica de Coimbra – Joao Real, Carlos Saleiro, Marcos Paulo, N’Gal, Cleiton, and Helder Cabral are absent.
Maritimo Funchal – Ricardo, Brigido, Rodrigo Antonio, and Ruben Ferreira are absent. Hassan, Ibrahim, Marcio Rozario, Joao Diogo, and Wellington return.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – No news.
FC Copenhagen – Wiland returns.
VfB Stuttgart – Molinaro and Hoogland are absent. Tasci is a doubt.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No news.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – No absentees.
Hannover 96 – No news.
Fenerbahce – Krasic, Kuyt, and Kesimal are absent. Korkmaz and Topal are doubts. Sow returns.
PSV Eindhoven – Pieters is absent.
Twente Enschede – Fer, Bulykin, Kuiper, Rendla, and Bjelland are absent.
Club Brugge – Trickovski, Zimling, Stenman, Larsen, Meuier, Donh, and Rafaelov are absent.
Racing Genk – Hubert is absent.
Girondins de Bordeaux – Maurice-Belay, Obraniak, Traore, Bellion, Chalme, Keita, Biyogo-Poko, N’Guemo, and Ben Khalfallah are absent.
Olympique de Marseille – Abdallah, Lucas Mendes, and Diawara are absent. Almatiano returns. Barton may debutise.
Olympique Lyonnais – Mvuemba, Bastos, and Gourcuff are absent.
Udinese – Barreto, Badu, Hertaux, and Muriel are absent. Ranegie may debutise. Basta is a doubt.
SSC Napoli – Aronica, Britos, and Inler are absent.
Internazionale – Palacio, Chivu, Stankovic, Mariga, Obi, Mudingayi, and Jonathan are absent.
Lazio – Rocchi, Brocchi, Radu, and Konko are absent.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai – Grigatis is absent.
Dainava – No news.