TFT Issue 516!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
IFK Goteborg vs GAIS Goteborg – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan derby between IFK Goteborg and GAIS Goteborg. Over the years, it’s fair to say that the bigger Goteborg derby is played out between IFK and Hacken but this one is a derby nonetheless.
IFK Goteborg have been a real disappointment this season. Consider that they’ve got a top four squad and that they’re just three points clear of the Allsvenskan relegation play-off place. It’s not ideal, is it? Still, it helps us out today as it gives them motivation and motivation is something that they usually struggle with. When they play well, they’re capable of scoring three or four goals, as bitter rivals Elfsborg Boras found out lately, losing their key game 2-1 at IFK Goteborg. However, if IFK Goteborg don’t show up then you’ll see another horrendous display, such as their 3-0 defeat at Kalmar FF.
Now, I’d argue that it wouldn’t take much to improve IFK Goteborg’s displays, hence their league placing. However, re-signing former centre-back Bjarsmyr has added some organisation at the back, which helps Angelarna maintain at least a bit of composure. Icelandic left-back Jonsson returns today so IFK’s back four should be at its maximum.
Attacking is where IFK Goteborg excel, though. Hysen has not been at his best this season but he’s a real match-winner for them so should never be underestimated. Curiously enough, it’s Selakovic who has been more of a match-winner for Angelarna this season. IFK have plenty of options in their attack, though – they can use Daniel Sobralense, Gerzic, Salomonsson, and Allansson all vying with Selakovic for a place. They do miss the departed Sana, of course, but midfield is one area that they can afford to lose players. Up front, brute Stiller and pacey Soder vy for a starting place with Hysen so there are goals though. IFK Goteborg simply have to work hard and keep that cohesion going and they’re capable of beating any side in Sweden.
GAIS Goteborg just look fed up of life right now, to be honest. They’re fully aware that they’ll be playing Superettan football next season and are doing nothing to try and regain the support of their fans. They’ve not won for seventeen Allsvenskan games now and haven’t deserved to either! They’ve scored one goal in their last seven away games so it’s not hard to see why they’re struggling.
The club star Wanderson hasn’t had a great season, hence the demise of GAIS Goteborg. His move to Helsingborg fell through a while ago but GAIS must be regretting that now as they plummet into financial despair, fully aware that Wanderson leaving for FK Krasnodar on loan will barely be anything more than a drop in the ocean as far as their financial problems go. Celik has already gone too and I doubt he’ll be the last, either.
Big brute Ijeh is their only remaining striker. He’s been around a while but has zero mobility to capitalise on a high IFK Goteborg defence line. Romarinho can cause problems but he’s not good enough to be a one-man team, I’m afraid. Ayarna can be a threat but we’re just scraping the barrel here, really. Regular defender Gustafsson is absent for this derby and given that GAIS can’t defend anyway, this looks set to be a bleak derby for GAIS.
For me, there surely must be value on taking IFK -1 AH at 4/5 as long as they apply themselves correctly.
Verdict: IFK Goteborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Anzhi Makhachkala – both sides to score at 5/6.
Alaniya may be built on money but they’re like a breath of fresh air in the Russian Premier League. This side reminds me of the effect that Blackpool had in the English Premier League or that Rayo Vallecano de Madrid had in the Primera Liga. They’re sides that don’t fear bigger sides and will readily attack them to score goals and try to win games. It’s caused problems for the majority of their opponents and although they looked well out of their depth against CSKA Moscow lately, I do have a lot of respect for Alaniya. The fact is that Priskin and Danilo Neco are very hard to play against and this side knows how to find the net. They’ve scored in all but one of their Premier League games thus far and I expect to see them do the same again today.
Anzhi are obviously the better side here but they struggle to show it on the road. They’ve only just come back from a tough game in Italy against Udinese so fatigue may be a factor here. When playing away from home, Anzhi look sluggish and ineffectual, more often than not. They play a game that is not designed to entertain but to contain and win with efficiency rather than flambuoyancy. The problem with Anzhi is that they concede goals in their away games and thus their gameplan is immediately requiring a fresh approach, which is never ideal. They’ve shipped at a decent Krylya Sovetov Samara, at a CSKA Moscow side that outplayed them, and against an improving Rostov-na-Donu. Should Anzhi be conceding in all of those games? Not if they’re serious about their title challenge, no. They’re fortunate today in the sense that Alaniya are poor in defence and that old holding midfielder Semberas misses out because Anzhi should be able to create enough chances to win this game. Can they keep Alaniya out, though? Based on what I’ve seen so far this season, I don’t think so.
For me, the value is in taking both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla CF – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Taking on Deportivo at the Riazor in Galicia is a task that no side enjoys. Even heavyweights Barcelona and Real Madrid struggle here, the latter notoriously so with something crazy like one win from their last twenty-five visits. Sevilla don’t usually enjoy their visits here, either, with the Andaluscians having won just once in their last four Primera Liga visits.
Still, based on what they’ve shown so far this season, perhaps the time has come for Sevilla to get three points at the intimidating Riazor. Deportivo play with plenty of spirit and tenacity but they’re not packed full of quality as they once were, it has to be said. Neither are Sevilla, in all honesty, but they’ve looked very disciplined under Michel and that’s important here. You cannot lose your composure at this stadium or you’ll be put to the sword; it really is that simple. Sevilla have looked dogged, well-organised, and effective on counter-attacks this season and I like that. They’ve acknowledged that they’re not the side that they once were and their work-rate indicates that they’re prepared to start from scratch to turn things around. They’ve ditched a lot of their stars in favour of the hard-working players and it’s done them the power of good. They’ve only conceded two goals in four games so full credit to them. Any side with Negredo and Navas in their ranks will be a threat on the counter-attack and with Deportivo’s defence being their weakest area, I wouldn’t rule out the away win tonight.
Still, it’s a braver man than me who’d go against Deportivo here. Quality and depth are two problems for Deportivo this season but their starting eleven is a threat when it’s allowed to be. Riki and Nelson Oliveira are a budding attack duo for Deportivo and with the right service, they will be a threat here. However, I do question about the link between midfield and attack when you consider that Camunas is absent tonight, which is far from ideal. Aguilar has looked good in front of the back four; he’ll be integral here if Deportivo are to handle Sevilla here. I’m not sure Deportivo have enough to create chances for their forward two here, though, as good as veteran Valeron unquestionably is, even at thirty-seven years of age. They’re not the best at the back, Deportivo, but they’ve got experience and Sevilla are no longer a side that will all-out attack them so I don’t think they’ll suffer too much here.
What does concern me is that both sides possess plenty of temperamental players and thus cards are always on the agenda. Hopefully there won’t be any unfortunate reds here or this bet will be in real trouble. However, given the newfound solidarity of Sevilla and the missing creativity of Deportivo, I think that taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is the way to approach tonight’s Primera Liga game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Helsingborg vs Malmo FF – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
This year’s Allsvenskan title race is one of the most exciting that I can remember! Surprisingly enough, Helsingborg aren’t really in it but there are four sides that are and one of them is Malmo FF. Now, given that Elfsborg Boras failed to win at home and AIK Solna failed to hold their lead in yesterday’s action, a win for Malmo FF today would take them joint top of the league with BK Hacken Goteborg and Elfsborg Boras, which they’d love!
However, as their bitter rivals, I would say that Helsingborg are as likely to allow Malmo to take those points as a lion would be to take away its freshly-caught meal. In fact, I’d wager that Helsingborg would do their utmost to prevent a Malmo win here and you know what? They might just manage it.
I’ll be blunt here; I’m not a huge fan of Helsingborg this year. They’ve looked boring and predictable as hell for almost the whole campaign this year. However, they’ve suddenly burst into life over the past few weeks and I’ve actually enjoyed watching them. Signing Bedoya and Accam (earlier than they intended to) has really brightened up a stale Helsingborg attack. I was concerned about their ability to score goals with Finnbogason bailing out on their alleged deal and signing for Heerenveen instead but new Serbian forward Durdic has bagged four goals in three games and Alvaro Santos is always a threat so I think Helsingborg have acted appropriately. Will Helsingborg be tired from their trip to Spain last week? Possibly – only Elfsborg Boras and Malmo FF are capable of fielding two squads in the Allsvenskan. There’s a newfound belief in themselves, though, and I fancy Helsingborg to be inspired enough to piss off their rivals here.
That said, Malmo realistically have to be considered to be the better side here. They’ve not been at their best in recent times but they’re grinding out those priceless wins and that’s what counts. Rantie needs to realise that he’s not the only person in the Malmo attack once in a while and Larsson needs to deliver a killer touch but aside from that, Malmo look good enough going forward to cause problems. After all, they have ample support from Hamad, Wilton etc. in midfield. Malmo should be able to exploit Helsingborg today, especially with a large number of their defenders absent (Edman, Krafth, Atta, and Hanstveit). Still, Malmo also have a big problem in defence with Daniel Andersson not there to help out. He may be on the slow side nowadays but his experience was very much an essential part of the Malmo gameplan, especially on the road, where they’ve tended to lose their composure much more than they should. Yeah, Gefle didn’t punish Malmo but that’s Gefle; they’re awful in attack. Most other Allsvenskan sides will exploit Andersson’s continued absence and Helsingborg are more than capable of doing so. Still, Malmo are always capable of scoring goals and I think that they will against a decent Helsingborg side because that’s what Malmo do – they score goals. They have to, either way – nobody can afford to slip up in the title race.
For me, the value has to be in taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6 here as I expect both sides to score and feel that there’s enough absentees and motivation in this derby for someone to at least try to score a second goal! The last four meetings between these two sides have all gone over 2.5 goals, incidentally.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK – Bogelund and Augustinussen are absent.
Esbjerg – Rosenorn and Hradecky are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Abu-Zeid and Earnshaw may debutise.
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Gerzicich is absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Widzew Lodz – Dragojevic is absent. Kowalski, Dhifallah, and Banasiak are doubts.
Gornik Zabrze – Barbus is absent. Maczynski returns.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Estoril – Hugo Leal, Dieguinho, and Tiago Gomes are absent. Joao Paulo returns.
Maritimo Funchal – Diogo, Rossi, Olberdam, and Semedo are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – No news.
Gil Vicente – Arantes, Scarpolan, Murta, Yero, Pecks, and Ramazotti are absent. Leonardo, Pinheiro, Daniel, Sandro, and Lucio return.
Romanian Liga:
Viitorul Constanta – No absentees.
CSMS Iasi – Ionescu and Jovanovic are absent.
Steaua Bucharest – Dumitras is absent. Tanase is a doubt.
Rapid Bucharest – Constantin and Rui Duarte are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Alaniya Vladikavkaz – Semberas and Hubulov are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Gabulov and Akhmedov are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Deportivo La Coruna – Camunas is absent.
Sevilla CF – Reyes and Perrotti are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg – Gustafsson is absent.
IFK Goteborg – Jonsson returns.
Helsingborg – Atta, Edman, Krafth, Hanstveit, and Bouaouzan are absent.
Malmo FF – No absentees.
Turkish Super Lig:
Fenerbahce – Kesimal is absent. Kuyt is a doubt. Krasic and Egemen return.
Trabzonspor – Kacar, Zengin, and Colman are absent. Balci and Aydogdu are doubts.