TFT Issue 52!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Double chance
1X:
Rapid Vienna
Slavia Sofia
Union Espanola
Huachipato
Zadar
Sparta Prague
Deportivo Quito
Deportivo Cuenca
FC Honka Espoo
HJK Helsinki
Sillamae Kalev
Maag Tammeka Tartu
Lorient
BV09 Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta Bergamo
Heracles Almelo
Alianza Lima
Bogdanka Leczna
Dinamo Moscow
Dundee United
Vojvodina Novi Sad
Jagodina
OFK Belgrade
Slovan Bratislava
Barcelona
Real Betis Balompie
The bin
Steaua Bucharest vs SC Vaslui – away win with draw no bet at 5/4.
I like Vaslui at the moment – very efficient side. Steaua lack a goalscorer with Kapetanos and Stancu having left and I’d normally happily oppose them but they sacked manager Lacatus lately and replaced him with a good manager – ex-CFR Cluj manager Cartu – and new manager syndrome could fuck up all logic here so it’s a big “no bet” for me.
Stade Brestois vs LOSC Lille – away win at 10/11.
Tempting, given that Stade Brestois are pretty terrible and that LOSC Lille score goals for fun, but the absences of the away side concern me. There’s doubts over Rio Mavuba, Emerson, and Vandam in terms of general injuries but there’s also been a sickness in the camp this week with Gervinho, Cabaye, Tulio, and Debuchy suffering, just to name a few. Therefore, this is a big “no bet” to me as I have no idea who will be passed fit.
Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – home win at 10/11.
I was tempted by this on the basis that Villa score goals and Wolves don’t but I cannot back Villa when they miss Dunne and Collins in defence, not to mention the ever-absent Luke Young and youngster Clark. There’s too many holes at the back and even Wolves could score a couple here so it’s a “no bet” for me.
Featured game
Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Tallinn – away win at evens.
Unlike the Estonian Super Cup Final, this game won’t be played at Flora’s ground. Instead, it’s amusingly been moved to the ground shared by Levadia Tallinn’s female team and also Levadia Tallinn’s “B” team so although this is actually one of Levadia’s grounds, it’s not their usual one.
For me, that makes it pretty neutral, which is why I’m interested in this game. Well, it’s not the sole reason – Levadia’s mass exodus of players over the transfer window plays a big part in it! However, Flora managed to keep almost all of their regulars so they’ve actually got a much better thance than the odds indicate today, in my view.
Levadia parted ways with Neemelo and Voskoboinikov in the window, for starters, who were their two best strikers by a mile. They also parted ways with attacking midfielders Felipe Nunes, Deniss Malov, and Eino Puri and look a spent force in attack at the moment as a result, understandably. Levadia’s financial issues simply got the better of them and I think that they’ll suffer this season as a result. They were fortunate to get the 0-0 with Flora Tallinn in the Super Cup, despite eventually losing on penalties. It took them a long time to break down newly-promoted Ajax Lasnamae in their first game after the Super Cup and they actually failed to even score at Flora Paide last match, which illustrates my point about their ineffectual attack rather well. Therefore, we’re going to see Levadia rely massively on Nahk in midfield and although that might see them through most of their Meistrliiga encounters, I doubt it’ll be enough against their bitter rivals today.
Flora Tallinn importantly kept star striker Sander Post over the transfer window and with largely the same squad as last season, they should be a force this season. They’ve drafted in a few youngsters to bolster the squad as a whole and they should really win the league as a result, in my view. Since their Super Cup win against Levadia, Flora haven’t set the Meistriliiga alight with flambuoyant displays. Instead, they’ve battled to victories at Nomme Kalju (who I think will finish second in the table this season after some very good signings in the transfer window) and at home against battling Maag Tammeka Tartu. The old Flora Tallinn will no doubt return in due course but with such potency in their arsenal, even not playing playing well tends to result in wins. Flora Tallinn are now the undisputed best side in Tallinn and indeed Estonia so backing them at evens against anyone is always going to be appealing on some level.
Levadia Tallinn miss new Lithuanian defender Sarunas as he was dismissed against Flora Paide last match, thus further reducing their numbers. Flora Tallinn’s attack should be too much for them as it is but without one of their starting defenders, I don’t fancy Levadia here at all. For me, the away win at evens represents good value here.
Team news – Levadia Tallinn miss Sarunas through suspension.
Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at evens.
Additional games
Alki vs Enosis Neon Paralimni – away win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Both sides could do with the three points here, although Enosis will most likely want it more as anything but defeat for them here leaves them with a good chance of avoiding the relegation play-off, something that Alki are already doomed to compete in. The motivational factor is appealing but upon further investigation, I found out even more interesting news.
Alki play at Anorthosis Famagusta’s ground for this season so there’s no home advantage here – we all knew that already. However, in addition to that, Alki miss their two best strikers by a mile – Bashov and Serjao – as well as defenders Blanco and Constantinou, not to mention playmaker Gonzalez. This side does not have the depth to deal with such absences, especially in front of goal, so I think Alki will really struggle here, especially as they’ve already lost six out of twelve “home” games this season, winning just twice along the way.
Enosis themselves have important absentees with Mertakkas missing from midfield and Trenson missing in defence. However, they’ve lost less than half of their away games this season because they’re hard to beat and I don’t expect that to change in arguably the most important game of their campaign thus far. Enosis won at AEK Larnaca in their last away game and draw at Omonia Nicosia in the away game before that, keeping two clean sheets along the way, so I think it’s fair to say that they’re playing more than well enough to hold the hosts off today. Reports suggest that they’ll adopt a defensive strategy here to avoid defeat but I don’t think they’ll risk it against a feisty Alki side; I think they’ll push on to get a goal and then hold it as Alki are missing almost all of their good attacking players for this game.
Therefore, my call is for Enosis to win this game with draw no bet cover as odds of 6/4 look too generous here.
Team news – Alki miss Gonzalez, Serjao, Bashov, Blanco, Constantinou, and Brenner whereas Enosis Neon Paralimni miss Mertakkas and Trenson.
Verdict: Enosis Neon Paralimni to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Slovacko vs Jablonec – away win at 21/20.
Slovacko have started their second half of the campaign as if they didn’t want to play Gambrinus Liga football anymore. To be honest, if they continue to play this way, then they won’t be playing Gambrinus Liga football next season. It’s not so much the fact that they’ve lost twice and drawn once since their return from the winter break that concerns me but moreso the manner of them doing it. They’ve shipped three goals at home to Bohemians 1905 – I think the last time that they scored three times away from home could possibly have actually been 1905 – before drawing 2-2 at home to Viktoria Plzen – thanks to a late and frankly dubious goal – before being outplayed at relegation-threatened Usti nad Labem last match, conceding a total of seven goals in three games. Morale is low and with important midfielder Valenta absent as well as new signing Cisse, I just don’t see them getting a result here.
I’m awaiting Jablonec’s stumble in form due to the sale of Pekhart in attack as they lack a reliable target man without him. However, Lafata is good enough for games like this and if he turns up then Jablonec will win here. Their form has been excellent since the restart, keeping three clean sheets in three wins and demolishing Hradec Kralove 7-0 last match was the icing on the cake. They’re looking a lot better than they should be at the moment so I do think that they’ll falter in the near future. However, with Slovacko so inept defensively and Jablonec so assured wherever they play at the moment, I have to side with the away win here as the odds are rather generous when you consider that Jablonec are still a lot better than Slovacko, even without Pekhart.
Team news – Slovacko miss Cisse, Stary, and Valenta.
Verdict: Jablonec to win at 21/20.
Hannover 96 vs Hoffenheim – home win at 5/4.
Hannover 96 welcome back Ya Konan to continue his excellent season and help the hosts push for yet another home win. Nobody has won more home games in the Bundesliga than Hannover 96 have this season with nine wins from thirteen games, although a couple of sides can rival it. Hannover 96 are a very efficient counter-attacking unit and with the pace of Ya Konan and Abdellaoue in attack, it’s no surprise at all that they’re doing so well. Hannover 96 were drubbed 4-0 at in-form Koln in their last game but their good run had to end sometime, to be fair. More importantly, Hannover 96 have only failed to win once in their last seven home games and it took a vigilant display from Schalke 04 to win the game 0-1. Either side of that, Hannover have overcome VfL Wolfsburg, Bayern Munich, and VfB Stuttgart so you cannot underestimate just how good Hannover 96 actually are at home.
Hoffenheim have never really recovered from their bizarre transfer window and I think they’ll need to regroup in June to look ahead to next season. The sale of Luis Gustavo and Demba Ba affected the side massively but then their manager walking out was the nail in the coffin lid. Hoffenheim are still a resilient unit that are hard to beat but they’ve lost their last two away games in a row, both without scoring a goal whilst conceding six times along the way so they’re not unbeatable. They’ll make themselves a solid defensive side to face Hannover 96, I’ve no doubt, but they lack the firepower to concern me in this game. The absent Weis in midfield affects the solidary of their unit and to be honest, I think they’ll be easily overrun by their pacey hosts.
Hannover 96 can struggle against sides that “park the bus” but they’re playing so well at home that I fancy them here either way. To stop Hoffenheim, you have to defend immaculately or score a lot of goals and currently, Hoffenhiem do neither. Therefore, the home win at 5/4 appeals to me today.
Team news – Hannover 96 miss Zieler, Avevor, Burmeister, Hofmann, Andreasen, Ernst, and Evseev whereas Hoffenheim miss Grahl, Ozcan, Conrad, Gulde, Ibertsberger, Klingmann, Neupert, Ludwig, Weis, Hemlein, Herdling, and Obasi.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win at 5/4.