TFT Issue 522!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
FC Lahti vs TPS Turku – away win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between FC Lahti and TPS Turku.
FC Lahti have been remarkable of late, winning five out of their last seven, including a 3-0 win against reigning champions HJK Helsinki. They’ve turned their relegation battle into a potential battle for a UEFA Europa League place, impressively enough. It’s even more impressive when you acknowledge the fact that this side is primarily composed of Ykkonen players and the odd class act. Kautonen’s team has plenty of spirit and work ethic, which has done them proud this season. Quality-wise, they really should be in the relegation battle, so why aren’t they?
Well, when the shit hit the fan, FC Lahti felt the need to respond by signing someone that would aid them in their quest to survive an immediate return to the Ykkonen. Enter Cameroonian forward Ngueukam! This fella had been setting the Ykkonen alight, destroying sides for a Jippo Joensuu side that used to get dizzy if they scored two goals in the same game. That was enough for FC Lahti to take a chance on him and what a signing he has been! He’s bagged six goals in five appearances and has had a hand in many more. It’s no coincidence that FC Lahti have had a massive turnaround in form since he arrived and if he continues to play this way then I doubt it’ll be long before Inter Turku inevitably pick him up (can’t see him wearing a HJK Helsinki shirt somehow). However, despite his talents as a striker, he’s also a silly fucker, as his red card at IFK Mariehamn demonstrated all too well last match. That means he misses this game today against title hopefuls TPS Turku, which basically drops FC Lahti’s attack from three or four stars down to about one, possibly two stars (on a good day). This side is a very average one at best and although they will unquestionably work hard, I doubt that they have the quality to do anything in this game without their impressive attacker, especially with Rafael looking old and both Kari and Kemppinen still on the sidelines.
TPS Turku have their own issues ahead of this game with goalkeeper Lehtovaara absent and especially impressive Pennanen in midfield, who has become one of the more important midfielders this season, especially with Kolehmainen moving on. Agyeman will contribute, of course, but he needs time to gel with his new team-mates. Still, TPS Turku don’t have the luxury of resting on their laurels and merely awaiting the time to come for Agyeman to settle in because they’re locked in the middle of an exciting title race, the closest that there has been for a while with bitter rivals Inter Turku and reigning champions HJK Helsinki vying with TPS Turku for the crown. Hell, even IFK Mariehamn are still in the title race; how on earth did that happen?! There’s no way that they’re good enough to be there now that Forsell has gone. Anyway, TPS Turku need to keep taking points and this is very much a game that they can win, irrespective of the dicey pitch.
FC Lahti don’t defend well so TPS Turku should have a field day here. I’ll eat my hat if clumsy Okaru scores the winner here like he did against VPS Vaasa but I have every faith in my main man Aaritalo delivering the goods. Hyyrynen, Riski, Ristola, Lehtonen – Rajamaki really does have quite the collection of strikers to utilise today! The absence of Makinen and Pennanen in midfield is a problem but I’d only read more into it if the side that TPS Turku faced could defend, which FC Lahti simply can’t.
TPS Turku are going to have to work hard here and it’s imperative that they take their chances. However, if they take the lead, as I expect, then I fully expect them to hold that lead against an FC Lahti attack devoid of its main threat – Ngueukam. For me, there’s value on the superior TPS Turku winning this game at evens.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at evens.
Additional games
VPS Vaasa vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win at 11/10.
The odds are jumping all over the place for this one and I can understand that as not many people have a clue about Finnish football as they’re still seduced by statistics alone.
Whether it wins or not, however, I really like the look of the home win at 11/10 today. VPS are a nightmare to face in Vaasa with their solid defence, tenacious midfield, and lightning striker Morrissey. They don’t like to be favourites, I have to confess; breaking sides down is not their speciality. VPS much prefer to counter-attack than to push on and break sides down because their solid defence is called into question when playing a higher line and their attack isn’t as effectual when pace is not the main weapon, which it’s generally not when trying to penetrate a side.
However, VPS aren’t the side that need points today; Jaro do. That changes the angle with which we view this game, in my view. It’s all well and good rock-bottom Jaro scraping a few points together with a win against Honka Espoo’s “B” team or bunkering up against KuPS Kuopio, HJK Helsinki, and shitty Haka. I admit that they’re defending a lot better than they were earlier this season (which is not hard!!) but the fact is that Eremenko’s team need points. They have five games left in the Veikkausliiga this season. They’ve got an away game with TPS Turku (no chance!), a home game with IFK Mariehamn (nightmare to beat), a trip to JJK Jyvaskyla (need to score goals to win here, which they can’t do), and a home game with in-form FC Lahti (could win at a push). Now, you look at that fixture list and tell me which games they have a chance of getting something from. Uh-huh – you got it; JJK, Lahti, and VPS, at least in their eyes. They need to push on for a win and most of the sides that have tried to do that in Vaasa this season (JJK Jyvaskyla, FC Honka Espoo, HJK Helsinki, FC Lahti) have lost here because of VPS’ counter-attacking prowess. Don’t get me wrong; VPS are not Gods and can lose at home if their opponents are good enough to enforce it. However, as good as Niang is up front for Jaro, I don’t see anywhere near enough creativity nor firepower to trouble VPS today, especially with Agyeman having left for TPS Turku.
For me, Jaro attacking VPS today will be like Christians to the lions. If they don’t attack VPS then a 0-0 is possible here. I don’t want Jaro to take the lead in this game as I hate the idea of VPS needing to score twice and needing to do it via breaking a side down. If they get the lead, though, they should hold it. Either way, 11/10 on the better side winning here definitely interests me.
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win at 11/10.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv – away win at 4/5.
Well, most bookies that cover the Israeli Ligat Ha’al have slashed their odds on the away win here but one notoriously slow bookmaker decided not do that; good old Paddy Power! I’ve seen 4/5 on the away win there and that suits me just fine.
Unlike a number of sides in their position, Hapoel Be’er Sheva have trouble keeping their opponents out. They’re no Hapoel Acre, you know? Their record looks decent enough on paper but when you consider that the only side they’ve kept a clean sheet against this season has been rock-bottom Bnei Sakhnin then you begin to realise the task ahead of them this season.
For this game, Hapoel Be’er Sheva not only need to be awesome defensively (unlikely to happen!) but they need to be magic in attack; sheer magic. Why? Well, important Argentinian attacker Falczuk misses out today and he’s joined by Saba’a and Fa’at in midfield, as the latter duo are not able to play against their parent club. This leaves their midfield with some energy but not much idea. The likes of Suissa and William can be threats if not handled correctly but those three absentees cause the hosts problems in a game that they can’t afford to have any problems in. They’ve already failed to win their first four games of the season so the pressure is mounting on Levy and I very much doubt that that record will have changed by the end of play today.
Visitors Maccabi Tel-Aviv concern me, I have to admit. This is not the most stable of clubs so I do wonder how long their excellent run will last for. Still, that comes from experience of them over the past few years; perhaps Oscar Garcia is the man to bring them consistency at long last. They did have the referee to thank for their seemingly dominant 4-0 win against reigning champions Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona in their last game but the fact is that they’re scoring a lot of goals right now and they’re playing with a lot of confidence because of it. New signing Gonzalo Garcia is looking good, just as he used to for AEK Larnaca in Cyprus, making plenty of chances and even getting on the scoresheet himself. Atar has been immense with six goals in four appearances and we’ve not even looked at old hand Colautti, promising Dabbur, or new signing Robert Earnshaw yet! This side has been engineered to score goals and that’s precisely what they’ve done thus far. Defender Vered is absent today but it’s their firepower that interests me the most as I expect them to outscore their hosts whatever happens.
Therefore, I feel that the away win is generously priced by Paddy Power at 4/5 and thus that is my selection for this game!
Verdict: Maccabi Tel-Aviv to win at 4/5.
Dinamo Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu – lay Dinamo Bucharest at 4/5.
Instead of Paddy Power, it’s Bwin this time that have generously donated odds of 4/5 on laying Dinamo Bucharest today and I’m over the moon with those odds, truth be told. Most other bookies have sensibly shortened the odds but not good old Bwin!
Right – Dinamo Bucharest. Do not back this side at home without great reasoning. They are not well-supported and their name is the best part of their existence nowadays. They’re horribly overrated, play very unconvincing football, and lack quality in many areas but particularly in defence. They’ve looked shoddy lately and their fans are worried as a result. They’ve lost three out of their last five games in all competitions, two of which they didn’t even score in. They won 1-2 at Universitatea Cluj in their last Liga game, which was due to a clearly offside goal and a controversial penalty (don’t be misled by the result; they were as poor as ever!). They won 2-1 against Vointa Sibiu in the Cup and needed extra-time to do so earlier this week because they were too poor to create enough chances to beat last year’s relegated outfit. Obviously it’s not impossible for Dinamo Bucharest to win this game; it’s not impossible for any side to win any game. However, what I would say is that if they win this one then they’ll need some extraordinary luck to make it happen.
Visitors Pandurii Targu Jiu have been the success story this season with seven wins in nine games. How have they achieved it? It’s beyond me because Grigoras’ team doesn’t have lots of support or lots of money. Grigoras is simply a very good coach and his players always give 100% whilst not being afraid of attacking. The old Pandurii was notorious for being able to bunker against any side but this one is notorious for its never-say-die attitude and its ability to score goals in any scenario. They’ve got tremendous momentum right now with four wins from their last five Liga games (excepting the 4-0 defeat at Petrolul Ploiesti, which came about because of a red card). They hammered amateurs Zagon 7-1 earlier this week in the Cup so they’re not short of confidence. They’ve beaten some very good sides lately. Sides are struggling to handle Boutadjine and his supportive midfield in Ijeh, Radut, Maxim, Nistor, Voiculet etc. It may be a tad bold to suggest the idea but Pandurii’s football makes them actually look a better side than Dinamo right now.
Now, Dinamo are still the huge name in this game and there are other factors at work here that may motivate the hosts (such as the anniversary of the death of club legend Haladan) but as far as quality and displays go, I’m going to be very surprised to see a home win today. For me, the value has to be in laying Dinamo at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Bucharest at 4/5.
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Well, it’s yet another Goteborg derby and who would have thought at the start of the season that this game would be important for IFK Goteborg to try and avoid relegation whilst it’s important for Hacken to try and win the title?! Not me, that’s for sure. The other way around, perhaps, but not this way!
Despite a horribly lazy and complacent display against GAIS Goteborg, I’m going to give the massively under-achieving IFK Goteborg another chance here because they looked up for it during their 1-2 win at bitter rivals Malmo FF and have another chance to take down another rival today. Don’t doubt IFK’s quality because they’re a very, very good side when it suits them. I only ever question their motivation and application because if they lack it, they simply won’t score and the fans get on their back. Angelarna really should turn up today against Hacken, though, as Hacken desperately need the points and IFK will not be keen to assist them, I assure you. This is not the most fierce of derbies but it’s a derby nonetheless and I expect both sides to give it a good go, really. Even with the return of Bjarsmyr to the IFK defence, I just cannot envision them being able to contain Waris, Williams, Mohammed, and Makondele for one second. They’re too quick and strong for a sluggish IFK defence and I do feel that Hacken can win this game. Still, IFK are the bigger side and they’re very well-supported too. Hell, I’d even make a case for them having a better side than Hacken but their whole approach to Allsvenskan football this season has been very poor, hence their predicament.
Either way, Hacken are on a great run right now and IFK have picked up lately. The Goteborg derby has a habit of producing a lot of goals and given that both sides need the points, I can’t help but feel that taking over 2.5 goals is a bargain at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
IFK Norrkoping vs GAIS Goteborg – HT/FT draw/home win at 3/1.
This one is unquestionably the risky bet of the day but I do love the odds on it!
Basically, what you need to understand about IFK Norrkoping is that they love to show up against big sides and they love to counter-attack. When it comes to breaking sides down, they’re not actually very good at it, in my view, especially ever since set piece specialist Ajdarevic moved to Standard de Liege. GAIS Goteborg will come here to defend because that’s all that they can do now that Celik and Wanderson have left. They know they’ll be playing Superettan football next season, even though it’s still mathematically possible for them to avoid relegation. They’re now playing for pride and they tend to keep that pride well for the first-half at least, hence eight draws at half-time out of twelve of their Allsvenskan away games this season. They’ve gone on to lose eight out of those twelve away games this season too. IFK Norrkoping are favourites to win this game and rightfully so, although I can’t help but feel that anyone that has backed this outcome at 1/2 has been robbed because there’s no way that IFK Norrkoping are worth those odds against anyone, especially with a shambolic defence. They’re slow starters too, IFK Norrkoping – they rarely score goals in the first-half of their home games but eventually manage to claw a way through come the second-half. GAIS have no real response if they fall behind, hence them generally losing their away games. The big question is whether IFK Norrkoping will eventually break through and I do think that they will on their beloved artificial turf. GAIS Goteborg aren’t great at defending against pace and IFK Norrkoping do have plenty of it. Most people are expecting goals here but I’m not, truth be told. I may be proven horribly wrong but I fancy a very narrow home win today due to the above. Either way, taking this game to be a draw at half-time and a home win by full-time appeals to me a lot at 3/1 with the above taken into consideration.
Verdict: HT/FT draw/IFK Norrkoping win at 3/1.
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Malmo FF – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
What sad times are these, eh? I can’t bring myself to back a vastly superior Malmo side to win at Syrianska because they’ve looked poor in front of goal lately.
However, I do like the idea of goals here for varying reasons. I mean, any fool can tell you that both sides need the points for varying reasons but there are other factors to consider.
He may not have played much but signing former Malmo prodigy Harbuzi from his stint in Turkey with Manisaspor and Gaziantepspor was a great and rather unexpected move. He’s a playmaker that is far too good for Syrianska if he’s playing to his potential so it’ll be interesting to see how that goes for Syrianska. I find it hard to believe that he won’t feature against his former club today at some stage, too!
On top of that, the battling nature of new Basque midfielder Gondra appears to be galvanising this pack of psychos, so much so that even Sharbel Touma has decided to try and not get sent off for a while. He’ll be especially keen to do well today as a former AIK Solna winger! Aganovic and Felic have looked good up front lately and Syrianska as a whole have looked good over their last five games, embracing the relegation dogfight with relish and scoring a shitload of goals against the odds to upset a lot of sides. They’ll love the idea of entertaining Malmo today because they’re effectively “The Crazy Gang” of Swedish football and who knows – maybe they’ll claim a huge scalp to boot!
Malmo could and should win this game but the more they play, the more they miss Ranegie; fact. Rantie is making all the right moves etc. but he is not taking enough of his chances and he’s being too selfish. Strikers are supposed to be selfish but not to that extent; the point is still to score goals, after all! I’ve no doubt at all that the South African prospect will become a very important player for Malmo next season but for now, he really needs to appreciate that he’s part of a machine; he’s not the machine himself. Larsson has gone into a shell since Ranegie moved to Udinese and subsequently Malmo aren’t scoring goals regularly enough. Fortunately, Malmo have one of the best midfields in Sweden to aid their depleted attack in Wilton, Hamad, and the returning Pekalski. No Daniel Andersson in defence makes their defence as vulnerable as hell, even moreso than normal, which basically means that them keeping a clean sheet is something of a miracle. They look short of confidence, too – I find it hard to envision them delivering a convincing display today. Still, Malmo are a side that always attract goals, either via scoring them or giving them away, and that’s what I expect in this important match today.
I’d stay away from the 1×2 market here, irrespective of the fact that shitty Syrianska look very long here with everything taken into account. However, taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks a concealed diamond to me as long as Syrianska don’t have anyone unnecessarily sent off (horrible trait of theirs) and as long as Malmo take their chances.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland – Bak and Sviatchenko are absent. Janssen returns.
SonderyjskE – Salami may debutise.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti – Kemppinen, Kari, and Nguekam are absent.
TPS Turku – Pennanen, Makinen, and Lehtovaara are absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Claudio Matrone, Dema, and Sanevuori are absent. Bright is a doubt.
HJK Helsinki – Lindstrom and Perovuo are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Wusu is absent. Reintam is a doubt.
IFK Mariehamn – No news.
VPS Vaasa – Parikka is a doubt.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Wargh is absent. Emet is a doubt. Sara, Vaganov, and Vasiljev return.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Saba’a, Ka’at, and Falczuk are absent.
Maccabi Tel-Aviv – Vered is absent.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atlantas – N’Diaye is absent.
Banga Gargzdai – Padaigis is absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Piast Gliwice – Docekal, Swierczok, Lisowski, and Urban are absent. Cuerda is a doubt.
Wisla Krakow – Sobolewski and Quioto are absent. Chrapek and Glowacki return.
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – Garcia is absent.
Astra Giurgiu – Barboianu, Melinte, Ben Djemia, Matel, and Silvio Lung are absent.
Dinamo Bucharest – Ba is absent.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – No absentees.
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Taranov and Epureanu are absent.
FK Krasnodar – No absentees.
Mordovia Saransk – Iurchenko and Osipov are absent.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz – Hubulov is absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe – Alexis is absent.
Real Mallorca – Gimenez, Marquez, and dos Santos are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Syrianska Sodertalje – Pereira is absent.
Malmo FF – Dahlin is absent.
IFK Norrkoping – No absentees.
GAIS Goteborg – No news.
Djurgarden – Keene is absent.
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.
IFK Goteborg – Valgardsson is absent.
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK – Akgun, Demirci, Koybasi, and Pektemek are absent.
Sivasspor – Sahin and Celikay are absent.