TFT Issue 523!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Apologies for the meltdown yesterday, gents – can’t seem to string to wins together at the moment. Still, onward and upward, eh?
Featured game
Galatasaray vs Sporting Braga – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Istanbul between Galatasaray and Portugal’s Sporting Braga.
Both of these two sides share similar characteristics in the sense that both possess a strong attack and a weak defence. Perhaps that’s a shade harsh of me on Braga; it’d be more technically correct to state that they’ve changed managers this year and they throw caution to the wind a lot more, which exposes their defence.
Galatasaray are playing in their new stadium for the first time in the Champions League. Given the racket that they made at Old Trafford in their last Champions League, I fully expect them to give their team plenty of support here. The Turks are notorious for that kind of thing, anyway – I couldn’t blame any of you for taking a Gala win here with that in mind. Indeed, they’re a very traditional side with plenty of experience, much moreso than Braga at this level, so again, I wouldn’t blame you if you took the home win.
However, Galatasaray are weak at the back and it shows. Cris hasn’t settled in yet and with Ujfalusi on the sidelines, Galatasaray are vulnerable. Now, I was at their game against Manchester United and for the first twenty minutes, it looked like the Turks would be sent home with a drubbing. However, United took their foot off the gas and Galatasaray responded magnificently by fighting and frankly deserving something from the game. If it wasn’t for the heroics of David de Gea then they most likely would have got something too. Still, that twenty-minute spell has not left my memory as Galatasaray were so, so poor at the back that it was frightening. I expect them to be the typical over 2.5 goals side in this tournament as long as they keep their cool in the final third.
Braga were beyond unlucky in their opening Champions League game at home against CFR Cluj. The Romanian side had what – two? Maybe three shots on goal in the whole game? Yet somehow, Cluj won the game 0-2. That’s what we call “Sod’s Law” in England. Braga need to be more clinical in front of goal, it’s true – they still miss Mateus Nascimento – but they do have more than enough creativity in midfield to make chances, especially in Hugo Viana. I thought Braga were very composed and frankly deadly against bitter rivals Vitoria Guimaraes on Friday night (note that they’d have longer to prepare for this game than Galatasaray have) whilst Galatasaray lost at Hector Raul Cuper’s Orduspor. Braga have the personnel to really bother Galatasaray but adapting to the hostile atmosphere is something that will play a big part in the success of Braga here. Will they manage it? I don’t honestly know.
I wouldn’t enter the 1×2 market here, irrespective of my leaning toward Galatasaray. Instead, I’d much rather opt for over 2.5 goals at evens in a game between two attacking sides, especially with both sides currently with zero points so a win is a must for both of them.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
CFR Cluj vs Manchester United – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I was optimistic before the game with Galatasaray than United would start doing their homework on their opponents again but twenty minutes into the game, I had lost complete faith in that idea as Galatasaray ran riot and should have scored. United were just doing stupid shit like showing Altintop onto his stronger foot and stuff, you know? It’s just schoolboy stuff.
Anyway, this should be a different game but I don’t expect us to have done any more homework than before. Cluj play bunker football against superior sides although if they’re anything about them then they’ll attack ’cause when Otelul did it last year, United didn’t know what to do, irrespective of how much better United were as individuals. I doubt Cluj will attack, though – there’s no need for them to as a draw is a heroic result here. The pace of Sougou on counter-attacks will cause United problems if he can have a similar impact to Bale at weekend. Obviously he’s notwhere near as good but the idea is the same.
United play the same way away from home in Europe; containing, counter-attacking, low-scoring. United play to keep clean sheets on the road and try to poach a goal. We aren’t well-equipped to do that tonight, though – we’ve been forced to lose four of our regular five-man midfield on the road in Europe with Carrick, Scholes, Giggs, and Valencia all sitting this one out. Now, this will have one of two impacts; it’ll either mean that United are forced to show how good we can be by playing short passing and attacking, in which case this bet is ruined, or it’ll mean that United will defend in a less convincing manner than normal and may even draw this game 0-0. I personally feel that the latter is on the cards, especially when vividly recalling the fact that United didn’t deserve to beat Otelul in either game last year and Cluj are better than Otelul!! I think we’re likely to see plenty of rotations with Buttner in for Evra, Welbeck playing (maybe as a lone frontman or as a supporting winger), maybe a start for Rooney to get some match practice, and a central midfield that is likely to be Fletcher and Anderson, perhaps with Cleverley in there too. Nani may be the only creative outlet we have in terms of pace and beating a man and that tends to limit our creativity as opponents just double-up on him.
Bluntly put, United should be experienced enough to leave Romania with a clean sheet but you’re a braver man than me if you take a United win here because we’re generally bloody awful to watch away from home in Europe nowadays. I think we’ll see a 0-0 or 0-1 here but I won’t be crying if United win this one 0-10, I assure you!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
SL Benfica vs Barcelona – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
I don’t want to be overly harsh on what is essentially a good Benfica side but I think that they’re out of their depth in this game. It’s not so much that Barcelona are Barcelona but the fact that Benfica’s entire defensive stability has been removed. The suspension of Luisao is a huge problem for Benfica, especially in the commanding of their defence and the aerial prowess that he had. The sale of Javi Garcia is another huge problem as Matic and Carlos Martins are nowhere near as good as Garcia was. Melgarejo is no replacement for Coentrao other than that he can’t defend either. The list goes on, basically. I’m sure Nolito will want to impress against his former club and the return of Aimar will grant Benfica a level of composure that they’ve not had much this season but they’re not taking their chances often enough with Cardozo snatching at his chances despite being a real handful. The powerful striker misses out today too, though, which gives Benfica virtually no height to use over Barcelona, which is another problem. Rodrigo is a promising striker and the midfield is capable but I think there are too many heavyweights missing from this Benfica side for them to trouble Barcelona today.
True enough, Barcelona’s defence has been decimated and I have to confess that that’s on my mind. Nonetheless, I don’t see anyone to break up Barcelona’s play for Benfica and if they have the ball then they’ll surely make it count against this vulnerable Benfica defence. You can see what Villa’s return has done for Barcelona as they’re now winning games when sides park the bus against them; his movement is essential to them in that position. Messi, Iniesta, Xavi – whoever plays, it’s a dangerous Barcelona side. They need no introduction here but they do need a convincing win following their near miss against Spartak Moscow.
Personally, I find odds of evens on Barcelona beating the -1 Asian Handicap very interesting today.
Verdict: Barcelona to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Spartak Moscow vs Celtic – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I’ve lost count of the number of people that have told me that Scottish football is shit nowadays. I’m not going to argue the case for it but what I will say is that tactically speaking, they’re not bad at all because that is the only advantage that they have nowadays so they tend to use it. Yeah, they were negative against Benfica but hey, it worked, you know? Benfica weren’t at their best but Celtic know how to piss off sides; it’s in their blood. Scottish sides love nothing more than to cause upsets and maybe we’ll see one today; who knows?
Personally, I can’t see them stopping Welliton and co. on the artificial turf at Luzhniki. I think Spartak are very good in attack nowadays and will score goals for fun if allowed to do so. There’s plenty of varied alternatives if one plan isn’t working and I don’t think Lennon is calm enough as a manager to calm his side down if things aren’t going their way. An early Spartak goal would suit me down to the ground today as Celtic would then have to push out and Spartak would be able to damage them even more. McGeady will be facing his old club today and he knows them well so again, I think Spartak will break through here.
Still, there’s no Romulo for Spartak so their best holding midfielder is absent. They’ll miss him breaking up the flow of their opponents and they’ll miss his presence in the air. Celtic have enough aerial power to punish Spartak and they’ve plenty of pace on the counter-attack, especially if Forrest is playing. Don’t lose sight of the fact that Spartak’s defence is beyond vulnerable and how negatively their players start to play if things aren’t going their way. If Celtic are smart here then they can score and they can cause an upset.
I think the odds on a Spartak win are too short although I have to agree that it’s the most likely outcome. However, I do like the idea of over 2.5 goals at 9/10 between these contrasting sides so as long as Spartak are determined and creative whilst preferably scoring an early goal. If that’s the case then I think it’ll be a nice little earner today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Galatasaray – Ujfalusi and Altintop are absent. Elmander is a big doubt.
SL Benfica – Cardozo and Luisao are absent. Aimar returns.
Sporting Braga – Carlao and Elderson are absent. Salino, Ze Luis, and Ismaily return.
Juventus – Padoin and Pepe are absent. Bonucci is a doubt.
CFR Cluj – Deac, Vass, Ronny, and Sare are absent.
Chelsea – Sturridge is absent.
Manchester United – Giggs, Carrick, Scholes, and Valencia are absent.
Spartak Moscow – Gatagov, Romulo, Dikan, and Parshivlyuk are absent. Welliton returns.
LOSC Lille – Mavuba, Kalou, and Martin are absent.