TFT Issue 528!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju – over 3.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Estonian Meistriliiga game between relegation-threatened Kuressaare and league leaders Nomme Kalju. Points are very much a requirement for both sides today with Nomme Kalju actually winning the title if they win this game, which makes this a very interesting encounter.
Now, as far as the eventual winners go, I have little doubt that we’ll see anything but an away win here. Nomme Kalju have two squads of players that could win this league, essentially, so they really must win this encounter and claim their first Meistriliiga title.
However, let’s not overlook how important this game is to Kuressaare as they simply can’t afford to write this one off. They’ve got four games left this season, including this one. They’re most likely going to lose this one and the home game with Levadia Tallinn, which leaves them with Viljandi at home and Tallinna Kalev away. Now, relegation rivals Tallinna Kalev host the most likely doomed side Tammeka in their next game and three points there should take them above Kuressaare before they host them at the end of the season. That’s far from ideal for Kuressaare; they need to do something more. Admittedly, beating Viljandi could drag them into the mire but a couple of draws from their remaining games should be enough to see the relegation play-off battle be between Kuressaare and Tallinna Kalev. Essentially, Kuressaare need as many points as they can and as quickly as they can, starting today.
Still, they’ve picked the best side in Estonian history to do it against so they’re going to need an awful lot of luck if they’re to manage it. They’re missing integral centre-back Pohlak today, for whom they have no replacement. Considering that they’ve already conceded in all but two home games this season, that’s far from good news. They hosted Nomme Kalju back in August and lost 0-9 so they won’t be relishing yet another mismatch. Every good side that has come to Kuressaare this season has left having scored at least two goals so it doesn’t look good for the hosts today, does it? Kuressaare have conceded seventeen goals against Nomme Kalju over three games this season so, yeah – start praying, guys!
Still, Nomme Kalju have shown some weakness lately by conceding daft goals. They’ve still got unbelievable firepower for this level but conceding in five out of their last six games in all competitions is not good enough for them. Having Neemelo back from injury and the experience of Viikmae and movement of Jevdokimov basically guarantees Nomme Kalju at least two or three goals per game if Neemelo isn’t too drunk. Quinteri has looked good this season (when not on the sidelines!) and playmaker Puri, old hand Terehov, and the twat that is Konsa have all contributed. The fact is that Nomme Kalju have an attack that no side in Estonia can contain and as long as they keep their cool here then they will win this game by a comfortable scoreline. Given Kuressaare’s determination for points, however, the absence of Sisov in defence does seem that bit more concerning. Nomme Kalju conceded against Kuressaare in their last game and despite running out 6-1 winners, this is another game on another day and it’s got much more tension attached to it so who knows? We may see a cheeky goal/goal bet come in here if you have the audacity to take it.
Me? I much prefer over 3.5 goals. Nomme Kalju can take this game over 3.5 goals on their own but given that Kuressaare may actually contribute here, I’m very confident in this one rolling home. Most bookies have sensibly priced this one at around 4/7 or 8/13, which is acceptable. However, the newcomers MarathonBet have left this one as long as 10/11 as per 20:00 GMT yesterday. Odds have sharply dropped since then and are currently around 5/6. I expect them to drop more because everyone in Estonia will be on this one, knowing how good Nomme Kalju are, how bad Kuressaare are etc. You’ll have to be unlucky to lose this one today so for me, it’s all about the over 3.5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 5/6.
Team news
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Kuressaare – Pohlak is absent.
Nomme Kalju – Sisov is absent.
Flora Tallinn – No news.
Trans Narva – No news.