TFT Issue 53!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Double chance
1X:
Standard de Liege
Mechelen
Litex Lovech
Colo Colo
Emelec Guayaquil
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Panathinaikos
Udinese
Internazionale
PSV Eindhoven
Stromsgodset
Rubin Kazan’
Cerro Porteno
Porto
Dinamo Bucharest
Red Star Belgrade
Deportivo La Coruna
Shakhtar Donetsk
Club Nacional de Montevideo
Zulia
Deportivo Anzoategui
The bin
Bohemians 1905 vs Usti nad Labem – home win at 4/5.
Bohemians have been playing well and Usti nad Labem are shit so the foundations are here for a home win. However, doubts over Kaufman and the absence of Nespor means that their attack is a bit immobile with Hartig up front on his own so I’ve decided to skip this game.
Featured game
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Dynamo Kiev – away win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Ukrainian Premier League game between ever-improving Dnipro and high-flying Dynamo Kiev.
Dnipro are no longer the defensive force that they once were as they seek to push on and become a potent attacking threat as well as a respected force in the Ukraine. They’ve signed some good players to aid their cause but you can see how it’s unsettled the team with two consecutive 2-2 draws leading them into this game. Dnipro are scoring more goals, admittedly, but they’re also conceding very easily and that’s generally fatal against Dynamo Kiev. Amusingly, Dnipro have actually drawn four games 2-2 in a row, not two – well, if you include friendlies – so you can see that their defence needs time to gel now that Inkoom and Strinic have been added to it. Both are very good defenders, don’t get me wrong, but even good players need time to adapt and Dnipro have thrown them in at the deep end, something which could cost them today.
Visitors Dynamo Kiev just seem to be getting stronger and stronger, which isn’t entirely unexpected with wily Semin at the helm. A 1-0 defeat in England earlier this week saw Dynamo Kiev progress to the latter stages of the UEFA Europa League and two convincing displays against the English side leaves me in no doubt at all over how much Dynamo Kiev believe in themselves currently and that matters a lot to me. The absence of Milevskiy is a blow but with Kravets and Guilherme ready to step in required, I’m not overly concerned here. Dynamo Kiev have enough support from midfield to ensure Shevchenko isn’t isolated – well, Yarmolenko does that job well either way! – so Kiev should be able to go about their business as usual here. The goal they conceded at Manchester City was the only one that Kiev have conceded in five consecutive games in all competitions, winning the other four games rather easily and efficiently, so Dnipro have every reason to be afraid here.
Dnipro used to be efficient, low-scoring, but defensively untouchable but now they’re an attacking with an unfamiliar defence and this transformation is affecting them a lot, which could and should show today. Dynamo Kiev have never looked more galvanised than they do now – well, not since the last time Semin was in Kiev – so I have to take their chances of winning here very seriously indeed. Dnepropetrovsk is never an easy away game for any side but Dynamo Kiev have advantages over Dnirpo here in varying areas so I think the away win represents some value at 4/5.
Team news – Dynamo Kiev miss Milevskiy.
Verdict: Dynamo Kiev to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Standard de Liege vs Germinal Beerschot – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Standard look red-hot with Defour, Witsel, and Tchite all playing and they all will be tonight so I have a massive level of confidence in the hosts. They played well against Club Brugge and should have won the game but it ended 2-2. They dominated Charleroi in the 0-2 game away from home and although they succumbed to a battling 1-0 defeat at AA Gent earlier this week, they still look much better than before and let’s face it – this is a must-win game for Standard or they face the prospect of not being in the Champions Group, which would be a major disaster for them. Standard have the creativity and finesse to win this game with the afore-mentioned playing and with Germinal Beerschot having nothing to play for in this game, I think Standard will have a lot of fun here. Germinal have already lost ten out of fourteen away games in the Eerste Klasse this season whilst averaging conceding over two goals per away game so I think it’s reasonable to expect them to struggle in this game with no motivation to boost them. For me, the handicap option on Standard de Liege looks very tempting indeed with the above in mind as it’s a game Standard must win and the -1.5 goal handicap odds at 4/5 are good.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Prague – home win at 5/6.
Eight wins from ten home games in the Gambrinus Liga this season demonstrates why Sigma are a feared side to face in Olomouc. They average scoring nearly three goals per home game whilst conceding a goal per every two home games, on average, so you can see why sides struggle here. The departure of Hubnik in attack has affected them but I don’t honestly know to what degree until further along in the current campaign. They’ve blown a lot of sides away lately in games that they shouldn’t have been so comfortable in without Hubnik but in their last match, they succumbed to a 2-0 defeat at Brno so it’ll be interesting to see how they bounce back today. They’ve got the firepower to overcome most Gambrinus Liga sides in Sultes and Petr and they’ve got the necessary support from midfielders Horava, Janotka, and Navratil respectively so Sigma remain a good side, although the nucleus of their team is unnervingly young! Nonetheless, Sigma are a good side and do like to play good attacking football so I rate their chances here.
In addition to the above, Sigma Olomouc have the knowledge that they’re facing Slavia Prague today, a Slavia Prague side utterly bereft of talent and potency. Only Karol Kisel remains to carry this team and although their spirit is undeniable and the unyielding support of their many fans is very respectable, they’re still a very poor side at the moment due to their crippling financial position. They’ve bizarrely claimed two good results lately, winning 0-2 at Slovan Liberec and winning 4-1 against Teplice but they’ve got a big test ahead of them today and it’s not one that I can see them passing, to be honest.
Slavia have struggled in Olomouc for two consecutive years now, losing on both occasions, and on both occasions they had better team than they do now. I think they’ll give Sigma a tough game because of the momentum they bring into this encounter but I don’t think that they have the firepower, experience, or even ability to leave Olomouc with anything today. For me, the home win represents good value at 5/6.
Team news – Sigma Olomouc miss Prikyl whereas Slavia Prague miss Naumovem.
Verdict: Sigma Olomouc to win at 5/6.
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg – away win with draw no bet at 6/4.
You have to fancy this one! The Bundesliga managers are all on a bit of a merry-go-round at the moment with job swaps going on virtually most weeks. The latest one involving VfL Wolfsburg is the most interesting one, however. They’ve let Littbarski go; I’m not really sure why he came in to replace McLaren. Instead, they’ve drafted in experienced Felix Magath, who coached the side to glory between 2007 and 2009, which was their best period by a mile. The players and fans love him and they play great football under him so I fully expect a spirited and efficient Wolfsburg display today, if only to impress their manager. Stuttgart have played well lately and they’ll probably give Wolfsburg a game but Wolfsburg’s favourite manager is back in town and that means that everything should go just right for them again in due course, starting today with a bit of luck! Incidentally, Magath has also coached Stuttgart before too so he does know the club that his Wolfsburg side are up against pretty damn well, in my view. Stuttgart still miss most of their defence with Boka an Delpierre joining long-term casualty Bouhlarouz on the sidelines and with no sulky Marica, Harnik, or Cacau available to Stuttgart today, it’s hard to see where the goals are coming from other than with pacey Kuzmanovic and target man Pogrebnyak, neither of which are outstanding. Wolfsburg have a virtually full-strength side here and I expect a big reaction to Magath’s appointment so backing Wolfsburg with draw no bet cover at 6/4 really appeals to me here.
Team news – VfB Stuttgart miss Boka, Boulahrouz, Delpierre, Cacau, Harnik, and Marica whereas VfL Wolfsburg miss Benaglio and Helmes.
Verdict: VfL Wolfsburg to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Chiasso vs Vaduz – away win at 5/4.
I may well end up with egg on my face here but these odds amuse me an awful lot as they seem to be entirely based on the Challenge League standings rather than the actual quality of either side.
True enough, Chiasso have played well this season and aren’t easy to beat – fair play to them. They’ve troubled a lot of sides with stout defending and swift counter-attacks and thus they’re to be taken seriously. However, it’s no coincidence at all that most of their defeats this season have come against the better sides ala Lugano, Lausanne Sports etc. and Vaduz are definitely one of those sides. Newly-promoted Chiasso may cause problems for Wohlen or Locarno, for example, but Vaduz? I just don’t see it. There’s a reason that Vaduz are doing so well and it’s because they’re the most potent side in the division currently, especially away from home where they average scoring nearly three goals per away game. They’ve won eight out of ten on the road this season and are a lot better than little Chiasso are, not to mention more experienced with the likes of Jehle and Burgmeier in their ranks, both of which are full internationals for Liechtenstein. Vaduz have won three consecutive games ahead of this one and thus bring good momentum into the game whereas Chiasso bring a goalless draw from their game with Aarau into this game so they’re not going to be over the moon at the moment. That said, I think they’re just enjoying the pride so I doubt their spirits will be dampened too much here but they’re frankly facing a side that is a lot better than they are and I can’t see anything outcome but Vaduz outscoring them here, even without Oehri in defence.
Team news – Vaduz miss Oehri and have doubts over Arlan and Ritzberger.
Verdict: Vaduz to win at 5/4.