TFT Issue 532!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Fluminense vs Ponte Preta – under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the Brazilian Serie A game in Rio de Janeiro between league leaders Fluminense and battling Ponte Preta.
Despite not exactly being a fan of them, I do fervently hope that Fluminense win Serie A this season because they’ve been by far the most consistent side in the championship. They’ve got the best manager in Abel Braga and they’ve got a bunch of hard-working and talented players that makes them good to watch. Unlike most other Brazilian sides, Fluminense can actually contain and frustrate sides, which is precisely why they tend to hold their leads. It’s not by accident that they’ve won two thirds of their away games this season. I genuinely can’t recall the last time a Serie A side won ten away games in the same season as it just doesn’t happen in Brazil! That should give you an idea of how strong Fluminense are as a machine and I completely respect Braga’s boys for it too.
However, there are times and places to back Fluminense and I don’t personally believe that this is one of them. You have to understand that although this side is a very complete unit, they do suffer when cornerstones are missing. For example, this side will rarely score goals if Fred is absent. That’s not because Fred is their best player but more because he gives them movement and finesse up front that they just don’t have when he’s not there. Fred is playing today, incidentally – this is just an example! However, there are two notable absentees for Fluminense today and they’re absentees that concern me a lot. Portuguese playmaker Deco is on the sidelines, which is a blow. He’s not been much of a mainstay for them because of his injuries so ordinarily his absence wouldn’t be big news. However, the absence of Thiago Neves, who is on international duty with Brazil, means that Fluminense find themselves without a recognisable playmaker, which is a big problem. Fred will only score goals if he’s given the opportunity to do so and as quick as the promising Wellington Nem is, he’s not what I would call a particularly creative player, especially whilst the limelight still captures his attention moreso than the three points of the team. There are plenty of engines in this team and I doubt that they’ll implode due to the absence of their playmakers but I find the chances of them scoring goals here to be significantly lessened as a result.
Unfortunately for Fluminense, they couldn’t have picked a worse team to face without their treasured playmakers as Ponte Preta are notorious for being hard to beat. This side has no concerns whatsoever about parking the bus and playing a physical game, hence them not often being annihlated in their away games. Goalscoring is not a forté of theirs and despite Roger no doubt being keen on scoring against his old club today, I very much doubt that their half-hearted attack will damage a very solid Fluminense defence. However, the Ponte Preta defence is better than it’s given credit for and with Rene returning in midfield for the visitors, they should form their usual compact formation as they seek to upset one of the heavyweights of the division. They’ve really enjoyed their trips to Rio de Janeiro this season, interestingly enough, winning at Botafogo and Flamengo whilst forcing Vasco da Gama into a heroic 3-2 victory. Ponte Preta are not afraid of their opponents, which is admirable, and I think that belief will see them cause a lot of problems today as Fluminense simply aren’t the same side without their playmakers.
I wouldn’t look beyond the home win here as I think Fluminense should have enough to make it happen. Convincingly, though? I very much doubt it. Ponte Preta aren’t in the same league as their hosts when it comes to comparing quality but you do have to question how well Fluminense will be able to break them down today. The odds on the home win are too short for my liking but I do like 10/11 on under 2.5 goals as I can’t see the hosts scoring more than twice and I don’t envision Ponte Preta scoring at all.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Additional games
Melbourne Heart vs Wellington Phoenix – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
After the derby win against Melbourne Victory, manager John Aloisi was quick to point out that this team will not be deploying the same in-your-face tactics as a mainstay of their game for the current A-League campaign and that’s not a surprise, really – they’d be knackered half-way through the season! Credit to Melbourne Heart for being smart enough to beat their more illustrious neighbours, though, not to mention being clinical when given the chance. Let’s face facts; Melbourne Heart are not an especially good side. They had a purple patch last season where they played some beautiful football but other than that, they seem to enjoy simply pissing other sides off, not to mention the betting community.
So why are we climbing aboard the Melbourne Heart train today? Well, it was clear to see in the opening game that Melbourne Heart are motivated by Aloisi, which is important. If this side works as hard in all of their games then they won’t lose many games. They were smart enough to poach towering striker MacAllister from the ruins of Gold Coast United for the upcoming season, who is already showing signs of forming a deadly duo with his quick strike partner Williams. The goal threat that Melbourne Heart offer this season looks much more evident and I like that. Their defence does need some work here but this side looks improved to me.
Of course, the other factor behind this bet is the woeful situation that Wellington Phoenix find themselves in ahead of this game. I rate Ricki Herbert as being one of the top coaches in the A-League and I’ll almost never oppose today’s visitors when they’re playing in New Zealand because they’re a nightmare to face there. However, the fact remains that they’re often vulnerable away from home and they’re missing an awful lot of players today. Few clubs have as thin a squad as Wellington Phoenix do and the fact that they’re missing so many instrumental players today makes me think that they’re going to take a beating today, irrespective of their zesty and admirable approach to their football games.
Just to give you an idea of the problems that Herbert has ahead of this game, bear in mind that they’re missing two of their usual back four (Sigmund and Lochhead), two of their regular midfield four (Bertos and Sanchez, who are the only two remaining following the departures of Daniel, Brown, and Ward), not to mention their new signing Brockie (set to become a regular) and the doubts over Lia. Both goalkeepers (Moss and Paston) are absent and a number of back-up players are out too. They still have Ifill and Huysegems up front, which is dangerous as the Belgian hitman has already made his mark on the A-League and anyone who saw him play in the Netherlands knows how good he can be. There is zero service available to the battling forward today, however, and I find the chances of the Phoenix leaving this game without conceding at least two goals today as unlikely to say the very least.
For me, the value should be on the Heart to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Verdict: Melbourne Heart to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Santos vs Vascoo da Gama – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Most bookies have slashed the odds on this outcome but our friends at MarathonBet have happily not done so, hence my interest in this game.
I previewed Santos’ trip to Internacional in the last round of fixtures and called under 2.5 goals in that game due to both sides missing the majority of their respective attacks. Although the result was actually 1-1, which involved a lot of squeaky bum time, the fact is that both sides demonstrated a complete lack of finesse in the final third and I expect Santos to do the same again today.
I don’t want to give the impression that Santos are a one-man team because they’re really not. The players of Santos are brought up to play attractive football so Santos are always a side to take seriously. Muricy is the ideal coach to allow them to showcase their talents, too. However, Neymar is the heartbeat of the team and his absence causes them a lot of problems, especially against stubborn sides. Take the game against Coritiba in the past couple of weeks, for example. Santos were losing and weren’t doing much about it until Neymar dribbled most of the Coritiba team before coolly rounding the goalkeeper and scoring from an acute angle. Santos then attacked with belief and ended up winning the game 2-1. As you can see, Neymar’s uses are not solely restricted to direct impact. The wonderkid is out today, though – he’s off playing football with Brazil. Given that Santos have recently sold Ganso to bitter rivals Sao Paulo and that they also miss their clinical striker Andre, I find the chances of Santos destroying Vasco da Gama as unlikely to say the least. Victor Andrade has looked promising, Miralles knows how to find the net, and the driving runs of Felipe Anderson will always pose a threat of some kind to the opponents of Santos. I don’t think I am being unfair by stating that I don’t fear them as much here when you consider how strong Vasco are at the back, though.
Santos will attack here but the fact is that they react the best when they are attacked. Are Vasco going to attack them here? I’d be surprised to see it. Vasco have earned their reputation in Brazil this season of being hard to beat and even with Dede out today, I expect more of the same from the Rio de Janeiro outfit. However, Vasco themselves have a couple of problems ahead of this game with their usual back four all being absent tonight. Luan Teixeira returns to ease at least some of Marcelo Oliveira’s worries but the most important factor here for me is the return of Carlos Alberto. He’s the engine of the team; he picks them up and carries them when things aren’t going well and he’s not afraid to track back either. Vasco aren’t as solid as they are defensively because of their rock-solid back four but because their midfield protects them well and Carlos Alberto helps on that front. Set piece specialist Juninho is a big doubt today and given that he’s one of only a few actual goal-threats that Vasco have, it’s hard to see Vasco doing much damage at the other end of the pitch. Alecsandro can find the net if given the service but aside from that, Vasco are somewhat helpless when it comes to goalscoring. They’re usually one of the most frustrating sides in Brazil to face at home, though – nobody enjoys playing them because of how hard they work to protect their goal. That’s why I’m confident that Vasco will still defend well enough to keep Santos at bay today.
Let’s face it; all but one of Vasco’s away games this season have gone under 2.5 goals and that really isn’t a coincidence. A Santos side bereft of some of its most potent attcking options versus a workaholic Vasco side leaves me with the distinct impression that we’ll only see an under 2.5 goals scoreline tonight.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart – Mehbrahtu is absent. Germano is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Sanchez, Pantelis, Downey, Pavlovic, Totori, Moss, Paston, Lochhead, Sigmund, Bertos, and Brockie are absent. Lia is a doubt.
Central Coast Mariners – Oates and Caceres are absent. Kwasnik is a doubt.
Perth Glory – Berger and Smeltz are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro – Victor, Rever, Danilinho, Leandro Donizete, and Seginho are absent. Ronaldinho, Pierre, and Luiz Eduardo return.
Sport Recife – Moacir, Willian Rocha, Marquinhos Gabriel, and Reinaldo are absent. Tobi and Diego Ivo return.
Coritiba – Willian, Ruidiaz, Ayrton, Pereira, Rafael Bonfim, Everton Costa, Emerson, Sergio Manoel, Jackson, and Keirrison are absent. Demerson and Escudero return.
Bahia – Gabriel, Titi, Danny Morais, Coelho, Avine, Jonas Carioca, Junior Pipoca, and Souza are absent. Kleberson and Ciro return.
Nautico – Patric, Ramirez, Alemao, Ronaldo Alves, and Marlon are absent. Kieza and Elicarlos return.
Palmeiras – Mauricio Ramos, Daniel Carvalho, Henrique, Barcos, Joao Vitor, Juninho, Valdivia, Fernandinho, and Wesley are absent. Artur returns.
Santos – Neymar, Andre, Edu Dracena, Rafael Galhardo, Alison, Paulo Henrique, and Fucile are absent. Leo and Bruno Peres return.
Vasco da Gama – Dede, Tenorio, Willian Matheus, Douglas, and Auremir are absent. Juninho and Renato Silva are doubts. Carlos Alberto and Luan Teixeira return.
Sao Paulo – Lucas Moura, Fabricio, and Ganso are absent.
Figueirense – Tulio, Fernandes, Heber, and Abreu are absent. Jackson and Sandro Silva return.
Fluminense – Deco, Thiago Neves, and Leandro Euzebio are absent.
Ponte Preta – Rildo, Gustavo, and Wescley are absent. Rene returns.
Gremio – Moreno, Kleber, Fabio Aurelio, Elano, Gilberto Silva, Bertoglio, and Fernando are absent. Ze Roberto returns.
Botafogo – Jefferson, Lodeiro, Fabio Ferreira, Lucas Zen, and Marcelo Mattos are absent. Renato, Antonio Carlos, and Brinner return.
Polish Liga 1:
Flota Swinoujscie – No news.
Warta Poznan – Mysiak, Trochim, and Magdziarz are absent.
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Freamunde – Lio is absent.
Atletico Club de Portugal – Rolao, Rony, Rui Varela, and Lito are absent.
Feirense – Stenio, William, Bastian, Jacob, Joao Ricardo, and Serginho are absent.
Tondela – Jo, Piojo, and Tiago Carmeiro are absent.
Belenenses – Joao Afonso, Eridson, and Rambe are absent.
Portimonense – Ricardo, William, Patrizio, Simy, and Vitor are absent.