TFT Issue 534!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
As ever, please be wary with the International games as they’re rarely kind to any gamblers!
Featured game
Faroe Islands vs Republic of Ireland – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the World Cup Qualifier in Torshavn between Faroe Islands and Republic of Ireland.
Faroe Islands gave Sweden a stern test in their last game with their Scandinavian rivals struggling to penetrate them, often relying on long shots from Ibrahimovic to trouble them, which Gunnar Nielsen largely dealt with. Dealing with the Faroese side on their artificial turf is very hard, though, and even Sweden struggled on that front. For a good example of that, check how high the ball bounces for Ibrahimovic’s fortunate goal that ultimately led to Sweden winning 1-2 – he doesn’t think it’ll go that high, hence the scuffed shot. Artificial turf is a bitch to play on if you’re not used to it, simply put. Faroe Islands are getting better too; credit where it’s due. Benjaminsen, Suni Olsen, Arnbjorn Hansen, Christian Holst – they’ve all been around, you know? They know the script. Olsen has impressed me this season with his movement and finesse despite his tender years and the displays of the excellent Hallur Hansen have seen him move to Denmark to play for Aalborg BK. Samuelsen of HB Torshavn is always a threat and despite a lack of mobility in the Faroese defence, they’re a capable side that won’t lie down for anyone. Sweden scored twice against them in their last game due to a scuffed shot and a lovely curling shot that came about because Tor Naes was off the field receiving treatment at the time. I won’t disrespect Sweden – they took three points, after all – but that game was one that they wouldn’t have won on another day. They’re not the first to struggle in Torshavn, either – it’s rapidly becoming the place to not go with Italy, Estonia, Slovenia, and Northern Ireland all facing really tough games here over the past couple of years.
Republic of Ireland couldn’t enter the game in a worse frame of mind, either. Robbie Keane’s return is a small glimmer of light at the end of a long, dark tunnel following their humiliating 1-6 defeat against Germany. Losing against Germany at home is acceptable for most nations and Ireland are no exception. However, I’ve never seen an Irish side play with such a lack of spirit, nor an Irish side that were so utterly woeful in defence. They really missed the quality that has now departed the squad and they looked worryingly average, truth be told. Ireland still have some very good players, enough so for them to win what is essentially a very tough game today. Convincingly, though? Not for my money. They shouldn’t be as short as they are here. Ireland are good at working hard and should be able to do a better job defensively than Sweden did but their firepower (or lack of) is a real problem today, in my opinion.
For me, there really should be value in taking under 2.5 goals at evens in this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
Andorra vs Estonia – away win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
What can I say? I may be in a minority, based on the rising odds, but I believe that Estonia are much better than Andorra right now. Fair enough – Estonia have struggled of late due to the continued absence of centre-back duo Piiroja and Stepanov, both of which are frankly irreplaceable. However, we’re talking about Andorra as their opponents here, a side that really shouldn’t trouble Estonia anywhere near as much as Romania or Hungary, for example. It’s the attack of Estonia that interests me and that’s where they really excel. Just look at the forwards that aren’t in their squad – Zahovaiko, Saag, Voskoboinikov, and Zenjov! Old hand Oper, clever Ojamaa, and the brutal Neemelo are the options that Estonia have up front tonight and that’s enough for me to take them to do the damage here. They’re not short of support, either – KuPS duo Puri and Purje alongside Lindpere and Vassiljev provide potent threats whilst Dmitrijev mops up the mess. I really like the balance of the Estonian midfield and their attack is dangerous. As long as their midfield protects their defence well enough and Estonia work hard then I can see them covering the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Verdict: Estonia to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Romania vs Netherlands – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Siding with Romania is rapidly becoming a habit of mine! Although I’m not strictly backing them to do anything here, this bet does hinge on their tactical approach being successful today.
Say what you will about their uncompromising style but Piturca knows how to organise this Romanian side. They work bloody hard to keep their places in this team and they have two very solid banks of four. They’re extremely strong in their air and won’t shy away from tough challenges. It’s really not a coincidence that Romania’s games against big sides often go under 2.5 goals because of their “bunker” tactics and I expect more of the same today. This side will not give an inch at any stage and only ever look vulnerable if they concede an early goal. Boss Piturca has already stated that he’d be happy with a draw and that’s no surprise, really. Romania will play for the draw as they always do against big sides and who knows – maybe they’ll get it.
I like the names that van Gaal has called into the Dutch squad but they’re not quite a team yet, are they? The absence of Robben and Sneijder does rob Netherlands of some much needed experience against dogged defensive sides like Romania so you have to wonder how much patience their talented kids will have when it comes to breaking down their hosts. The likes of Strootman, Lens, and Narsingh are very talented players but this kind of test isn’t one you’d often find in the Netherlands so I do wonder how they’ll fare here. Lens in particular has been excellent this season but again, this is not something that regularly encounters playing against. Huntelaar and van Persie, not to mention van der Vaart (who already has over 100 caps despite not being 30 yet!) and Afellay are what I call match-winners and could decide the outcome of this game. If Netherlands take the lead then they should hold it, irrespective of their largely inexperienced defence, as Romania’s attack is fairly predictable. De Jong will protect his defence well too, let’s not forget. So, yeah – I like the names in the Dutch side but this is a bigger test than the odds reflect so backing them to win here without watching them in-play concerns me.
However, nailing under 2.5 goals at 9/10 appeals to me a lot. A draw suits both sides and nobody wants to get injured ahead of the league matches at weekend. The Romanians won’t lie down for anyone and the Dutch may lack a bit of patience that is required to break through their hosts. Therefore, my call is under 2.5 goals here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
World Cup Qualifiers:
Turkey – Burak Yilmaz, Selcuk Inan, Arda Turan, Hakan Balta, Mehmet Topal, and Gokhan Gonul are absent.
Hungary – Juhasz and Dzsudzsak are absent. Pinter is a doubt. Koman returns.
Romania – Mutu and Grozav are doubts.
Bulgaria – Gargorov, V.Minev, and Bandalovski are absent. Sarmov, Zanev, and S.Dyakov return.
Croatia – Vukojevic, Olic, and Ilicevic are absent.
Denmark – Cornelius and N.Jorgensen are absent.
Poland – Blaszczykowski is absent. Polanski returns.
Lithuania – Mikoliunas and E.Cesnauskis are absent. D.Cesnauskis is a doubt.
Israel – Atar, Tibi, and Shish are absent. Melikson is a doubt. Vermouth returns.
Portugal – Coentrao and Meireles are absent.
Italy – Maggio is absent. Buffon is a doubt. Balotelli returns. Chiellini should replace Bonucci.
Spain – Pique and Puyol are absent. Iniesta returns.
Netherlands – Schaken, Robben, van der Wiel, and Sneijder are absent.
Czech Republic – Rosicky and Kolar are absent. Same starting eleven as against Malta.
Scotland – Naismith, Brown, Forrest, and Webster are absent.
Ukraine – Kucher is absent. Konoplyanka returns.
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Spain U21 – Canales, Cuenca, Muniesa, and Alcantara are absent.