TFT Issue 539!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Spartak Moscow vs SL Benfica – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Russia between Spartak Moscow and SL Benfica.
Whatever you make of Spartak’s displays thus far, you have to at least admit that they’re entertaining. They gave Barcelona a fright at the Nou Camp before handing Celtic their first away win in the UEFA Champions League since about 4 BC! I like watching Spartak, if only for their comedy defending. At times, their attacking is quite brilliant and that’s especially evident on the artificial turf of Luzhniki. They possess a lot of attacking options from Kallstrom to McGeady to Bilyaletdinov to Ari to Welliton and each one of them is very dangerous on their day, although it’s worth noting that McGeady is out today. Combined, they generally give a defence a tough night and that’s precisely what I expect tonight. Let’s face it; Spartak have done pretty well in their two games when it’s come to goalscoring but the fact is that they’ve got nothing from either game. Their opponents Benfica are yet to score in this competition this season and yet Benfica have more points than Spartak do, who have scored four times; go figure! The problem is that Spartak have no organisation nor composure at the back and sides in the UEFA Champions League will lap that up all day long. Whether it’s a tactical side like Celtic or a flambuoyant side like Barcelona, Spartak are good for conceding goals. That should be even more obvious today with number one Dikan out, back-up Pesjakov out (Rebrov will need to go in goal for the first time this season), their best centre-back Pareja out, and their best holding midfielder Romulo out. To say that their defence has been decimated would be a fair observation, in my view. Still, as long as they keep their cool then they manage to score goals too, though, which makes them an ideal over 2.5 goals side, especially in games like these where they frankly need to win.
Benfica have been their typical selves this season by playing well en mass, creating a lot of chances, scoring a few goals, but defending horribly. However, the sale of Javi Garcia coupled with the absence of Luisao has basically sent the Benfica defence into chaos. At the present time, any side can and will score against them; that’s just how it is. It’s far too easy to take advantage of their suicidal high line and their inability to win the ball back. Aimar’s absence isn’t ideal as he provides a cool head and a gifted playmaker all in one whilst most of their midfield don’t have his kind of composure. The return of Gaitan makes their attack equally as deadly, however, with the proviso that Paraguayan powerhouse Cardozo brings his shooting boots with him. Benfica are quick with their passing and are very fast, which should mean that they’ll tear the Spartak defence apart, in my opinion. However, they’re in the same boat as their hosts in he sense that they cannot hold a lead with any conviction whatsoever.
Conclusion? We really should see goals here! Benfica not scoring at defensive Celtic is acceptable. Benfica not scoring against kamikaze Spartak Moscow is unthinkable. For me, over 2.5 goals is a steal at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional game
Nordsjaelland vs Juventus – away win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
By pure chance, I ended up watching both of these two sides at weekend and it only cemented my opinion of the gulf in class between them.
Nordsjaelland huffed and puffed but frankly did very little to Silkeborg on Friday. Keeping the ball wasn’t really an issue for them but doing something constructive with it proved to be very difficult. Everything went through John; nobody else had any idea of how to penetrate the iron wall which Silkeborg brought to them. They eventually found a way through and Silkeborg capitulated, letting in three late goals but the scoreline did not tell the whole story. Nordsjaelland are good by Danish standards but the Champions League is just beyond them, in my view. They put together some nice moves at the Donbass Arena but lost. They had some spells against Chelsea but got battered. The fact is that they’re still yet to score after two games and they’ve lost both games because sides do far more in the final third than they do. I really admire what Nordsjaelland have achieved merely by getting to this stage but this game, just like every game in this group, looks beyond them.
Juventus were patient but tenacious against Napoli at weekend and eventually got the break-through as Caceres thundered a header home from a corner before Pogba struck a beautiful volley to secure a potentially invaluable 2-0 win against their bitter rivals. Juventus know how to play good football but they’re also experts in winning ugly. They’ve got a massive squad packed full of quality in every area and I really fancy them to do well this season. No opponent has made them look out of their depth and their ability to score goals from anywhere is quite remarkable. It’s really rather integral that Juventus pick up three points in Denmark today following their two draws to date and I’d be surprised if they didn’t, to be honest – they’re too good for Nordsjaelland, whether it’s because of their superior individuals or because they take their chances much better.
For me, the -1.5 handicap at evens is well worth a punt today. Taking a -1.5 handicap away from home is always risky but with Nordsjaelland struggling in the final third and Juventus clinical from the word “go”, I think Juventus will beat it today.
Verdict: Juventus to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Juventus – Asamoah and Pepe are absent. Vucinic and Buffon return.
Celtic – Nouioui and McGeouch are absent. Commons, Forrest, and Wilson are doubts.
SL Benfica – Aimar, Nolito, Carlos Martins, and Kardec are absent. Gaitan returns.
Sporting Braga – Manoel, Djamal, and Douglao are absent. Salino, Elderson return.
CFR Cluj – Ronny, Martinez, Sare, Ganea, and Deac are absent. Sougou is a doubt.
LOSC Lille – Debuchy, Gueye, and Mavuba are absent.
Spartak Moscow – McGeady, Dikan, Pesyakov, Parshivlyuk, Gatagov, Pareja, Romulo, and Yakovlev are absent. Rebrov returns.
Barcelona – Muniesa, Abidal, Busquets, Cuenca, Pique, Puyol, Alves, and Thiago Alcantara are absent.
Manchester United – Vidic, Evra, and Ferdinand are absent. Young, Smalling, and Jones are doubts.
Chelsea – Terry returns.
Galatasaray – Kaya and Altintop return.
Valencia CF – Canales and Feghouli are absent.