TFT Issue 541!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Olympique Lyonnais vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – lay Olympique Lyonnais at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in France between Olympique Lyonnais and Athletic Club de Bilbao.
I’ve been a huge critic of Lyon’s for the past few years and rightly so, in my view. They play horrible football and don’t score anywhere near enough goals nowadays. Quite how they’re shorter than evens to beat a side that is better than them tonight is beyond me. Still, the bookies are the rich ones, not us, so perhaps they know something that I don’t!
I do watch a fair amount of both clubs’ games (under protest when watching Lyon!!), though, and I can’t see Athletic losing with that in mind. Athletic’s ability to keep the ball, to make changes, to impose themselves upon their opponents is uncanny. Their results lately have not been all that inspiring but their displays have been very encouraging as they’re starting to rediscover the form of last season. They’re still conceding like crazy because that’s simply what they do nowadays. However, they’re an attacking threat at all times and it pleases me to see them returning to form. The absence of Muniain isn’t ideal tonight but if you want my honest opinion then I’d say that he has stagnated in his progress as a footballer. He’s not really improved for the past twelve months or so, despite a lot of experience. I do sometimes wonder if it’s because Bielsa plays him too much – he’s still a kid, after all – but the point I am making is that he’s not as big a loss now as he would have been a couple of years ago. De Marcos, Susaeta, Isma Lopez, and Ander Herrera should provide enough support to Aduriz up front and the combinations that they’ve all shown thus far have been impressive so yeah – I rate Athletic’s chances here.
Lyon are no mugs, obviously. They do have some very good players in their side and a lot of experience; I can’t ignore that. Lopez is a top-class finisher on his day and even bumbling Gomis can be a handful sometimes, which he’s shown on a number of occasions this season. There are too many players in this side that aren’t really good enough to wear the shirt, though – players like Briand, for example. It’s a very youthful Lyon team, which doesn’t help in terms of experience nor organisation. There’s plenty of spirit and pace in their squad but not a lot of knowhow. Lyon have looked nervous in both UEFA Europa League games thus far and that makes me think that they’ll struggle against a rejuvenated Athletic side today.
For me, the value has to be in laying Lyon as long as Athletic take their chances.
Verdict: Lay Olympique Lyonnais at 9/10.
Additional games
Rosenborg BK vs Metalist Kharkiv – away win at 7/5.
As mentioned in the free tip preview today, Rosenborg lock horns with Molde at weekend in what could well be a pivotal game in the Eliteserien. You do have to wonder how keen Rosenborg will be on beating Metalist today with that in mind. Rosenborg do have a large squad, it has to be said, but there isn’t as much quality in their depth as there used to be. Add to that the fact that they’re hosting a very strong Metalist Kharkiv side and you have a tough game for the Norwegian heavyweights. Rosenborg’s lack of firepower on the European stage concerns me because as effective as Iversen and Prica may be in Norway, they have nowhere near the same effect at this level. Rosenborg still aren’t an easy side to face but Metalist have proven to be one of the most accomplished sides in Europe over the past few years when it comes to playing away from home. They have the perfect blend of youth and experience in their squad, mixing Ukrainian steel in defence with South American samba in attack. Subsequently, Metalist are one of a few sides that can actually hold a lead whilst being likely to actually take the lead. They’re always a goal threat and even without Sosa today, you have to fancy the Ukrainian side to edge this one today, especially on the back of an impressive 1-3 win at Dynamo Kiev at weekend. For me, Metalist are too long at 7/5, hence my selection.
Verdict: Metalist Kharkiv to win at 7/5.
Liverpool vs Anzhi Makhachkala – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
I’ll openly admit that as a devoted Manchester United fan, I am not fond of Liverpool. I like to think that I can be neutral when required, however!
On this occasion, I do feel that my decision to oppose the Merseyside outfit will be vindicated. Liverpool are not taking this competition seriously and who can blame them? A number of sides use it to give their youngsters a chance and to me, that makes perfect sense for big clubs. Now, as well as Liverpool have done when it’s come to going forward and scoring goals, they’ve been an absolute nightmare at the back. Conceding three goals at Young Boys Bern (who had sold star striker Mayuka to Southampton before they met Liverpool) and then conceding three goals at home against an Udinese side that lacks firepower just isn’t good enough, especially not when Liverpool had the lead in both games. Young Boys Bern can’t defend and Udinese don’t travel well but this Anzhi side is built on its defence; they’re more than capable of holding their own at the back here. I expect Liverpool to rest some players here and if they do then a star-studded Anzhi side should be able to beat them. Unlike a lot of people, I don’t rate Anzhi’s attack particularly highly as it’s quite one-dimensional and Anzhi never attack often enough for their forwards to be able to shine. Still, Traore has done really well this season and he’s had plenty of support from their excellent midfield so Anzhi will be a threat here, I’m sure. Anzhi did well against Spartak Moscow in their 2-1 win at weekend and that momentum should see them do well here. Anzhi are more than capable of holding the lead that they really should take against a shaky Liverpool defence and I’m not convinced that Liverpool have enough to upset the Russian billionaires unless Rodgers pulls a card out of his sleeve and starts with Suarez etc.
For me, there really should be value on taking Anzhi to win this one with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Levante – Dudka is absent.
Atletico Madrid – Arda Turan is absent.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Ruiz de Galarreta and Muniain are absent.
Metalist Kharkiv – Sosa is absent.
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – Konoplyanka is a doubt.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv – Abutbul is absent. Edel is a doubt.
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona – Hasarma is absent. Einbinder returns.
Steaua Bucharest – Marinkovic and Prepelita are doubts.
Internazionale – Sneijder, Stankovic, Mariga, Chivu, and Mudingayi are absent.
Lazio – Marchetti, Ederson, Lulic, Stankevicius, and Radu are absent.
SSC Napoli – Campagnaro, Maggio, Hamsik, and Rinaudo are absent.
Udinese – Allan, Maicousel, Barreto, Basta, Pinzi, Pasquale, and Muriel are absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Hanousek and Prochazka are absent.
Sparta Prague – No absentees.
Helsingborg – Baffo and Sadiku are absent.
AIK Solna – No news.
Fenerbahce – Yobo, Meireles, Topuz, and Sam are absent. Topal and Gonul return.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Ismailov, Arias, Mendes, and Carrillo are absent. Labyad, Betinho, and Robo return.
Maritimo Funchal – Roberge is a doubt.
Academica de Coimbra – Magique, Helder Cabral, Reiner, Carlos Saleiro, and Marcos Paulo are absent.
Club Brugge – Donk, Tchite, and Almeback are doubts.
Racing Genk – No absentees.
Rubin’ Kazan – Eduardo is absent. Bocchetti, Tore, and Ryzhikov are doubts.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Diarra, Akhmedov, and Zhusiley are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Pieters, Toivonen, and van Bommel are absent.
Twente Enschede – Bulykin, Fer, Rendla, and Bjelland are absent.
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense – Anderson and Leandro Euzebio are absent. Jean returns.
Coritiba – Keirrison, Jackson, Demerson, Sergio Manoel, Everton Costa, Bonfim, Robinho, Ayrton, Cleiton, and Thiago Primao are absent. Pereira, Escudero, Lincoln, and Deivid return.
Ponte Preta – Rene and Baraka are absent. Tiago Alves and Marcinho return.
Cruzeiro – Leo, Victorino, Tinga, Montillo, Borges, Wallyson, and Alex Silva are absent. Wellington Paulista returns.
Santos – Paulo Henrique, Leo, Fucile, Edu Dracena, Alison, and Bruno Peres are absent. Miralles is a doubt.
Nautico – Marlon, Ronaldo Alves, Ramirez are absent. Elicarlos and Douglas Santos return.