TFT Issue 543!
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Featured game
Gil Vicente vs SL Benfica – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres game between Gil Vicente and heavyweights SL Benfica.
On paper, you’d naturally fancy Benfica for this game. To be fair, you’d probably have to favour them against almost every other side in Portugal. However, football is rarely solely about paper and I think we may see an example of that today.
Fair enough – Gil Vicente lost Hugo Vieira and Ze Luis pre-season, both of which did well for them last season. I think it’s fair to say that their attack isn’t as good without them although it’s also fair to say that Luiz Carlos etc. do bring their own threats. Gil Vicente are notorious in Portugal for playing good football, football without fear. They don’t have a big budget or anything like that but their team plays as one and works very hard for one another. This is a very difficult game for all Portuguese sides, in my view, and Benfica are no exception. Only three sides this season have kept Gil Vicente out and given that two of those sides were Maritimo Funchal and Porto respectively, I think it’s fair to say that their attack is still strong. Gil Vicente bring momentum into this game and in front of their home crowd, they’ll believe that they can win this game and why not?
Benfica might well be the better side but you need to play well collectively to get a positive result against Gil Vicente and Benfica simply aren’t doing that consistently enough this season. Cardozo is hit-and-miss, Aimar is spending a lot of time on the sidelines, and Gaitan is yet to discover his best form this season, in my view. Benfica are not a one-man team but if you remove a few key elements and then deprive them of their two biggest defensive assets then you’re going to see them struggle. They enter this game on the back of a dismal 2-1 defeat at Spartak Moscow in Russia earlier this week and may be tired from the journey. They played their game on artificial turf and that’s never good for players who aren’t used to it as they sustain injuries more easily on it etc. Personally, I think that the trip to Gil Vicente is one of the last ones that they’d have wanted after that trip and with Aimar out today, I think Benfica could well drop points here.
Would I bet on that happening? Absolutely not! Benfica are the better side and realistically should win the game. Indeed, if things fall into place as Jorge Jesus hopes then Benfica will win this one without much fuss. I’ve watched a number of Benfica games this season, though, and they’re conceding goals far too easily, even against awful sides like Beira-Mar. Taking on a side that can actually score goals is very dangerous indeed. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market but both sides are good at attacking and scoring goals so may call is over 2.5 goals at 5/6, which has happened a large number of times between these two sides over the years.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional game
Flora Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
I’m sorry, guys, but odds of 6/5 for Nomme Kalju with draw no bet is a bargain against any side in Estonia right now and I’m happy to take it here. Sure, they don’t have to win this game; the Meistriliiga crown is already theirs. However, do you really think that they’ll roll over and allow local rivals Flora Tallinn to take three much-needed points? I very much doubt it. Back-to-back defeats at Flora Tallinn this season (both of which were fortuious, if my memory serves me correctly) could have cost Nomme Kalju the title so I doubt that they’re in a generous frame of mind.
Flora Tallinn need the points to fend off bitter rivals Levadia Tallinn in their battle for second place but their challenge has been complicated by the departure of boss Reim and his assistant manager, not to mention the news that the club has a precarious financial position. Star midfielder Minkenen has randomly left the club and this leaves Flora’s youthful side with even less leaders. I think Flora are really going to struggle against a superior Nomme Kalju side without him, especially in the knowledge that they have to attack the reigning champions whilst Nomme Kalju can sit back and counter-attack.
For me, everything opposes Flora Tallinn here. Nomme Kalju may rotate their squad but they’ve got the biggest and best squad in Estonia so that’s not an issue. They should be motivated to beat their local rivals and it’ll take more than a 0-6 win at Flora Paide for me to believe that this Flora Tallinn side is in any kind of shape to beat Nomme Kalju today, irrespective of the fact that they need it more. Nomme Kalju are the best goalscoring side in Estonia and attacking them tends to allow them to showcase their finesse in the final third so I certainly don’t envy Flora Tallinn’s position today.
It’s going to take a terrific display from the hosts or a poor displays from the visitors for this one to lose today, in my view. I can’t possibly pass up on taking Nomme Kalju to win this game with draw no bet cover at 6/5 with the above in mind, though – they should be too good for their desperate hosts.
Verdict: Nomme Kalju to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Team news
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro – Romagnoli and Voboril are absent. Luna is a doubt.
Quilmes – W.Olivera, Caneo, and Garnier are absent. Telechea and Carli are doubts.
San Martin de San Juan – Pocrnjic is absent.
Atletico Rafaela – Bovaglio and Grazzini are absent. Sara and Eluchans are doubts.
Estudiantes De La Plata – Gelabert and Angeleri are absent.
All Boys – Ahumada is absent. Vildozo is a doubt.
Newell’s Old Boys – P.Perez is absent. Maxi Rodriguez and Sperdutti are doubts.
Arsenal de Sarandi – D.Torres is a doubt.
Velez Sarsfield – Cerro and Copete are absent. Peruzzi is a doubt.
Racing Club Avellaneda – No absentees.
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United – McKain is absent. Caravella is a doubt.
Wellington Phoenix – Sanchez, Pantelis, and Pavlovic are absent. Durante is a doubt.
Brisbane Roar – Franjic and Meyer are doubts.
Western Sydney Wanderers – Trifiro is a doubt.
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians – Danilo, Emerson, and Wallace are absent.
Vasco da Gama – Rodolfo, Luan, Dede, Chaparro, Alecsandro, and Tenorio are absent.
Internacional – Ygor, Dagoberto, Datolo, Damiao, and Mike are absent.
Palmeiras – Daniel Carvalho, Betinho, Valdivia, Joao Vitor, Fernandinho, and Thiago Heleno are absent. Joao Denoni, Maikon Leite, and Correa return.
Botafogo – Lucas Zen is absent. Elkeson, Marcio Azevedo, and Fabio Ferreira return.
Atletico Goianiense – Marcos, Felipe Brisola, Adriano Pimenta, and Bida are absent. Joilson and Marcos return.
Figueirense – Ricardo, Heber, Fernandes, Joao Paulo, Edson, and Caio are absent. Claudinei and Abreu return.
Sport Recife – Magrao, Renan Teixeira, Diego Ivo, and Gilsinho are absent.
Sao Paulo – Canete, Fabricio, Ganso, and Jadson are absent. Osvaldo is a doubt.
Bahia – Lulinha, Avine, and Fahel are absent. Jones Carioca, Helder, and Souza return.
Gremio – Ze Roberto and Fabio Aurelio are absent. Anderson Pico and Marcelo Moreno return.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna – P.Denchev is absent. Kitanov and Alexandrov are doubts.
Lokomotiv Sofia – Dafchev returns.
Montana – Tsvetkovski is absent. Mechechiev, Lahchev, Pashov, and Todorov are doubts.
Litex Lovech – Jelenkovic is absent.
Botev Plovdiv – No absentees.
CSKA Sofia – Bandalovski and Karachanakov are absent. Platini returns.
Slavia Sofia – Popara, Yankov, and Genev are absent.
Minior Pernik – No absentees.
Etar – Marques, Stankev, and Anev have left. Mahamat and Takak may debutise. Dayat is the new boss.
Botev Vratsa – Seleste has left.
Levski Sofia – Vutov and Vesalov are absent.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – V.Georgiev and Diego are doubts.
Chernomorets Burgas – Boli is absent. Mendes may debutise.
Ludogorets – No absentees.
Beroe – Martins and Iliev are absent. Dzaferovic is a doubt. New boss – Hubchev.
Pirin Gotse Delchev – No absentees.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Zadar – No news.
Rijeka – No absentees.
Dinamo Zagreb – Tomacek and Cop are absent. Calello, Pivaric, Brozovic, and Sammir are doubts.
Cibalia Vinkovci – Misic, Bartolovic, and Muznjak are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg – Bech is absent. Pourie and Thorbjorn Holst return.
Randers – Keller and Fischer are absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Tammilehto returns.
Inter Turku – Antunez, Obilor, Nyman, Kauko, and Diallo are absent.
FC Lahti – Lansitalo, Backman, and Kari are absent.
KuPS Kuopio – Puri and Sohna are absent. Ilo and James return.
IFK Mariehamn – Okodugha and Trafford are absent. Jagne is a doubt.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Koskinen is absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Wusu is absent. Korhonen and Szerovay are big doubts. Viljala likely to debutise.
HJK Helsinki – No news.
TPS Turku – Agyeman and S.Makinen are absent.
Jaro Pietarsaari – No news.
VPS Vaasa – Engstrom and Abdulahi are absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Robinson and McFaul are absent.
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille – Bonnart, Gueye, and Mavuba are absent. Bruno returns.
Valenciennes – Traore, Mater, Massampu, and Djuric are absent. Nery and Pujol return.
Montpellier HSC – Ait-Fana and Yanga-Mbiwa are absent. Bocaly and Estrada return.
OGC Nice – Anin, Bahoken, Pentecote, M’Bow, Fofana, and Dao Castellana are absent.
AS Nancy-Lorraine – Zenke, Bakar, Rachid, Dampha, Muratori, and Jeanvier are absent. Grange returns.
Paris Saint-Germain – Alex, Chantome, Lavezzi, Hoarau, Lugano, Thiago Motta, Sissoko, and Nene are absent. Bodmer, Luyindula, and Verratti return.
Stade de Reims – Sekkat and Odair Fortes are absent. Fauvergue returns.
Troyes – Grax, Brechet, Thiago, Colin, Yamissi, Drouin, and Faussurier are absent. Rincon and N’Sakala return.
Sochaux – Daf, Dias, Mikari, Peybernes, Duplus, Lopy, Butin, Prcic, and Doubai are absent.
Evian Thonon Gaillard – M’Barki, M’Madi, Dhaouadi, Kone, Bugnet, Cambon, and Khelifa are absent. Govou, Barbosa, and Ehret return.
Toulouse – Zebina is absent. Sissoko and M’Bengue return.
Stade Brestois – Traore, Ba, Soumah, Khaled, and Alphonse are absent. Ayite, Dernis, and Culma return.
Italian Serie A:
Siena – D’Agostino, Campagnolo, Martinez, Rodriguez, and Larrondo are absent.
Palermo – Milanovic and Hernandez are absent.
AC Milan – Didac Vila, Muntari, Strasser, and De Sciglio are absent. Robinho and Mesbah are doubts.
Genoa – Ferronetti, Vargas, Borriello, and Canini are absent. Rossi and Anselmo are doubts. New boss – Del Neri.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atlantas – No absentees.
Suduva Marijampole – Tumosa is absent. Boss Lubsys has left.
Banga Gargzdai – Pocevicius is absent.
Ekranas Panevezys – Urdinov is absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II – Lumu and van der Reijt are absent.
ADO Den Haag – Coutinho is absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Sno, Amieux, and Loen are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Djum and Delorge are absent.
VVV Venlo – Maguire and Altheer are absent.
NAC Breda – Zonneveld, Seuntjens, and Looms are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandnes Ulf – Hoiland, Haugland, Westlye, Andersen, and Vindenes are absent.
Fredrikstad – Dure and Holm are absent. Habseb may return.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce – Vukovic, Golanski, and Kuzera are absent. Lech and Sobolewski are doubts.
Pogon Szczecin – Lawa and Hernani are absent.
GKS Belchatow – Wilusz, Szmatiuk, Michal Mak, Mateusz Mak, Nowak, and Basta are absent.
Polonia Warsaw – Kokoszka is absent.
Lech Poznan – Ceesay is absent. Mozdzen returns.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – Porebski is absent. Bandrowski is a doubt.
Polish Liga 1;
Olimpia Grudziadz – No absentees.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz – Hrymowicz, Wojcicki, and Maka are absent.
Miedz Legnica – Bledzewski, Hempel, and Zasada are absent. Alexandre and Wolczek may return.
Dolcan Zabki – Leszczynski is absent.
Brzesko – Wieczorek is absent.
Stomil Olsztyn – Niewulis, Strzelec, Lysiak, and Michalowski are absent.
Flota Swinoujscie – Opalacz and Kieruzel may return.
Bogdanka Leczna – No absentees.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – Kosirowski, Mroz, Szeliga, and Szymura are absent. Makuch, Swiatek, and Zinyak are doubts. Wisniewski may return.
Warta Poznan – No absentees.
Arka Gdynia – Da Silva, Benavente, Sobieraj, and Jarzebowski are absent.
Katowice – Rzepka and Pietron are absent.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Beira-Mar – Balboa is a doubt.
Pacos de Ferreira – Santos is absent. Angulo returns.
Gil Vicente – No news.
SL Benfica – Aimar, Carlos Martins, and Nolito are absent.
Olhanense – Luis Filipe and Verissimo are absent. Ivanlido is a doubt.
Moreirense – Andre Luiz, Castro, and Julio Cesar are absent.
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Desportivo Aves – Renato Santos and Wallace are absent.
Tondela – Jo and Tiago Carneiro are absent.
Leixoes Matosinhos – Alvaro, Danilo, Hernandez, and Pedras are absent.
Belenenses – Joao Afonso, Eridson, and Rambe are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Turnu Severin – No absentees.
CFR Cluj – Bastos, Martinez, Vass, Deac, Ganea, Ronny, and Sougou are absent. Andone has been sacked.
Concordia Chiajna – Bambara and Cristea are absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Pancu, Roman, Teixeira, Rui Duarte, and Constantin are absent.
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – No absentees.
Dinamo Bucharest – Danciulescu and Galcev are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Moscow – Romulo, McGeady, Welliton, Yakovlev, Kombarov, Gatagov, Parshivlyuk, and Pesyakov are absent.
Mordovia Saransk – Kuznetsov and Volas are absent.
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – Abayev, Ryzhkov, Ryzikov, and Buyvolov are absent.
FK Krasnodar – Lambarschi is absent.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz – Dacosta, Hubulov, and Grigoriev are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Hulk, Danny, Shirokov, and Zhevnov are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Jack, Fallon, and Considine are absent.
Dundee – Kerr, Grassi, O’Donnell, Stewart, Finnigan, and McCluskey are absent.
Celtic – Stokes, McGeouch, Samaras, and Nouioui are absent.
Kilmarnock – No news.
Hearts – Ridgers, Hammill, and Carrick are absent.
Ross County – Morrow, Scott, Cooper, and Corcoran are absent.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – King, Hogg, Ross, and Foran are absent.
St.Johnstone – Cregg, MacLean, Adam, Beattie, and Pawlett are absent.
St.Mirren – McGowan, McGregor, and Adam are absent.
Dundee United – Vignal and Mackay-Steven are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol – Albin, Colotto, and Lopez are absent.
Malaga – Baptista, Sanchez, Toulalan, Buonanotte, and Monreal are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Fabricio is absent.
Valencia CF – Canales, Feghouli, and Mathieu are absent.
Celta de Vigo – Insa is absent.
Deportivo La Coruna – Bodipo, Salomao, Aguilar, and Pizzi are absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Arana and Labaka are absent.
Barcelona – Cuenca, Puyol, Abidal, Muniesa, Pique, Mascherano, and Thiago Alcantara are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Mersin Idmanyurdu – Yattara is absent. Baris is a doubt.
Istanbul BB – Tekdemir is absent. Sokullu is a doubt.
Galatasaray – Altintop, Ujfalusi, Elmander, Baytar, Yildirim, Kaya, and Melo are absent.
Kayserispor – No absentees.
Sivasspor – Celikay, Cerny, and Chahechouhe are absent.
Akhisar Belediye – Yilmaz, Duymus, Yuce, and Bikoko are absent.