TFT Issue 552!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Celtic vs Barcelona – away win with -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Scotland between Celtic and Barcelona.
Celtic were minutes away from upsetting just about every gambler on the planet with their heroic display in Spain against the Primera Liga heavyweights. Don’t get me wrong; they were totally outplayed by Barcelona, as most sides are, especially at Nou Camp. However, Celtic’s defensive tactics worked pretty well until that late Jordi Alba goal.
The question on everyone’s lips today is almost certainly “Will they manage to do it again?”. For me, it’s a resounding “No”. Scotland is not an easy place to play as an away side because of the underdog mentality that Scottish sides have and the fanatical support of their fans. You won’t find many louder stadiums in the UEFA Champions League than Celtic Park, I assure you.
However, that’s really Celtic’s only weapon against Barcelona and I doubt that it’ll phase them too much. Celtic will have the upper hand from set pieces and will undoubtedly play a physical game to try and irk Barcelona but again, that’s nothing new to them. Barcelona have looked much more vulnerable at the back this season than they have in the past so don’t rule out Celtic scoring in this game against them. However, I have my reservations over them being able to defend against this magnificent Barcelona side. The Catalan outfit are too good at keeping the ball and moving it around in mesmerising fashion. I just can’t see how Celtic will handle them here, to be honest.
I don’t see lightning striking twice and Barcelona needing to come from behind again here. Celtic’s defending and composure since that game in Spain has been bloody awful and I think that they’ll get caught out here. Celtic had to be at their absolute best to nearly get a result in Spain; Barcelona have another few gears to go up, if they choose to. I think that they’ll get an early goal and with Celtic feeling as though they have to work harder at home to keep their fans on their side, I think they may push on and be exposed again by Barcelona. Ultimately, I do think that there are a number of ways to Barcelona beating the handicap here as long as they get the first goal.
For me, the -1.5 handicap on Barcelona is well worth a flutter tonight with the above in mind.
Verdict: Barcelona to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Sporting Braga vs Manchester United – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Well, you guys know by now that I’m a United fan. We’ve somehow got nine points from three games and my answer as to how that has occurred would simply be “God knows!”. I liked our tactics in Romania because you can see what Fergie is trying to do with the team going forward but it fell foul of an early goal from the hosts. In the games against Braga and Galatasaray, though, United have been out-thought in both games and should have conceded more goals than they did. A mixture of naive defending, a lack of protection from midfield, and outdated tactics mean that our European game just isn’t good enough at the present time. We have the personnel and experience to win games like these but honestly, I think you’re wasting your time if you take us to do so. Our game is far better suited to winning in the Premier League, I assure you!
So – what to expect today? Well, United can’t defend in Europe and Braga can’t defend anywhere so to me, we should see goals. Braga have an excellent midfield that caused us a lot of problems in the reverse fixture. Their mobility and passing was a constant issue and Braga ultimately scored twice from it. Braga are a good side, to be blunt, and that’s especially visible at the AXA Stadion. This side works very hard and is always a goal threat. Their defending is cataclysmic, though – they can and will concede against anyone that applies a sufficient level of pressure.
This game matters more to Braga than United in terms of qualification to the next round so I think that they’ll push on and try to get three points. United have the pace and individual ability to harm them on counter-attacks and I think that we will. I would be surprised if this game ended without both sides scoring because there should be ample opportunities for it to happen. I really wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market because anything could happen in this encounter. However, taking over 2.5 goals suits me just fine at 4/5 with the firepower on display today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Chelsea vs Shakhtar Donetsk – lay Chelsea at 9/10.
Now, this is without question my boldest pick of the day but I’ll explain my thoughts behind it.
Right – Chelsea are doing fantastically well this season; we all know that. Do you know why that is, though? I have my own opinion and I suspect that most people will share it, based on discussions that I’ve had throughout the course of the current season. Essentially, Chelsea have changed their tactical approach to games as they want to play a more entertaining brand of football. I don’t know if Abramovich was inspired by Barcelona’s success but he’s basically gone out and signed some terrific attacking midfielders in the shape of Hazard and Oscar, who partner the ever-impressive Mata in a three-pronged midfield attack, usually behind Torres. That foursome is absolutely deadly; no questions asked. Sides are finding it hard to deal with such talent and with Chelsea also having physical strength and organisation at the back, they’ve become an even harder side to play against.
So – why oppose them today? I’ll tell you why; Shakhtar have played this style of football a lot longer than Chelsea have and it shows. On the few occasions that Chelsea have met a side this season that can knock the ball around as well/comfortably as they can, they’ve really struggled. That’s not a criticism of theirs, it takes time to adopt new tactics. However, it only shows when they face a side that has been doing it for some time. It showed against Arsenal (although defensive mistakes gave Chelsea the win), it showed against Manchester United, it showed against Swansea City, and it showed against Shakhtar Donetsk in the reversal of this fixture. Those four sides are notorious for playing good football and Chelsea looked out of thei depth in each of those games when their opponents turned it on.
Now, Chelsea obviously have experience and the home advantage so I won’t underestimate that. However, Shakhtar are basically a very good side nowadays. They’ve had old Lucrescu at the helm for a long, long time and this squad is very much moulded as he wants it to be. They keep the ball well, have plenty of pace, and make plenty of chances, especially when they’re attacked. They have their own defensive frailities (the occasional lack of pace, the suicidal goalkeeper Pyatov, who can’t consistently keep shots from range out) but they’re a good attacking side and I don’t think that they’ve been fazed once in the current tournament. Indeed, they’vee looked very comfortable indeed and I expect that to continue today because they have no fear. Shakhtar are a very good footballing side nowadays and I think that this is a great platform on which to show it.
For me, the value has to be in laying Chelsea here. They’ve played a lot of tough games in a row and I think that they’ve really struggled. As long as the Ukrainians don’t buckle and manage to play their game then a surprise could be on the cards tonight.
Verdict: Lay Chelsea at 9/10.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Sporting Braga – Ismaily, Anibal, Djamal, and Carlao return. Paulo Cesar and Mauro are absent.
SL Benfica – Luisao, Matic, Martins, and Aimar are absent. Nolito and Almeida return. Melgarejo is a doubt.
Bayern Munich – Gomez and Badstuber are absent. Mandzukic is a doubt. Robben returns.
Spartak Moscow – Suhi, Romulo, Pesyakov, Parshivlyuk, McGeady, Yakovlev, Welliton, and Emenike are absent.
CFR Cluj – Deac, Martinez, Vass, Sare, Ronny, and Ganea are absent. Sougou returns.
LOSC Lille – Digne, Ryan Mendes, and Rodelin are absent. Debuchy, Basa, and Beria are doubts.
Barcelona – Thiago Alcantara, Cuenca, Puyol, Muniesa, Abidal, and Pique are absent.
Valencia CF – Piatti, Canales, and Mathieu are absent.
Juventus – Vucinic is absent. Pepe is a doubt. Matri returns and will start alongside Quagliarella.
Galatasaray – Elmander and Ujfalusi are absent.
Celtic – Izaguirre, Rogne, Forrest, Hooper, and Lassad are absent. Samaras is a doubt.
Copa Sudamericana:
Sao Paulo – Osvaldo, Canete, Ganso, Fabricio, and Paulo Miranda are absent.
French Ligue 1:
Sochaux – Boumal, Mikari, Daf, Carlao, Cros, Peybernes, Lopy, Duplus, Butin, Prcic, and Doubai are absent. Dias returns.
Evian Thonon Gaillard – Bugnet, Dhaouadi, M’Barki, Khelifa, M’Madi, Barbosa, and Mensah are absent. Rabiu, Cambon, and Kone return.
Scottish Premier League:
Motherwell – Hutchinson and Saunders are absent.
Dundee United – Vignal is absent.