TFT Issue 546!
FreeFeatured game
Palermo vs AC Milan – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Italian Serie A game in Sicily between Palermo and AC Milan.
Over the years, playing against any side in Sicily has proven to be a horrible task. Even the heavyweights struggle against Palermo and Catania and that should be the case again today, although for different reasons this time.
The complication with taking on Catania is their tenacity, their physical game, their skill on the ball, their pressurising game. With Palermo, it’s more about their capability to score goals freely, which naturally causes problems to a number of Italian sides.
Since Gasperini became the boss of Palermo, however, they’ve adopted a very unfamiliar style and are doing surprisingly well with it. Yes, Palermo have reverted into a more typical Italian side, keeping clean sheets as a priority before pushing on to score goals. If you’d have said to me last season that there would be an instance this season where Palermo don’t score for three out of five games in a row then I’d have laughed at you but here we are. This side has formed a rather strong and determined defence that sides are finding it hard to score against. Gasperini has done that part of his job well, I feel – it looks like sides aren’t going to be scoring very easily against Palermo anymore.
The downside to the above change is that they don’t score as many goals. Palermo struggle more than most with goalscoring when you consider that they put defence first now. It’s an obstacle that most Italian sides have to overcome at some stage but Palermo simply aren’t well-equipped to do it. I really, really rate Fabrizio Miccoli up front for Palermo. I think he’s a fine example to the younger players in the Italian game and his fitness despite his advancing years is admirable. Not only that, but he’s very good on the ball when it comes to creating chances, moving off the ball, and striking the ball in that crafty way that he does so damn well. However, the reason that he flourished at Palermo was because their samba style gave him plenty of support up front, including their wing-backs from last season’s 5-3-2 formation (Balzaretti being one of the main ones, who is now with AS Roma). Gasperini’s new style means that Miccoli isn’t able to damage sides as much as he used to because he’s simply not that quick nowadays and Palermo don’t have much to help him out with. Hopes are high for Uruguayan striker Abel Hernandez after his displays last season but he’s not scored this season and he’s out today anyway. Where else do Palermo fans look? Dybala is too young to affect Palermo as they’d hoped he would. I think it was David Trezeguet who recently said in an interview that players are leaving Argentina too early in their careers and Dybala is a classic example of that. Who else can damage sides for Palermo – seriously? Brienza isn’t particularly good and Budan is simply a lanky target man. All of these strikers need support and Palermo don’t have much of it. Donati, Barreto, Arevalo, and Ilicic form a very tenacious midfield that is good on the ball but I see very little ability when it comes to beating men and again, that really hinders Palermo’s attacking avenues. Although we can expect strong defensive displays from Palermo in the near future, I very much doubt that we’ll see them score many goals without assistance or an inspired display.
In many ways, this is the ideal game for AC Milan. The last thing they’d want with their fragile confidence is to take on a rampant Palermo side that will attack them and score goals. No, they’d much rather take on a conservative Palermo side that won’t readily attack them, that will sit back and allow them to become confident on the ball. Milan welcome back Muntari to help them boss midfield and he was instrumental for them last season, in my view – he really impressed me in that campaign. I think his presence today will make Palermo’s task even harder to win the midfield battle today, even with Donati keen to impress against one of his former clubs.
So – will Milan win in Sicily? Tricky. Very, very tricky. My instinct says that they’ll nick it but I’m not stupid enough to back them when they’re playing so unconvincingly. If you look at the Milan squad of today, you see a number of grafters that would sooner die than surrender the ball but you don’t see many players that are capable of making things happen. One of the few who can is Boateng, who is out today, which does not help things. Robinho is still on the sidelines – he’s another – and Montolivo is too busy adorning his own reflection to give a shit about the cause. I like Montolivo as a player but as a person, he’s definitely not a Milan player. He plays for his own greed and adornment rather than for the shirt, which is very un-Milan, in my view. Pato is too fat and/or unfit to be playing for Milan right now and Bojan is a joke. I’ve never rated Bojan, to be honest – plenty of promise and little delivery. Pazzini is a good target man but he needs help! El Shaarawy has been the leading light of this Milan side so far and he’s a bit too young to be carrying the team, you know? I just don’t see much that I like about this Milan side from a goalscoring perspective and the fact that Milan haven’t scored in two out of their last four games speaks volumes. I won’t read a single thing into Milan beating Genoa as those two clubs have a very special relationship in the sense that Milan have first call on any promising Genoa players, Genoa get any players that Milan need to give games to, and you’ll always see Genoa give Milan points if they need him. It’s a fairly one-way partnership but it’s one that I’ve long had my suspicions over and I still believe them now. No, this is a much sterner test for the Rossoneri and I am not sure that they’re up to it, in all honesty.
So, as hard as it is for me to actually write, I am going for under 2.5 goals in Palermo vs AC Milan! Palermo, the former attacking nutcases that could and would score and concede against everyone, against a decent Milan side. It sounds crazy in my head but it does make sense with the way things are going at Palermo right now. Milan may nick this one but I find it really hard to see this one going over 2.5 goals. Milan are too bereft of confidence to push on and score again if they take the lead and Palermo are very cautious nowadays. I just can’t help but feel that taking under 2.5 goals at 5/6 is worth a punt here, especially considering the lack of creativity and mobility in the attacks of both sides, not to mention the lack of variety on show.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional game
Anderlecht vs AA Gent – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
The odds are rising on Gent +1 Asian Handicap and I’m not entirely sure why. Admittedly, I’ve not heard any team news so I could be made to look a real prat here but from what I can see, I really don’t see many problems for Anderlecht here.
Ok – so Anderlecht lose at Charleroi in their last game. Yeah, it was surprising, and yeah, they pissed a lot of people off because of it. Is it the end of the world, though? No, of course not. Anderlecht had just come back from a disappointing 1-0 defeat in Russia against Zenit St.Petersburg so fatigue may well have been a factor at enthusiastic Charleroi. Either way, you don’t just lose your quality because of one bad game and I doubt it’ll be any different for Anderlecht.
Van der Brom was notorious with Vitesse for his sides producing spirited displays, if nothing else; he simply wouldn’t allow it to be any other way. Anderlecht have turned a corner under the stewardship of their Dutch manager in the sense that he’s not afraid of going against the grain, not afraid of giving the Anderlecht kids a well-deserved chance. The likes of Biglia now have a more important role as they have to teach the younger kids and subsequently the side has developed a strong cohesion as there aren’t any morons in their team. True enough, their defence isn’t the best and it will concede under pressure. However, I rate their ability to keep the ball and I like that they’ve named Mbokani as their top-drawer striker (he is very much a confidence striker – it’s done him the power of good) and all of this makes this Anderlecht side predictably good, especially at the Constant Vanden Stock.
So – will they beat Gent here? They really should do, especially as they have the voodoo sign over them. Not only that, but this Gent side is unrecognisable to the side that we saw last season. Almost all of their talented attacking players have left and they now look very predictable. Don’t get me wrong here – Mboyo and Arbeitman are very good strikers when they’re fit and playing well. However, Gent lack the creativity in midfield to help them out nowadays and with instrumental midfielder Thijs having only appeared twice for them this season, it’s no surprise that they struggle against the bigger sides. On paper, their away record this season looks pretty good, you know? They’ve scored in all of their away games and have only lost once along the way. When examined more closely, though, two of those games were against newly-promoted sides, one was at ten-man Standard de Liege (who can’t defend as it is), one was at a mediocre Germinal Beerschot (where they needed a last-minute goal to equalise) and their defeat came at a very good Zulte-Waregem side. The fact is that fate has been pretty kind to Gent this season, in my view. I respect the job that Ferrera is doing because the fact that Gent are still winning games is impressive when you consider all the players that they’ve lost. They’re still playing some decent football and they’re working hard too so I’m sure they’ll upset Anderlecht today if their hosts don’t put the effort in. However, that really is their only weapon against Les Mauves nowadays and that’s pretty thin, in my view – they need more here.
I’m not going to lie to you, gents – Anderlecht’s record against Gent is fucking terrifying! They’ve not lost against Gent since 2006 and they’ve beaten them on fifteen out of their last nineteen meetings in all competitions. At the very least, Anderlecht should have enough to win this game today, especially with their quality advantage, thus activating the insurance part of this bet. I think Anderlecht have too much in the final third for Gent to contend with, all in all, so taking Anderlecht to beat the -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me a lot at evens.
Verdict: Anderlecht to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Team news
Italian Serie A:
Palermo – Milanovic and Hernandez are absent.
AC Milan – Mesbah, Robinho, De Sciglio, Strasser, Didac Vila, Boateng, and Antonini are absent. Muntari returns.