TFT Issue 56!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Independiente – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Argentina between fellow Argentinian clubs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza and Independiente. The reversal of this fixture ended 1-3 in favour of Godoy Cruz de Mendoza so you could be forgiven for expecting a straight home win here.
The home win is priced at 4/5 and my first impression was that it was a good price. Why? Well, Independiente are threatened with relegation from the Primera Division, which is unthinkable for a club of their size and stature. Therefore, Independiente have been resting players for their Copa Libertadores games as they bid to beat the drop. They did at home to Godoy Cruz de Mendoza and lost so why not away too?
Well, as much as I think Godoy will win the game, I’m not going to touch it here. My reasoning is simply that Independiente have taken almost a full-strength team for this game whereas they rested the likes of Silvera in their last meeting. I don’t know if Independiente are required by the rules of the competition to name their strongest squad for this game as they did name a lot of first-team players in their last squad to face Godoy Cruz de Mendoza but only fielded their youngsters en mass and if the same happens again then Godoy will almost certainly win this game as the Copa Libertadores is not only the Holy Grail to South American sides in general but it’s even moreso for little Godoy Cruz de Mendoza, who have never had a more successful season than last year and subsequently had never appeared in continental competition before either.
However, Independiente are on a bit of a momentum boost at the moment and they may want to prolong it here. They demolished Newells Old Boys 4-0 in the Primera Division and were winning 0-1 at relegation rivals Quilmes until the dying minutes when they conceded and drew 1-1 despite being the better team throughout. Independiente are a decent side and are better than their hosts, in my book – let’s not forget that this side won the Copa Sudamericana in the last twelve months! Whether they show it or not is another matter, however.
Ironically, Independiente are actually still very much in this tournament despite their best efforts not to be and a win tonight would open the group right up. Independiente are a massive club and I cannot accept that they’d readily give up the prestigious Copa Libertadores so easily whilst it remains within their grasp to obtain so I think they may just use their momentum to show up tonight. However, Godoy Cruz de Mendoza enter this game on the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions so their morale is high too, especially as one of those wins was at a far superior Estudiantes De La Plata side. What can we expect from them tonight? They’ll be committed and potent, as ever, but possibly even moreso given how much this tournament means to them.
With the above in mind, and also the news that Independiente miss star defender Velazquez, I think there’s a good chance that this game will go over 2.5 goals. All three of Independiente’s group stage games thus far have gone over 2.5 goals due to either resting players, making stupid mistakes, or allowing Silvera and Defederico to take their chances. All three of Godoy Cruz de Mendoza’s Copa Libertadores games have gone over 2.5 goals too with their determination and tenacity accounting for where their talent restriction comes into play. Godoy are generally not reliable in defence but you can usually bet on them to score and Independiente boast a similar claim. Therefore, with the above in mind, over 2.5 goals appeals to me tonight.
Team news – Independiente miss Castillo, Velazquez, Barcia, and Gabbarini.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.