TFT Issue 63!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Guarani Asuncion vs Cruzeiro – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores clash in Paraguay between Guarani Asuncion and Cruzeiro. Much ado has been made about the bloodshed following Cruzeiro’s last visit to Paraguay when they faced Cerro Porteno but everyone seems confident enough that that won’t be repeated tonight.
To be fair, I think they may be right, too. Guarani Asuncion’s displays have been highly disappointing so far in the Copa Libertadores and they’re actually out of the tournament following four consecutive defeats. Guarani have been ineffectual in attack since the stupid sales of attacking midfielder Fabbro and striker Teixeira pre-season and are deservedly suffering as a result. Guarani Asuncion formerly coped with being poor defensively by outscoring their opponents but without the departed duo, they simply look poor all around. Escobar, Benitez, Notario, Caballero, Ovelar – it’s hardly terrifying, is it? Guarani are struggling to score goals in the Division Profesional, let alone the Copa Libertadores! They’ve bagged twice in four games in the Copa Libertadores whilst conceding twelve times, which is an average of three goals conceded per game. Three out of their last four Copa Libertadores home games have all gone over 2.5 goals because they’ve conceded at least once in all of those games whilst usually bagging the token home goal that South American sides tend to obtain at somepoint. Guarani have nothing to play for here but pride and that should really loosen them up one way or another, in my view. Let’s face it – they’re not going to sit back and defend in this game because they’re not good enough to do it so I think they’ll “join the party” in this one.
Visitors Cruzeiro have been the most impressive Copa Libertadores side by a mile in the current campaign by smashing goals past just about everyone. They’ve played four games, won three times, and drawn once. They’ve scored an amazing fifteen goals during those four games with their only failure being the altitude test in Ibague against Deportes Tolima. Even more impressively, Cruzeiro have only conceded one goal along the way. The reversal of this fixture in Brazil ended 4-0 to Cruzeiro and although I don’t like backing heavy away wins on the continent for obvious reasons, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar scoreline tonight. Cruzeiro simply have a lot of everything in their team, ranging from experience to pace to determination to skill to finesse. Their attack is one the best in Brazil with Thiago Ribeiro continuing to impress alongside Wellington Paulista and Wallyson. Guerreiro and Montillo bring steel to the midfield with the rest of their team boasting pace and/or experience. Cruzeiro are very much the superior side here and it really should show. However, Uruguayan defender Victorino has been travelling around Europe with Uruguay, facing Estonia away before the Republic of Ireland away just yesterday so he’s going to be tired here. The same could be said for Henrique in midfield, who travelled to England with the Brazil squad to face Scotland so there may be a few tired players out there for Cruzeiro tonight and I think there’s just enough there for Cruzeiro to concede, especially as the hosts tend to get their token goal in their home games.
This isn’t a particularly hard away game as far as South American games go. There’s no geographical advantage for Paraguayan sides in general so there’s no advantage there. With a win guaranteeing Cruzeiro a place in the next round of the competition and their only remaining game after this being a do-or-die game against Estudiantes De La Plata in Argentina (which the hosts on that day will most likely need to win if they lose in Colombia tonight, which I expect them to!) so they’ll want to wrap it up here. With the hosts having nothing to lose and the visitors likely to play their usual attacking game, over 2.5 goals at evens interests me a lot here.
Team news – Guarani Asuncion miss Juan Patino, Angel Ortiz, Victor Gomez, and Pablo Caballero whereas Cruzeiro miss Jose Ortigoza and Ernesto Farias.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens